THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS MONDAY, MAY 30, 1938 JAPAN'S RAID ON CANTON

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXV, Issue 23050, 30 May 1938, Page 8

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS MONDAY, MAY 30, 1938 JAPAN'S RAID ON CANTON

On*ce more "the horrors of war have been let loose" on a leading Chinese city by Japan. The phrase is Japanese—and official. It was first given eminent use when General Matsui, commander of the invading forces, sent an ultimatum to Nanking, dropping it from the air. He demanded the surrender of the city by noon of December 10, failing which these "horrors" would be inflicted. The demand was ignored, the threatened aerial assault was launched, and on December 13 Nanking fell. An orgy of looting and brutality followed, the manifest intention being to create a reign of terror more ruthless than Peking or even Shanghai had been made to suffer. This time it is Canton. | Various attacks upon it have been j made within recent months, but this j bombing .is far more serious than I any previous onset. The details of havoc wrought suggest a major effort to kill, do damage and spread panic. It underlines Japan's determination to Complete the conquest of China, and to achieve this without the slightest regard for any rules of war. The location is only slenderly related to the main battle-front, and it offers no threat. Were Japan concerned any longer about the good opinion of the outside world, there might be an attempt to justify this visitation on the broad ground of military necessity, but such a care has been abandoned. By the road of periodic apologies to neutrals for reckless "incidents," Japan has passed to scarcely-veiled truculence toward third parties, and there has appeared a wanton concentration on subdual of the Chinese, no matter what,else may happen. It is impossible to say with exactness how far this purpose is being achieved, but a significant fact is the Japanese admission that a war begun with obvious optimism has had to be changed into one of long campaigning. To this admission must be added the evidence, supplied by both sides, that the conflict is as yet indeterminate. When all repo'-ts are severely discounted, they are sufficiently indicative of Japanese reverses in the northern theatre of war to give this heavy bombing of Canton important significance. It cannot, even if considerably extended in the southern provinces, become a decisive factor. Japan is too gravely committed in the north, by territorial occupation in the vicinity of Manchukuo and by elaborate tactics there against the massing of China's defences, to hope for much strategic gain by attracting opposition southward of Shanghai. Without doubt, the heavy blows dealt Canton will arouse resistance there; but to crush that and assume effective control throughout its environs would involve Japan in an expenditure of energy and resources that can be ill spared from the main scene of action. Every consideration makes that main scene critically absorptive of Japanese effort. It was naturally, inevitably chosen, and to weaken there would be crippling, if not fatal. Even a sweeping success in the south would compensate for a series of defeats in the crucial northern zone. Moreover, it would entail a far more costly campaign, to win and to hold any such local success, for it would greatly lengthen the distance from the base of all supplies. In other 'words, Japan cannot win in the region of Canton without jeopardising the whole purpose of the attack on China. Yet it would be hasty deduction from the conspicuous facts to treat this destructive bombing of Canton as a mere feint. Japanese activity has been driving southward'of Shanghai in recent weeks—to Foochow, to Amoy, and to Swatow. This extending of the coastal front may be designed to spread fear and thus make an indirect contribution to eventual victory. The ruthless nature of the assault on Canton supports this opinion. Nevertheless, Japan probably over-estimates the value of such a blow.

There was a time when Chiang Kai-shek, the great unifier of China, might have been doubtful of the loyalty of the Cantonese and their neighbours. He came to power by overcoming their militant opposition, first of all. Accomplishing that, and dealing likewise with the north, he essayed a political master-stroke by choosing a midway capital, Nanking. A combination of firmness and clemency resulted in an opportunity for wise fostering of a new national consciousness, of which Canton has now a full share. It seems unlikely, therefore, that the Cantonese will prove any less defiant of the invader than are others; indeed, to judge by happenings elsewhere, Japan's assault on Canton is likely to weld still more firmly the southern allegiance, and the probability of this outcome diminishes further the chances of Japanese browbeating in the south. No view of the situation is complete, however, unless it takes into account international reactions to this assault. British interests at Hongkong, too close at hand to be forgotten, must compel a renewed watchfulness against Japanese encroachment. American trade in the region has for generations been nationally important. Japan's southward thrust brings the arena - too near to French Indo-China to be pleasant. Possibly Japan, following a practice marking every stage of this conflict, has again chosen a time when many European Powers are embarrassed by a tense situation in the West. Only time can tell how far she means to press this adventure.