The Boom in Merino Wool.

New Zealand Mail, Issue 1424, 15 June 1899, Page 7

The Boom in Merino Wool.

(From our Special Correspondent.) BRADFORD, April 28

Interest supreme centres to-day in merino wool. Like all other commodities in times of ‘boom” it is relatively scarce and in strong demand. In all places alike, both in countries of production as well as in the consuming centres of England and the Continent, merino wool stands paramount, and whether or not there will be sufficient to meet the needs of manufacturers is a much debated question. It is four years ago since there was any movement in the wool trade which will compare at all with recent developments in merino wool, and even the factors that were then in 1895 the chief operating forces, are to-day entirely different. In the year mentioned fine quality wool boomed in consequence of the good trade Yorkshire manufacturers were doing with the United States after the repeal of the heavy McKinley duties, but even in 1895 the prices touched for the article were sadly below those ruling to-day. We are now face to face with a totally different set of factors, and there is combined ivitli them those elements which spell permanence and stability in prices, while a further advance still is highly probable. In looking at this subject, the question of supply is the most important factor, which is determining to a large extent what prices shall be. Unlike the iron and other trades, the textile industry cannot be said to be very brisk, but undoubtedly demand has overtaken supply, and with the combined demand of other foreign manufacturers every ounce of merino wool will be wanted before another clip is available. It is not known by everybody, but wool is changing in character almost every year, and both quantity and quality are materially affected by droughts and bad weather. It is this predisposing element that is the cause of the shortage there is in merino wool, and it will take years of good seasons to bring hack the flocks of Australasia to a thorough state of; efficiency, and an increase in numbers such as flockniasters want. For the past four years-'Aus-tralia has been visited each year in succession by a terrible drought, which has

cost the country at least twenty-five millions of sheep, at the same time greatly reducing the wool-growing capacity of those that were left. It is estimated by all the best authorities that there are fewer sheep in Australia to-day than there have been in any year since 1836. In this connection take the following official figures relating to the number of sheep in the premier colony, namely, that of New South Wales, and this will show how rapidly the fine wool yield has been diminished in the leading centre of production : Dec. 31. No. of sheep. 1885 37.820,906 18,56 39.169.304 1887 46.965,152 1888 46,503.469 1889 50,106.768 1890 55,986,431 1891 61.83L416 1892 58,080.114 1893 56,980.683 1894 56,977,270 1895 47,617.687 1896 48,313.790 1897 43.500.000 IS9B 41,099.088 So severe has been the c.rought since the above 1898 returns were taken that the very best Australian authorities compute that at least t vo million slit op have died since the present year commenced, and that to-day there are not more than 38,000,009 sheep in Nev.South Wales. The same thing lias prevailed in the other Australian colonies, with perhaps hardly so heavy a. death-rate in Queensland, and so our principal supplies of merino wool have grown tremendously less since 1891. But no material difference was felt in the market until the beginning of 1895, when, owing to the largely increased supplies, and the poor trade doing, the quantity became excessive, and on the arrival of the new clip prices had so dropped that l!:e trade said there was one clip in advance. Now the production of merino wool in the whole of our British colonies, including South Africa, will be better understood if we look at the output in the number of bales, which is as follows: Year. No. of Bales. 1895 2.313.000 1896 2,134,000 1897 2,096,000 1898 1,994,000 We are able to give a still more interesting statistical table, because it applies only to the countries producing merino wool, our colony of New Zealand non producing 80 to 90 per cent, of crossbre.l wool. The following are shipments from Australia alone; the whole of which arc practically merino wools : Year. No. of Bales. 1891 1,309,563 1892 1.478,917 1893 1,462,220 1894 1.529.941 1895 1,596.402 1896 1.477.348 1897 1.477,217 1898 1,301.034 1899 1,271,300* ;f Estimated. Now the total bales shipped to this coufi.try during the past five years just totals 7.123,000 bales. It is significant, but if the production of 1895 had been continued during the past four years, Australia would have supplied us with just about 8.000,000 bales; thus in four years rreduction has been reduced by 1,000.009 bales. Then other countries have furnished us with less supplies of merino wool, principally South America, while the flocks of the United States hare been sadly decimated, so we may safely say that consumers have been robbed of 1.500,000 bales during the past four years, and with what results we shall presently show.

But what has been the effect upon the article? To state that the textile trades of this country, the Continent and America have not been aware of this shortage is stating what is not the case, -for the whole trade lias been quite aware that the supply of merino wool has bedn a constantly diminishing quantity. But up to quite recent date it has been content to go along in the most happy-go-lucky style, seemingly regardless of consequences, but many now admit that they have been caught “napping.” Just as showing what a jump lias been made, the following table gives prices for what is technically known as GO’s, “tops,” that is, merino wool that has been “combed,” preparatory to it being spun into yarn, and which are known in the trade as a standard article : Date. Price. Month of January 21d per lb Month of February 204 ~ } , Week ending March 4 20} ~ ~ ~ ~ March 11 20} ~ ~ ~ ~ March 18 21 ~ ~ ~ ~ March 25 21,V ~ ~ „ April 1 22' „ „ ~ ~ April 8 224 ~ ~ ~ ~ April 15 244 ,> •> ~ ~ April 22 26 ~ ~ On the Continent the boom is just the same, and prices, if anything, are a shade higher. In fact, look where one will, merino wool in the raw state is to-day at a premium, and higher prices still are very probable. The raw article has now been rising for the past year, and is considerably dearer than at this time last year, and it is certain that before many days have passed another sensible rise will take place. The London colonial wool sales open next week, and fifteen per cent, advance is already a foregone

conclusion, and being practically the last sale this year v.'hen any quantity of merino wool will be on offer, there is every prospect of there being quite a scramble for the article. What the effect will be on coarse crossbred wools, which are at a record price in point of cheapness, remains to be seen, but fashions to-day are all on fine-haired garments, and this is a strong factor in giving stability to present prices for merino wool. Already manufacturers have been compelled to raise their prices for such things as worsted coatings, and by and bye tho rank and file will feel the results of this boom in merino wool.