WEATHER BUREAU

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXV, Issue 23083, 7 July 1938, Page 18

WEATHER BUREAU

RESEABCH DIVISION AUSTRALIAN PROPOSAL LONG RANGE FORECASTING [FROM OUR OWN CORRESPONDENT J SYDNEY, June 30 Experiments now going on at tho solar observatory on Mount Stromlo, near Canberra, may make it possible to forecast general, rains or abnormal drought conditions well in advance. '1 he establishment of a special research division of the Meteorological Bureau to develop this seasonal forecasting of weather, on the basis of Antarctic conditions, offering the hope of providing farmers with advance knowledge, is t.i be undertaken by the Department of tlie Interior.

Such long-range weather forecasting would mean a revolutionary change in methods. It would involve discarding the theory that tropical influence is tlio primal factor in Australian weather. The Minister of.the Interior, Mr. McEwen, said that long-range forecasting, which would enable primary producers to prepare for abnormal weather, had boon looked upon as an experimental undertaking up to the present, although it had been one of tho main factors influencing the support of Antarctic expeditions, and the bureau would bo asked to bring it as far as possible into a practical field. Advantage to Primary Producers " I cannot hope for immediate spectacular results, but 1 regard this work as of vital importance, especially as it appears that a great advance can be made by a rigorous analysis ol Australian meteorological data now available,' Mr. McEwen said. "This in itself would yield valuable information concerning weather cycles, especially in droughtstricken areas, and would enable the various theories which have boon advanced to be tested properly.

"Long-range forecasting has proved disappointing in many respects, but I am impressed by indications that there has been some real promise in certain lines of investigation," Mr. McEwen added. "In this country of variable rainfalls, the economic benefit which would accrue from its success is so great that 1 regard it as a definite public duty to take steps for the testing of every rational theory.

" Although any rapid achievement is unlikely, experts agree with me that the expenditure will be fully justified. Certainly* no greater contribution could be made by the Government to the welfare of primary producers than the ultimate success of the Department of Research." Data from the Antarctic Exploration of the upper atmosphere has indicated that there is a parallel variation between conditions there and those on the ground. Certain experiments are being carried out in conjunction with the radio research authorities. The Commonwealth will be divided in meteorological zones, one or moro of which will fall under a State branch of tho Federal meteorological service. If the present experiment is successful, the Department of tho Interior will expand tho service by establishing moro weather bureaus. The decision to establish the new bureau has been made on reports from advocates of the Antarctic theory, including Dr. E. Kidson, chief meteorologist of Now Zealand.

Dr. Kidson told tho Science Congross in Melbourne in 1934, that Australian meteorologists knew nothing of forecasting. He said that Australia's "weather capital" was in the Ray of Whales. Australian experts say the difficulty is a lack of continuous data from the Antarctic.