ECONOMIC TRENDS

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXVI, Issue 23378, 21 June 1939, Page 17

ECONOMIC TRENDS

POPULATION ASPECT

EFFECTS ON INDUSTRY IMPORTANCE FOR PRODUCERS Changes in the structure of industry and population, and the widening economic function of the .State, were considered by Mr. H, 11. Hod well, senior lecturer in economics at Auckland University College, in a public address under the university extension system last night. Dr. Julius Stone, professor of law, - was •chairman; Mr. Hod veil examined the phenomenal population increases in the liUji century. These, he said, were mainly I due to a fall in death rates, but any further spectacular rise in the expectation of life was unlikely in the future, and population changes would depend mainly on the birth rates. He asked what were the chances of birth rates increasing and thus reversing the trends that were operating, and said that, as far as could be seen, the chances were very poor indeed. Almost Immediate Decline The fact which clearly emerged was that population in many countries, notably Kuropean and American, would be smaller than it was to-day. and that the decline would begin almost immediately. To think about population as increasing would be a grave mistake and would lead countries into mistaken policies. For instance, said Mr. Rodwell. was it .wise to regard the United Kingdom as being capable of absorbing ever-in-creasing quantities of meat, butter, cheese and wool front New Zealand if Britain's population was about to decline? Mr. Rodwell also examined the effect of-declining populations upon the population structure, resulting in more adults and fewer children; and the economic structure, resulting in n decreased demand for necessities and a greater demand for luxury and nearluxury go'ods. The demand would consequently be less stable, more likely to fluctuate with conditions of prosperity, and the production would be more rigid. Intervention of State Difficulties had been increased by the aftermath of the war, and it had steadily become more widely recognised that the "catch as catch can" methods of the 10th century were no longer adequate. It had been seen that deliberate action must be taken to ensure that the goods really needed were those produced, and industrial fluctuations must be reduced to a minimum. A'rapid extension of State intervention had been the outcome. One result of this was economic nationalism, leading to isolationist moves, but Mr. Hodwell said he believed that later the S'.ates would come to realise the real interdependence that existed between them, and would want to coordinate their policies. Mr. Rodwell also found that such State intervention must be planned iot the future, with due regard to the importance of declining populations, so that coining generations would not be burdened with unnecessary costs.