THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS MONDAY, MARCH 11, 1940 DAYS OF RUMOUR

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXVII, Issue 23602, 11 March 1940, Page 6

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS MONDAY, MARCH 11, 1940 DAYS OF RUMOUR

Humours of negotiations to end the war of Russia on Finland are flying fast and far. What they mean is not clear. They are too numerous and persistent, however, to pass unheeded. The rapidity of theii arising is a fact of major impoi tance, and its relation to the pi'esent stage of the conflict is to be taken for granted, together with a general conviction that' the Finns cannot, unless circumstances quickly change, hold out much longer. It must be obvious to everybody that, were their magnificent defence in no peril of collapse, talk of peace terms would not be current; but for this prospect, the talk would have been rather of a different sort of interest on the part of Powers not openly taking sides. Notably active in the new confusion of diplomacy is Germany, whose concern would probably have been militarily proRussian had the Red Army been faced with indefinite resistance. Such a contingency would not have suited Germany at all, for its prolonged drain on Russian resources would have worn away whatever moral and material advantage the Soviet Government was able to render Herr Hitler in his campaign. It can be reasonably assumed that he has no wish to see Russia dominant in the Baltic, but a Finnish victory would be equally distasteful: a Russian subdual of Finland, with a consequent curb upon Sweden and Norway, would be to his liking, since it would rid him of the fear that these two Powers, with Denmark, emboldened by the Finns' success, might abandon neutrality and throw in their lot With Britain, France and the remnant of Poland. To dislike Russian advance in the Baltic is one thing, to have. that sea entered by the Allies is an alternative fraught with menace to his plans.

Germany's eagerness for an early peace in Finland favourable to Russia has therefore produced, at this juncture, a diplomatic activity in which resumption of hope in the Berlin-Rome axis is manifest. Just how far the virtue of the axis has survived the shock of the RussoGerman pact is doubtful. One of Herr Hitler's henchmen, Marshal Goering, has said that "Germany and Italy are determined not to allow a reactionary alliance to prevent the necessary reorganisation of Europe." This may be little more than- wishful speech ; the rapidity of •German arrangements for a consultation in Rome does not necessarily show confidence in. Italian collaboration in achieving the sort of end -to the Finnish fighting that Berlin wants to see. All through the piece, since Russia joined forces with Germany in crushing Poland, Herr Hitler must have been apprehensive of Russia's exploiting of the compact, sooner or later, in her own particular interests. That the Germans are not altogether pleased with the compact has been already indicated, and now Marshal Goering has been sent a communication from the German colony in Helsinki protesting against the Russian bombing of civilians there and beseeching Germany to intervene on behalf of all civilised nations against this brutal behaviour of Soviet _ airmen. No notice will be taken of this appeal, but it serves, in its own peculiar way, to emphasise the possibility that between Russia and Germany nothing more than a half-hearted union of purpose, based on immediate expediency, is likely to be realised. Herr von Ribbentrop knows this as well as anybody, and his mission to Rome, whatever its precise purpose, may prove quite as difficult as he must suspect in view of rooted Italian alienation from Russia.

The diplomatic confusion will proba,bly be clarified, to Germany s disappointment, by the sudden shifting of the chief venue of negotiation from Home to Moscow. In spite of Herr Hitler's wish to bring axis politics again to the forefront, he may find himself out-manoeuvred by M. Stalin in the course of proceedings at the Soviet capital. Nor can he regard with equanimity either the prospect of Herr von Ribbentrop's hearing of a few home-truths at the Vatican or the possibility that from Washington may come a definite offer of intervention in European affairs. Whichever way he looks, the chances of his success in directing any peace settlement in Finland cannot appear bright. Russia, may, without regard to his desires, proceed to enforce drastic demands upon the Finns. These demands, it is credibly reported, are shaped to secure territorial and other gains designed for Soviet safety. Safety from whom and for what 1 ? It would be absurd to suppose that Russia is afraid of destruction by Finland, and the only serious conclusion is that the suggested terms have as their object an unhampered opportunity of extending power in the Baltic. So thought comes inevitably back to a developing rivalry between Russia and Germany for supremacy in that sea. With Poland crushed and Finland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark subserviently neutral, it seemed likely to become a German lake —until Russia, by cowing Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and then picking a quarrel with Finland, manifested a determination to contest that purpose. Germany faces the prospect of paying an exorbitant price for the connivance of the Soviet Government in the destruction of Poland. No wonder Herr Hitler is feverishly anxious at the moment to have a hand in the negotiations affecting Finland. In the meantime, while rumours fly and diplomats flit about, the Finns fight on. Much is at stake, for them and for others, in these days of grave crisis..