CRISIS IN THE BALKANS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XLV, Issue 13874, 7 October 1908, Page 7

CRISIS IN THE BALKANS.

BULGARIA DECLARES HER INDEPENDENCE. THE POPULAR WILL. PRINCE FERDINAND'S HAND FORCED. TROOPS READY FOR WAR. AUSTRIA TO ANNEX PROVINCES. SERIOUS INTERNATIONAL COMPLICATIONS. B» Telegraph.— Vttti Association.—Copyright. (Received October 6, 10 fl.m.) London, October 6. Diplomatists consider that the crisis that has arisen as the result of Bulgaria's declaration of independence, and Austria's treatehetl annexation of the Turkish provinces of Bosnia and Hei-zgovina, is likely to have the very gravest consequences. The Paris Temps states that the Tsar has come to no decision regarding Austria, but desires to act with France and Britain. It is understood at Constantinople that Russia has promised Turkey her moral support. It is reported at Adrianople that Bulgaria is summoning her reserves. .'.'-' : ; ; ' : '-.'■ ".. ' " '~',.:■:■; /'..". The Times declares that Bulgaria's audacious violation of the Berlin Treaty, and Austria's still more serious violation, are parts of a common conspiracy against the liberal system in Turkey. . Opinion in the city shows little alarm at Bulgaria's and Austria's action. Though the prices of foreign stocks declined, • they rallied later. Prince Ferdinand has telegraphed to the Sultan, expressing regret that he had been compelled by the popular will to declare the independence of Bulgaria, and expressing the hope that friendly relations would be maintained. : (Received October 7. 1.45 a.m.) . ; '■■*■ London, October 6.. -' The Constantinople correspondent of the Times # ;. reports that Ministers," replying to Prince Ferdinand, state that they, are unable to recognise the declaration of independence, as it is a breach of the Berlin Treaty, and affects the signatory Powers. . BRITAIN'S FIRM STAND. FLAGRANT VIOLATION OF THE TREATY. ~ ■ (Received October 7, 12.55 a.m.) -.\\ London, October 6. Router's Agency learns that the British Government cannot admit the right of any Power to alter the Berlin Treaty without the consent of the other parties, and therefore refuses the sanction of any infraction, and declines to recognise what is done Until the views of the other Powers are known, especially Turkey. According to Reuter, there is a general impression in diplomatic circles that Turkey's moderation or wisdom will avert a crisis. Although the news of the proclamation of Bulgaria's independence has created consternation in official circles, the public is not excited. It is generally expected that Turkey will only strongly protest against the violation of the treaty. I - The Austrian press strongly sympathises with Bulgaria, and deprecates a war, since Turkey loses nothing she has not already lost. - ~. ' — ■• - "—-■ • "'•' *'""- .;■'''■'■ WHY INDEPENDENCE WAS PROCLAIMED. BULGARIA'S PLACE AMONG THE NATIONS. (Received October 7, i.12 a.m.) Sofia, October 6. . M. Malinoff, the Bulgarian Premier, stated to-day that independence had been proclaimed owing to Turkey's ultimatum demanding the evacuation of the Orient railway within three days. - Prince Ferdinand read the manifesto of independence from the chancel of the ancient Church of the Forty Martyrs, and,appeared deeply impressed. He claimed that he and" Prince Alexander had made Bulgaria a nation fit to take an equal place in the family of civilised peoples. Though practically independent, the nation was ' impeded by certain illusions and formal limitations, which had resulted in a coldness of relations between Turkey and Bulgaria. _ Prince Ferdinand said that he and Bulgaria desired to rejoice at Turkey's political development, and hoped that when each was free and entirely independent their friendly relations would be strengthened. Inspired by the eacred purpose of satisfying national requirements and fulfilling the national desire, he proclaimed the ? independence of the nation. "Together with the nation," the Prince concluded, "I firmly believe this act will meet with the approbation of the great ; Powers , ...'■' ' The news was first received in Sofia with few signs of popular feeling. Later crowds surrounded the palace and cheered. NOT A CASUS BELLI, STATEMENT BY THE GRAND VIZIER. (Received October 7, 1.30 a.m.) Constantinople, October 6. Kamil Pasha (the Turkish Grand Vizier) states that he does not consider the proclamation of independence a casus belli, unless Bulgaria adopts a hostile attitude in regard to Macedonia. "If," added the Grand Vizier, " Europe is disposed to modify the Berlin Treaty, Turkey must accept the fait accompli." ' • \ ■'.■'■' » ■' (Received October- 7, 1.35 a.m.) * ' \ London, October 6. The Daily Mail's correspondent at Buda-Pest reports that three Hungarian army corps have been mobilised, and will proceed to Bosnia on Thursday. AN IMPORTANT RESCRIPT. RELATIONS BETWEEN AUSTRIA AND TURKEY. (Received October 7, 1.50 a.m.) .'"'..•„ London, October 6. The Vienna correspondent of the Times reports that a Royal Rescript is to appear on Wednesday, proclaiming the extension of the Emperor Francis Joseph's sovereign rights to the provinces of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Rescript adds that in accordance with Turkey's wishes, Austrian troops will be immediately recalled from Novibazar, in order to avoid a technical .difficulty, and Bosnia • and Herzegovina will be henceforth termed administration territory. , It is privately stated that all the Powers, including. England, have assented to the Rescript* 3

INDEPENDENCE DECLARED. TSAR OF THE BULGARIANS. ATTITUDE OF GERMANY. UNABLE TO RECOMMEND WAR. London, October 5. Telegrams from Sofia announce that Bulgaria to-day proclaimed her independence at Tirnovo, the ancient capital of the State, in the presence of Prince Ferdinand and the Ministry.'. ' ■; "' ~ ' The Daily Mail says that Prince Ferdinand will assume the title A Tsar of the Bulgarians, the title of the ruler of the country prior to the decline of its power and its absorption by Turkey. • The army is prepared for immediate war, and 130,000 men are ready to take the field at a moment's notice- ' In Constantinople, Germany is blamed for the action of Bulgaria. It is suspected that Germany seeks to humiliate the Young Turkey party after its recent success in forcing a Constitution from the Sultan- . /. \i.V :.:,, '. ■' Renter's Berlin correspondent states that it is officially announced that should the Porte ask the advice of the Powers respecting the use of an armed force against Bulgaria, as a result of her declaration of independence from the suzerainty of Turkey, Germany will be unable to recommend war. The reason given by Germany for this advice is that the Turkish army is Unprepared for war, while the Bulgarians are ready to take the field the moment an armed force en* tershef territory. The Paris correspondent of the Times, referring to Bulgaria's provocative attitude, as instanced by her declaration arid her mobilisation of troops, remarks that the peace of Europe may hang in the balance to morrow. ' ' ' j AUSTRIA'S CLAIMS, THE BOSNIA PROVINCES. SECRET NEGOTIATIONS. BRITAIN AND FRANCE NOT , . CONSULTED. . . London, October 5. The London Daily Telegraph states that Austro-Hungarian delegations will ott Thursday declare Bosnia; and Herzegovina to be Austrian Imperial and Royal Dominions. The Paris correspondent of the Times states that the Emperor Francis JoSef of Austria, in a letter, to President Fallieres, explains that he favours the demands of Bosnia and Herzegovina for a Constitution, but that Austria-Hungary's relations' with the occupied provinces are too anomalous to permit of the granting of 'a Constitution without the previous annexation of the provinces by Austria, The Times correspondent further states that the President has been informed, either in the letter'from the Emperor, or by a verbal communication from Count Khevenhuller (Austrian Ambassador at Paris),* . that Russia, Germany, and Italy had] already given assurances of their approval of the annexation, v *, ~ Apparently negotiations Were conducted between 'Baron von Aehrenithral (Austrian Foreign Minister), Prince von Buelow (German Chancellor of the Empire), M. Isvolsky (Russian Foreign Minister),, and Signor Tittoni (Italian Foreign Minister), in perfect secrecy, without the knowledge or co-operation of France and England, the announcement of the intended seizure being made when the agreement of the three Powers named had been secured. Le Temps, the well-known Paris daily, states that Austria is willing to propitiate .Turkey fey the restitution of the Sanjak (province) of Novibazar to the Sultan's dominions. • . /■'•■■:'■ . Italy has, perhaps, been placated, suggests the Paris correspondent of the Times, by the promise of a port in Albania and of a free hand in Tunis. The Times states that it is reported that France and England will formally protest against the lawless action of Austria in seizing the Bosnian provinces, and of Bulgaria in declaring her independence. The probability of a conference of the Powers to consider the situation is hinted at by the Times. -''.' FEELING IN ENGLAND, THE EFFECT ON 'CHANGE. V London, October 5. Though there was a sharp decline in; stocks on the London Stock Exchange on the resumption of business this morning, it is generally believed that peace will be maintained. The entire English press condemns Bulgaria, and severely blames Austria, for their procedure. The Evening Standard says that their action threatens one of the finest national movements in the world. The news of the action of Bulgaria and Austria was received to-day. in official and diplomatic quarters in London with marked disfavour. , n r ■ i* I BULGARIA'S AMBITIONS. WAR SPIRIT DOMINANT. "JAPANESE OF THE NEAR EAST. In "Pictures from the Balkans," John Foster Fraser, who forecasted just what has happened, writes thus oi Bulgaria's aspirations: — ;■•.-:■ The history of the country is a kaleidoscope. The Romans made a province of it. The Goths and the Huns overran it. Tribes, invaded it and butchered one another. The dominant tribe was that of the Bulgari; Finns with an Asiatic strain, and from ,the Volga regions. They .got mixed up with the Slavs—indeed, the Bulgaria more Slav than Bulgarian, though he does nob know it. The Bulgarian language was pure Slavonic. Modern Bulgarian is Slavonic,,'but fliurderjid by,.alien

peoples. In the 12th century the Bulgarian tribes consolidated and flung off the Byzantine rule. 'Then they fell under Servia. Next, both Bulgaria !and Servia. came under the Turks, and for nigh five hundred years remained stagnant. Russia, with an eye on' the Bosphorus, came as the liberator, and after the siege of Plevna and the : defence of the Shipka Pass, forced Turkey to'.'free Bulgaria. Then by the Treaty of Berlin, 1878, Bulgaria was constituted an ' autonomous and tributary Principality '■■ Under the suzerainty pi the Sultan. . "Seven years later northern European Turkey, called Roumelia, ■■■: but ; mainly,- inhabited by Bulgarians, united itself to its brother and became South Bulgaria. This growth of Bulgaria did'not please Russia, it was, all fight lopping off a piece of Turkey and erecting the little Bulgarian nation, Russia's child, to be claimed as her own ''Whenever it suited the Muscovite intention. But an enlarged Bulgaria, With possible ideas of standing alone,l brought scowls to the brow of Tsar Alexander til. All Russian officers, who had so kindly assisted the Bulgarian army, were withdrawn, ft was imagined Bulgaria lacked the brains to defend itself. The Servians, egged on. by Austria, made war On their neighbours. The Bulgars, tinder i their foreign Prince : Alexander, smashed ] the Serbs, and would have annexed Servia had not Austria, under threats, cried hall, and even made.the Bulgarians yield territory. So the. two countries have no love for each other. It rankles in the mind of Servia that it Was defeated ; it galls Bulgaria that it lost territory. Russia was wroth, with- Bulgaria strutting as a nation, instead of being dependent on Russia, which had done so much for it. Russia kidnapped Prince- Alexander, held him prisoner, let him go when Europe cried " Shame !" but suceeded by intrigue in making Alexander's life miserable, broke his heart, and caused him to abdicate. The country was in turmoil. .Then Prince Ferdinand of. ; Saxe-Coburg was chosen' by the, Sobranje, or Parliament, and • under his rule Bulgaria has - gone ahead. A "BIG" BULGARIA. The Bulgars are a democratic people, with exaggerated notions of independence. They are ambitious. They are rightly proud of the way in which their country has gone ahead since the Turkish shackles were cast off. Possibly they, exaggerate their powers; but- that -is natural.-V; There is a feeling that Bulgaria should win back by the sword What Austria forced it to cede to Servia. ' : There isa much stronger feeling for a Big Bulgaria, and eyes * are east toward Macedonia, where it. is alleged most of the Christians are of ; the Bulga.r race. The war spirit is dominant, though there is little of the splash and splutter which would be shown oy a ''more volatile people. ; It is a spirit which has its roots in the belief that the Bulgars are at last coming into their heritage, and have a large place to fill on the scroll of destiny. They have watched the Far East. ■ " If," was often said to me, " a little country like Japan can overthrow so great a Power as Russia, -why should not Bulgaria overthrow Turkey We are the Japanese of the Near East," ' A WELL-EQUIPPED ARMY. "There is something fine and noble," Mr., Eraser proceeds, "in the' way the little Bulgarian nation is equipping itself to meet a great Power, be it Russia or Turkey. Now and then I heard a groan at the burden of the army, which consumes a third of the'national revenue. It is borne, because there is no Bulgarian ■ who does not realise that his country any day may be called upon to fight for m ; independence—for the suzerainty of Turkey is but a name. I visited, and was shown over, the'great barracks beyond Sofia. 1 went out to the plains and Saw the men at drill. For its size the Bulgarian army is the best equipped and most efficient in Europe. It means business. Every detail >is attended to, every probability of warfare provided for. Conscription prevails. It embraces everybody. Even those who, for I special reaI sons, escape full consoriptiv© service must do duty in the reserve for three *moriths in each of two years; and then must pass into the active army reserve for nine years. In peace time a recruit enters the army when he is 20 years of age; in war time he starts his fighting at 18. Not till he is 45 years of age does a, Bulgarian escape from liability to serve. Even foreigners, after three years' : residence,; must serve, unless they have a special certificate of exemption. If Moslems pay £20 they can claim exemption 5 but as the Moslems remaining in Bulgaria are poor, very few escape. Bulgars afflicted with infirmities which prevent them entering the services must pay a special tax."/ The army lays' its grip on Bulgaria. The peace strength • is some ",;\ 3000" officers and 50,000 men, 6000 horses «and oxen, and 250 guns horsed out of 500.- The war strength is about 6000 -; officers" 300,000 men,; and 45,000 horses, and 2500 oxen. The army stands for Bulgarian independence. The young Bulgarian straightens himself, drops slouch, and walks with 0. proud glint in his eye when bis country calls upon him. Military service is popular.

BULGARIA V. . TURKEY. In the event of war with Turkey, Mr. Fraser believes that Bulgarian" arms will prevail. Concluding his "Pictures from the Balkans," he writes:— , " That Bulgaria— advantage of the revolutionary propaganda which ; is officially repudiatedill, before long, - pick a quarrel with Turkey there is little doubt;; Prince Ferdinand is 'against.: war; but popular fashion will be too strong for him. Greece will throw in her lot with Turkey, and Servia will probably come to an arrangement with Bulgaria. The in- | fluence of France and England will suc- | ceed, possibly, in keeping off ■ the interference of the other great Powers, though | Turkey will. assuredly have a financial ally in Germany. " At present Bulgaria is zealously preparing her armaments, as Japan, through long-years, prepared for the conflict with Russia. There is the, difference that whilst Russia did not really expect war, Turkey does, is also preparing, and in many quarters is eager. To imagine that Bulgaria— admirably, even superbly equipped as she [ is—will inarch through Turkey is, in my opinion, a huge mistake. I cannot resist the conviction, however, that in the end Bulgarian arms will prevail. It will bo when Bulgaria requires the I full fruits of her victory that- a- grave crisis for the peace of the whole of Europe will occur. Neither Austria nor Germany, nor Russia, nor perhaps Italy, will acquiesce in the creation of another Power in the Near East. ■ Roumania and the smaller States, like Montenegro, 'with no greater political ambitions than to be left alone, cannot be expected to be silent onlookers while' holding the knowledge that their ultimate fate will be. absorption. Albania will blaze with insurrection. A BALKAN CONFEDERATION. "That the picture I draw is black and pessimistic I realise. But it is no blacker than the picture which is 'n the mind of every diplomatist who understands the Balkan problem at its true, value. There; is a glimmer of hope that: the solution may be found in a great Balkan Confederation, with the Turks a .party to "that | Confederation. But that, it may be, is a : counsel of perfection. "At present Germany stands outside She will have no hand in the reform of Macedonia and the restriction of the power of the Sultan. The attitude of Germany is sinister. Her policy. is that of the long arm. Her price for aiding Turkey will be first concessions, then protectorates, then possessions. But with Turkey defeated she realises, as everybody realises, that the Balkans Will be a T hell-pot of anarchy, and she expects to be the Power which will subjugate , the ;< rivals. Over their weakened bodies she will march to the But who can doubt it must be a bloody road she will travel?"