ELECTIONS IN CANADA.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXII, Issue 19125, 17 September 1925, Page 12

ELECTIONS IN CANADA.

TWO DOMINANT ISSUES. TARIFF AND RAILWAYS, CHANCE OF A "LANDSLIDE." [from oor own correspondent.] TORONTO, Aug. 22. Two great matters of public policy will inevitably be in the forefront of the campaign following the expected dissolution of tho - Canadian Parliament. (The dissolution was announced on September 5 and the general election will be hold on October 29). They are the tariff and the. railways. Which will be the dominating factor will depend on events and on what the party managers regard to be good strategy. Canada has had a protective tariff for xnore than 40 years. Though modelled on United States tariff policy, it has never approached the heights of Washington's imposts. Governments have come ans Governments havo gone, some advocating higher tariffs, some advocating freer trade, but none of them has made any substantial alteration in the tariff wall erected many years ago. Mr. Mackenzie King's Government, which came into power in,1921, did make a few reductions but they wore not large and were strictly circumscribed in their application. The Conservative Policy. It. is expected that the approaching campaign will see a drive on the part of the Conservative Opposition to raise Canada's tariff much higher than it has ever been before. Mr. King's "flirting with free trade" will be denounced and the argument will be put forward that a radical tightening of restrictions on Canadian trade is necessary if Canadian business and Canada itself are to ,be preserved. Not only will greatly higher import duties be advocated, but the party is also definitely committed to a policy of embargo or at least export duties against the export of raw materials such is pulp wood and several other articles. There is littlo doubt that a Conservative victory will mean the application of a policy of protection of home industry such as Canada has not hitherto known. The basis for the campaign will be the continuance of industrial depression, with factories closed, many businesses being carried on at a loss, and the accompanying exodus to the United States. These conditions have produced an unrest which no doubt contributed to the downfall during the last few weeks of the Nova Scotia and New Brunswick Governments. It is the kind of unrest which is dangerous to any Government, and is the greatest hazard the King Government has to face. The Attitude ol! Ontario. The tariff appeal is going to have a strong influence in the Province of On-1 tario, which still elects one-third of the total metnbership of the House: of Commons, Conservatives are very confident i about Ontario. They say they will sweep the province. One goes so far as to say that while will be Liberals' elected, .there is. not a single seat in the whole 82 in the province that is safely Liberal. ' He names seat after seat at present regarded aa Liberal strongholds that the Conservatives are going to win. Liberals, in turn, smile at these .predictions and declare the worst they can do in Ontario is to win 20 to 25-seats. Outside Ontaria the tariff will not be so large a factor. Quebec is industrial, but has never worked up much excitement about tariff policies. Tariff is regarded in Quebec as a matter of business to be confined to business offices. In their views a wide gulf lies between politics and business. As the Maritime provinces and the' Prairie provinces are supposed to be opposed to high .tariffs, Conservative tactics in those areas will no doubt be modified to meet local conditions. The Oompeting Bailways. A powerful campaign is developing with the object of bringing to an end the career of Canada's largest public owner-: ship enterprise, the Canadian National Railways. From the moment the Gov-, ernment took over the enterprise, private ownership interests in general and the Canadian .Pacific Railway in particular have viewed with disquiet the prospect of . indefinite competition from such a source. If the competition was ineffective, it would be disastrous for the country j if it was effective, it might be disastrous to private interests. Whether the, competition has been effective or not may be a matter of controversy; but under Sir Henry Thornton it has been, without question, aggressive and real. The definite objective now in certain quarters' is to get rid of it. The most powerful financial interests in Canada are at work in this campaign. There is little doubt; that many of the activities of the special committee of tho Senate which last session took evidence in camera (in itself a strange proceeding) and subsequently issued a report /recommending that the Canadian National Railways be merged with the Canadian Pacific had their inspiration and direction in certain financial offices in Montreal. The Senate committee's proposed merger has been vigorously attacked by newspapers supporting public ownership on the s ground that it proposed to guarantee dividends in the C.P.R. stock in perpetu ity and that it offered no real solution of the problem of getting rid of current deficits on the national system. But if one scheme is rejected anpther will be forthcoming. The issue at' stake is too i vital to be decided in one skirmish. Issue Hot Yet Stilted. Just how the railway issue will be injected into the approaching campaign is not yet clear. Traditionally the Conservative Party and the Canadian Pacific Railway have Jbeen allies. On the other hand it was Mr. Meighen's Government that took over the lines now in the Canadian National Railway system. How the parties will be affected by the issue is therefore not clarified, but it is the kind of issue which might easily become the dominating factor in the campaign—behiiid. the scenes, if not on the platform. Senate reform and ocean freight rates are two subjects in which the Government has shown some activity, but it is doubtful if enough progress has been made to give them any great significance in the contest. The Government's recent abortive proposal to establish a Canadian flag will, no doubt, figure largely. Western Canada has its own special problems, such as freight rates and the proposed Hudson's Bay Railway., And the Maritime Provinces also hay,e a number of local issues which will be assiduously cultivated by the'politicians. . Conservative Prospects. As Mi*. Meighen has only 52 supporters in the present House of Commons out of 245, nothing short of a landslide will secure him a majority. Liberals deride the idea of any such possibility. Even conceding that in line with recent provincial contests he will carry 20 out of 29 seats in the Maritime Provinces, and that he carries 60 seats, out - of 82. in Ontario, they say he will still not secure 100 seats altogether, whereas 123 will be necessary to give him a, majority of one. Following figures, according to Liberals, represent maximum of Conservative hopes:— Maritimes, 20; Quebec, 5; Ontario, 60; Manitoba, 3; Alberta, 1; British Columbia, 7; 96. Fifteen mpre from Ontario, ten more from Quebec uid fi.ve more from the West wodld, however, turn the trick. During recent weeks Mr. Meighen has been spending a great deal of time in the, to him, unpromising fields of Quebec and the West, out with what success is not known. It is conceded that the Progressive Party will largely disappear—at least in Ontario. In the West it will survive, although Liberals claim they will carry 12 of the 16 seats'in Alberta and substantial groups in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. . *