FEDERAL POLL

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXVII, Issue 23769, 24 September 1940, Page 8

FEDERAL POLL

COALITION'S CHANCE REDUCED MAJORITY LATEST VOTE ANALYSIS / LABOIJB LEADER'S SEAT By Telegraph—Press Association —Copyright (Received September 23. 10.30 p.m.) SYDNEY, Sept. 23 On the latest returns of the voting in the Commonwealth election, held on Saturday, the Sydney Morning Herald expects the United AustraliaCountry Party coalition Government, led by Mr. P. G. Menzies, to be returned with its majority reduced from 10 to eight. All the primary votes have not yet been counted, but whatever party wins its ma'jority will be very small. The Herald gives the state of parties as under:— United Australia . . . . 23 Country 14 Labour 30 Doubtful 7 The Sydney Daily Telegraph says the latest count indicates that the Government is likely to retain office with a majority of at least three seats. , Mandate for Government The Prime Minister, Mr. Menzies, •aid the election must be regarded as a clear mandate for the Government to prosecute the war with the utmost vigour. "Had New South Wales been in line with the other States, there would have been a landslide in the Government's favour," Mr. Menzies said. "I expect the position in both Houses to be the same as before. "We had been told that it was impossible to win the Senate in the five States, but it looks as if we have. I am not surprised by the New South .Wales vote, where local issues and influences have swung against us; My vote in my own electorate of Kooyong is , the greatest encouragement I have ever had in politics." Mr. Menzies declined to comment on the prospects of forming a National Government or on the possible reconstruction of his Ministry. "Testimony Not Conclusive" The official Labour leader, Mr. J. Curtin, said the results suggested that the Government had not had the conclusive testimony of public opinion. In view of his likely defeat he has deputed Mr. F. M. Forde, deputy-leader, to speak on behalf of the Labour Party. The Melbourne correspondent of the Daily Telegraph says that fresh overtures to the Labour Party to form a National Government will be made by Mr. Menzies as a result of the elections. Position of Labour Leader There is a definite prospect that Mr. Curtin will lose his Fremantle seat to the United Australia Party candidate, ! Mr. F. R. Lee. It is generally believed in the electorate that the preference of the Independent candidate will go to Mr. Lee. X-.

The latest count increases the probability of Mr. Curtin's defeat. Mr. Lee is now only 34 votes behind him. The blame for this reversal is attributed partly to the over-confidence of Mr. Curtin's immediate supporters and partly to Labour's refusal to join the "War Cabinet. Tasmanian Seat Eegained Political circles in Perth report that, should Mr. Curtin be defeated in Fremantle, which is declared to be inevitable, Mr. A. E. Green, who is in illhealth, would be prepared to resign the Kalgoorlie seat in his leader's favour. Mr'. 'Green is the only member of the last Parliament who was not opposed in Saturday's election. The Government has regained the TVilmot seat in Tasmania, which was lost to Labour after the death of the former Prime Minister, Mr. J. A. Lyons. , At the present stage, in the aggregatei official Labour has secured a majority of the votes cast. The total of informal votes will be high.

< ' SENATE ELECTION PROGRESS OF COUNT SWING IN NEW SOUTH WALES y SYDNEY, Sept. 23 Although the count of votes cast in the election for the Senate is still-too limited to make any accurate forecast possible, the Government may return its Senate candidates in every State except New South Wales. This is the only- State in which Labour has a lead in the votes so far counted > and it appears likely that three Labour Senators will be returned. Government candidates are well ahead in all other States, and it is likely that they will all be returned. This would result in the return of 16 Senators supporting the Government and three supporting Labour. Of the Senators •who did not retire 14 support Labour and three the Government. The new Senate, therefore, may consist of: — Government .. .. .. 19 Labour 17 If* however, the Government loses its majority in the Senate, the possibility of a double dissolution lator arises. This problem will not have to be faced immediately because the retiring Senators will not complete their term until June 30 next.