THE PROSPECTS OF WOOL

Manawatu Times, Volume XLIX, Issue 3492, 30 October 1926, Page 7

THE PROSPECTS OF WOOL

NO RELIABLE PROPHETS. OPINION OF A BUYER. "There is not a prophet in the world of wool whom I would honour. The more I have to do with tho trade the more am I convinced that there arc no prophets.” This is the considered statement of Mr H. T. Milnos, the well-known wool buyer of Christchurch, who has operated in the Dominion for the past 37 years, and who returned to Wellington over the week-end from a visit to the Old Country. Mr Milncs, when questioned upon the indications of tho market in England so far as Now Zealand was concerned, replied that none could prognosticate with accuracy how the season would turn out, "The best man in the wool trade,” he said, “and men to whom every wool grower looked for a lead, prophesied two years ago. Everyone followed them—we had to to some ex. tent—and with what results? -Almost every hale of wool which was bought was subsequently sold at a huge loss. In some cases the loss amounted to 50 per cent. Cause and Effect.

“Anyone who has bought wool during the past two years has lost money: and those who buy wool cannot operate at a big loss for two seasons and still hold the wool for bigger prices. They have had to sell for what they could get in order to got money.

“I might form an impression today—in fact I did when I was in England—and to-morrow this might be completely upset by a combination of the circumstances which contribute to the. fluctuating market. Very few of us can argue from the cause to the effect; the. causes are

“What is going to happen I eannot say: but at the present time I see no reason for any material and immediate alteration in the prices. Any fluctuation that docs occur will probably be the result of. speculation—not speculation of the man who buys a few bales hero and there, but of those who buy in huge quantities for overseas interests. It was speculation that mined us two

years ago. Continent Wants Wool

“It is true that when 1. left Home there was an appreciation in the price of half-bred wool and a decline in cross-bred; but this state might have lasted for but a day. T had left the shores of the Old Country only a few days when my own impressions of the market were quite upset. Continental buyers want the wool—France wants it and Germany wants it —but who is going to supply to these countries when the finance is in such a precarious state? They would lake the wool on the Continent, if they could get it on six months’ bills: but Bradford is not sure that the money will be forthcoming at the end of that time. Motive for Comment. Mr Milnes continued that many of those connected with the wool trade endeavoured to prophesy the trend of the market, over a certain period, but their only achievement was to incur the amusement of their follows. Usually Uient was a reason when any comment, was .made, and when he saw a prognostication of the season's prospects, he looked for a motive at the back of the statements. He personally dia not assume to have a knowledge of what was going to happen and whatever might be his opinion 10-day. this would probably be entirely changed on the, following day. The question was then asked: “What is the reason for the general belief that New Zealand is going to have a good season ill wool ?” Mr Milnes replied smilingly: “Hope springs eternal in the human breast.”