How Voters Changed

Northern Advocate, 1 October 1943, Page 2

How Voters Changed

There has been a greater change in public opinion, as revealed bv the general election, than is apparent from a direct comparison of the provisional counts ol’ votes east in the 1930 and 1943 elections. When allowance is made for the two electorates in which there was no contest, the reduction in the Labour vote becomes 74,000, but the increase in the National vote is nearly 22,000. The provisional count of the poll in 1938 gave a total of 855,600 votes in 11 le 76 European electorates. There were 19,000 .votes in Mataura and Avvarua, where there were no contests on this occasion. The total vote in 74 electorates in 1943 was 831,000, !as against 836,600 in 1938. If it is assumed that the reduction of 5600 votes represented 2500 Labour votes, 2500 National votes and GOO Independent votes, the distribution of the total vote in 74 electorates in 1938 was as follows:—Labour, 56.3 per centj National, 40.7 per cent.; and other candidates, 3 per cent. The change of opinion may, therefore be measured by comparing the aggregate party votes with distribution of the total n the 1938 proportions as follows: 1938 Ratios Actual Change p.e. p.e. Labour .. 56.3 407,898 47.4 393,605 -74.293 National . 40.7 338,250 43.3 359.91) 121.661 Others ... 3.0 24,932 9,3 77,564 152,632 831,080 831,080 This analysis indicates that of every 100 electors who voted in 1938 for the Labour Party, 84 again voted for Labour candidates last Saturday. Of the 74,000 electors who changed their opinions, 30 out of every 100 voted for the National Party and 70 voted for independent parties and individuals. The change in party representation is greater than in aggregate voting strength, fn 1938, the Labour Party gained 50 seats representing an average of 9500 votes per seat; the National Partv’r, total rate was equivalent to 14,630 votes per seat won. Last week the Labour Party’s vote was equivalent to 9840 votes for every seat won, while the National Party’s average was 10,900. Independents won two seats in 1938 with an average, of 14,600 votes: last week. / they periled 77.504 votes and fcecured only oh? seat, . i A I'T'- ;,-.g ■.