THE POLITICAL SITUATION.

New Zealand Herald, Volume XXIV, Issue 8057, 19 September 1887, Page 5

THE POLITICAL SITUATION.

CURRENT RUMOURS.

SIR J. VOGEL AND HIS COLLEAGUES.

[by TELEGRAPH.—OWN" correspondent.] Wellington, Saturday. There has been a sudden rise in the political barometer. Rumours of all kinds are afloat. One of the latest is that the Premier himself means to oppose Mr. Scobia McKeozie in Mount Ida. I could hardly believe this when 1 heard it, but my informant said Sir Robert could not be in a worse case than he is in Dunedin liast. He must go somewhere, and the onslaught of Mr. McKenzie was a challenge to combat that; could not be mistaken. But the Premier (I said) if ha is beaten in Dunedin East will retire into private lift?, tie has said so. The answer was that Sir R. Stout could not afford to retire into private life under the shadow of defeat, which would keep him there many a year. The visit of Sir J. Vogel to Napier is « puzzle for most people. I was perplexed to find him in Wellington this morning. It was staled last night that there was a mistake about his going to Napier to speak there. To-night I learn that the Napier people are as much puzzled as those of Wellington, a telegram having been received there that Sir J. Vogel had absolutely declined to visit Napier to speak against Mr. Ormond. The Napier journals have applauded his magnanimity, but he is going to speak at Napier on the Saturday night before polling day. He is to go there by railway, and, 1 understand, his passage through the several districts will be utilised by the supporter* of his Government. 1 hoar that the " navvies in the Gorge propose to 'hump' through their district." The Treasurer will leave Wellington on Wednesday or Thursday next, so as to go by easy stages to Napier. Those who so lately regarded Sir Julius as a political Jonah will probably see him rebuke his colleagues who have been so harsh to him if ever they should get a political haven. It is said 011 good authority that he will not mourn to see them meet the fate which they intended for him " down among dead men." I do not say this iu a specific form, because it is obvious that official etiquette would compel Sir Julius to deny it, and I should be compelled to accept this denial no matter what the facts might bo I was possessed of. But I can assure you of the following facts which admit of no denial; — 1. Some of the best informed men in Wellington believe upon good authority, which they deem to be reliable, that Sir Julius would not be sorry but rather pleased if his two colleagues, Sir Hubert Stout and Mr. Ballance, should bu defeated at the hustiugs. 2. That whatever might have been the desire of the Premier and Native Minister to " cut the painter" some months since the control of the painter is now with the Colonial Treasurer.

3. That the present posture of affairs must end in the complete disruption of the StoutVogel Government between this time and the opening of Parliament. These three propositions are affirmed by the best political heads here, aud 1 may add that several of them have had many years experience of actual political life, and still exercise an influence in the Government of the colony. Some of them have constant social aud political intercourse with the supporters of the Treasurer and the supporters of the Stout- Vogel Government. They describe the present position of r.ffairs as follows :—Events, they say, have proved that the Premier is not acceptable to the people ; that the differences between Sir Julius Vogel and the Minister of 1 amis are radical in character, which was proved by the scene that took place in the House at the close of last session ; that the Premier and Minister of Lands are in accord on all questions of politics ; that the rasnlt of the elections will be to throw them over as political factors possessing any paramount interest; that Sir J. Vogel knows himself to be strongest without them; that he will probably tell them so before Parliament meets. Then, what is the Treasurer's position without them? He is backed by a strong party in Canterbury who will have nothing to do with his colleagues. He is the security which Canterbury holds for the construction of the. Midland Kailway, a favourable grain tariff, and the promotion of many South Island enterprises generally. if Sir R. Stout should retire into private life, the position of Mr. Ballance is one of isolation. If Sir R. Stout is returned for Dunedin East it will bo with loss of prestige, and much of his influence; but he has absolutely no potential voice in other parts of the colony. He may regard himself as one crying out in a political wilderness, but no one will go into the wilderness to hear him. Mr. Tole, since his departure from Sir G. Grey, has no following whatever. Tne illness of Sir G. Grey places him virtually outside the possibility of any new combination. Messrs. Larnach and Richardson were tho " specialists" of the Cabinet. Sir J. Vogel seea plainly, and docs not conceal his satisfaction with the result, that he will go into Parliament with a following sufficiently strong to exercise an influence upon any political arrangement that may be arrived at. He will use this influence, and he knows how to use it, in such a way that any future combination will find it to their advantage to have his support, if they are to have any prolonged existence. lam credibly informed that Sir J. Vogel sees in the further development of politics a prospect of becoming the '* fulcrum 1 ' of any combination whatever that can be matured.

1 would have your readers to understand that the above is a reproduction of the conversation of men of great political sagacity, who have, as I said, been many years connected with politics. The fact that they are to be found in the ranks of the Opposition gives additional force to the statement. I .npoke to a supporter of the Government upon the subjoct, who said in answer, "I believe that the above view of the case is well founded. I have observed much that is calculated to confirm it."