FEAR OF NEW WAR.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXVII, Issue 20620, 19 July 1930, Page 11

FEAR OF NEW WAR.

ITALY AND FRANCE.

IN THE AIR AND IMMINENT.

AMERICAN DIPLOMAT'S VIEW. By Telegraph—Press Association—Copyright. NEW YORK, July 17. Mr. James Gerard, who was United States Ambassador to Germany in Mr. Woodrow Wilson's regime, expressed his belief to-day on bis return from France that a new war is brewing between Italy and France. " War is imminent. It is in the air," said Mr. Gerard. Asked if he thought France would be tho aggressor he replied. " 1 should not say so. She has too much to remember of the last war. I think France fears it." CAUSES OF DISSENSION. RIVALRY AND GRIEVANCES. DANGER DEEMED EVER PRESENT. " Unless the Italian dictator dies and tho I' ascist regime collapses—two things utterly unlikely—Europe must now face the grim fact that a war between France and Italy becomes an immediate and a continuing possibility," wrote Mr. Frank 11. Simonds, a well-known American war correspondent, in tho Washington livening Star. France is preparing for invasion, and tho Duce lias reached the limit of domeslie development of a naturally poor country. Apart from all consideration of the possibilities of future post-war settlements, the fact that must be grasped is that henceforth, for an indefinite period of time, Europe has to face tho likelihood of a new war. The danger is ever present ; it may be precipitated by an accident which will tire Italian spirit beyond restraint. " It may be postponed over long years, as was the disaster of 1914; but the speech of Signor Mussolini at Florence puts Europe and the rest of the world on notice that peace henceforth is precarious." Problem One of Expansion. i An American journal of recent, date said : " France and Italy are separated foday hy grievances as real, arid a rivalry as keen, as separated France and Germany 20 years ago. In a nutshell, the problem is the old one of expansion. "With 37,000,000 people, and a population rapidly increasing, Italy finds herself with limited African possessions. France, one the other hand, with 40,000,000 people, and a population at a standstill, has a vast colonial empire in North Africa of over 5,000,000 square miles. To obtain Italy's co-opera-tion in the Great War the Italians claim that fiance promised to make them concessions, which later were refused. Since then this matter has been a subject of dispute and conflict. "The recent upheaval in Abyssinia was at bottom a Franco-Italian clash. A dispute has gone on over tho south western boundary of tho Italian colony of Libya, where the Italians have taken the authority into their own hands, and taken possession of part of the disputed territory. " It is folly for the world to shut its eyes to the dangers in this situation, especially with a man of Signor Mussolini's type at the helm in Italy. A break may not come to-day or to-morrow, but this setting has all the elements of trouble, unless somehow it is corrected."

Outbreak May Come in Albania, Signer Mussolini has claimed that Italy returned from Versailles at the close of the war with " a mutilated victory." The London Naval Conference failed to compose French and Italian naval policy, and subsequent gestures toward conference have not interfered with keen rivalry in building naval armaments and' increasing armies. The Italian press interprets every French movement, including M. Uriand's proposed Federation of Europe, as mere camouflage for clinching French political, military and economic hold—called " national security"—within tho ring of new nations created by the Treaty of Versailles. How, when and where mav Mussolini ' • » actually dare to try breaking this status quo? asks tho Literary Digest. Perhaps in Albania, suggests Mr. Paul Scott Mowrcr, director of the Chicago Daily News foreign service. Ho says:— "Signer Mussolini is not, merely waving his arms and hurling meaningless defis at France. He is building up among his followers the belief that Italy is being cheated of her rightful possessions. The Italian press has suggested that France should cede to Italy Nice, Savoy, Corsica and Djibouti, and transfer the Syrian and Cameroon mandates.' Competition in Armaments. Continuing Mr. Mowrcr says: "While Italy's official demands arc nothing liko so immoderate, it cannot be. overlooked that the press, which is stirring up senti"ment, for these impossible demands, is merely Signor Mussolini's unofficial mouthpiece. And when II Duce shouts that cannon and machine-guns aro finer than words, the inflamed crowds respond with ' Down with Franco'! and ' Corsica is ours'! " Meanwhile, we aro told that Italy is building 40,000 tons of warships, and that France is preparing to match this bid for supremacy with 55,000 tons; Mint. Italy is raising its armed forces to 530,000 men, and that France is reported to be planning to increase her Army from 590.000 to 635.000. Even so, no one believes that France would attack Italy or Italy would attack France. " Tho odium of starting another war would serve as an effectual deterrent. Hut it is not difficult to picture a situation which might involve these two Powers and leave the question of who was the aggressor as much in doubt, as was the responsibility for starting the Great War. Albania is virtually an Italian protectorate. Her neighbour, mroslavia i« an ally of France. A political revolt in Albania might necessitate the landing of Italian troops to preserve order. Jugoslavia would be almost certain to resent this. " A year ago France, in case of war between Italy and Yugoslavia might, have remained neutral, for French opinion was hostile to far-off commitments, but now there is a possibility that Franco, too, might be involved. Herein lies the real danger, European statesmen tend to believe."