HITLER HESITATES

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXVII, Issue 23620, 2 April 1940, Page 7

HITLER HESITATES

ARMIES AT STANDSTILL FACTORS IN SITUATION DIPLOMACY IN THE EAST LONDON, March 28 The fact that Germany's widelyadvertised "Easter Terror" has not taken place suggests that Hitler still hesitates. Probably the German Army chiefs continue to be adamant against a Western offensive, 'which —no matter in which direction it was undertaken —would be costly and abortive. The German armies remain, as since November, an ever-present threat to Belgium and Holland, but Germany■ realises more clearly than before the visit of President Roosevelt's envoy, Mr. Sumner Welles, that a broach of Belgian or Dutch neutrality would make a deep impression on the United States. There is no sign of the German armies moving in the direction of SouthEastern Europe, where, action at present is taking the form purely of diplomatic and economic pressure. Allied Air Initiative Possible Some military commentators express the opinion that the Scapa Flow and S.vlt raids heralded the commencement of "total aerial war," but even in this branch of warfare Germany is not likely to act rashly, inasmuch as the lesson of Finland was overwhelming, namely, that air power has not achieved decisive results. The German High Command is aware that only a tardy and unexpected display of Russian administrative capacity, coupled with weight of numbers, brought victory in Finland. If the Russian Army had failed on the Karelian Isthmus, unquestionably the air force could not have defeated the Finns. Therefore, the Germans are not likely to expand their air attacks against well-defended British naval depots, ports and munition works, knowing, as the Sylt air raid told them, that the British Air Force will retaliate in double measure. Indeed, a more likely development is an Allied air initiative when the strength reaches figures giving the necessary superiority. Steady Pressure of Blockade The defeat of the magnetic mine campaign shattered the hopes of Hitler's boasted secret weapon. Germany is,probably silent about the degaussing device against mines. Britain is constantly seeking to close the gaps in the blockade, and has signed nine agreements with neutral countries as the result of trading difficulties since the outbreak of the war—namely, Belgium, Holland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland. Spain, Turkey and Greece. These pacts cover countries within the most effective blockade zone.

Questions have recently arisen regarding enlarged United States exports to Western European neutrals. The discussions are proceeding amicably, following Britain's refusal of navicerts for American lubricating oil destined for Europe. The slow but steady pressure of the blockade is responsible for Germany's activity in South-Eastern Europe seeking to secure Rumania's oil, but there are other rich resources of minerals, grain, cattle and timber on which Russia also is turning a covetous eye. The traditional Russian plan, "On to Constantinople," cannot have been entirely dropped. Importance of Oil Supplies -- It is assumed that Germany entered the war possessing a reserve of'between three and four million tons of oil of all kinds. It is estimated that, after allowing for reduced "civilian consumption, one and a-half million tons would be made available to..the German Army in 1940. If the Rumanian negotiations succeed, the German Army might expect two and a-half and even three million tons in 1941. Remembering that the British Expeditionary Force is using 500 tons of petrol daily under non-fighting conditions, and also that the German Army is 30 times larger than the British Expeditionary Force, it would appear that Germany must preVent the Allies from developing "total war," or find herself in a situation where immediate victory would be the only alternative to the immobilisation of her whole war machine.

An invasion of Rumania might be the signal for the destruction of the' oil wells, as happened during the Great War of 1914-18. Even if Germany succeeded in gaining possession of the oil wells intact, it would be a considerable time before she obtained substantial supplies from them.

WAR RISK RATE By Telegraph—Press Association —(Copyright (Received April 2, 12.40 a.m.) MONTREAL, April 1 Canadian insuranco companies have reduced the war risk rate on neutral ships travelling from Atlantic ports to Australia and Far East via the Panama Canal from one-half of 1 per cent *to three-eighths.