WEATHER NOTES.

Mataura Ensign, Issue 1132, 6 January 1903, Page 2

WEATHER NOTES.

By D. Gilchrist,

The rainfall last month was abnormal, but it varied in quantity according to the configuration of the looality, having been muoh heavier occasionally in the vicinity of high hills than in parts a few miles distant. Still the rainfall was phenomenal even in places whicft escaped the semi-tropical downpours At my residence, where only the prevailing rains were experienced, the rainfall was 6iin for the month of December, and for the yejvr 35'43in. The rainfall has riot been evenly distributed throughout the year, having been much heavier in the spring and summer than during the other seasons. The seasonal rainfall was approximately as follows, commencing with the Bummer of 1901: —

35 per cent, of rain fell in summer. » n „ autumn. 18 m „ „ winter. 27 n „ „ spring.

I have no data at hand showing what is the average seasonal rainfall in this country, and have not time at this moment to make it up from the meteorological reports, but I think it is safe to assert that the spring and summer seasons have not been the wettest until the last three or four years. It is a fact, however, that they have been muoh wetter than heretofore. The average seasonal rainfall in Britain is different from that experienced here recently, but there, as elsewhere, the weather is not alwayß characterised by uniformity. In Britain the average seasonal rainfall is 20 per cent, in the spring, 23 in summer, 31 in autumn, and 26 in winter.

The question frequently ariseß in the mind, 1 What is the cause of the exceptionally bad weather experienced during the last few months? No one can answer such a question, as the science of meteorology is in its youth; nor is anyone able to predict with certainty what description of weather may prevail more than two or three days in advance, unless be has telegraphic information as to the meteorological conditions prevailing a considerable distance away, say in Australia. Last June Mr Clement Wragge, Government meteorologist of Queensland (a competent observer who was once an assistant in Ben Nevis Observatory, situated at the top of the highest mountain in the British Isles), in reply to a query re. the great Australian drought, said that to his mind "it is as clear as an axiom, from which none can escape, that the physical condition of the sun, which undergoes periodic changes, is in the main responsible for this and all suoh previous droughts We maintain that the maxima and minima of sunspots, by very logic, must influence terrestrial meteorology in some way not yet dearly understood. We know that this hypothesis has been rejected, and oftimes ridiculed, but we should not be worthy of respect bad we not the courage of our opinions It is said, and with perfect truth, that excess or deficiency of solar energy should influence our entire globe, and some people think that if droughts obtain in Australial dry weather should also prevail in all other countries. This latter is a mistake, for such critics fail to recognise the potent factors attaching to latitude and physiographical environment, which most distinctly are modifying influences." In an article on " Sunspots and Life," in ' Knowledge, 1 for October, 1808, Mr A. McDowell, M.A., also confidently attributes meteorological phenomena to changes in the sun, asserting that there is reason to believe that we have more winter cold about the time when there are few spots on the sun than when there are many. In another article the following year, in the same scientific magazine, he says: " Are tfe not beginning to see that sunspot influence on weather is probably real, is probably, also, complex in character; and that the rough generalisations hitherto considered applicable to it may be found to need revision ?" Some people are ascribing the stormy weather to tbe proximity oi icebergs, but if masses of antarctic ice are further north than is usually tho case, the question naturally arises: What is the cansc of this? It would, perhaps, not be rash to ascribe it to periodic changes in the ruler of the solar system.

In addition to the loss and -unpleasantness occasioned by the bad weather, there is a feeling of uncertainty regarding the future, and a number of people would probably steer a different course if they knew that the unfavorable meteorological conditions prevailing at present would continue. The farmer, for instance, would, if practicable, sow seeds earlier than the time that has hitherto been considered the best season, in order to have some chance of getting a sufficient area sown before it is too late. But whether there is likely to be a recurrence of similar weather next year no one can foretell. It is probable that there are cycles of good and bad years. As weather records have not been kept long enough in this country, or, indeed, in any country, to say with certainty whether there are such periods, predictions could only be made suppositionally. Periods of five, eleven, eighteen, and thirty-five years have been mentioned, but the knowledge tabulated hitherto has not resulted in conclusive deductions. It is some comfort, however, to read that most of the land surface of the earth has been subject to a recurrence of cold and wet periods, alternating with warm and dry ones. Consequently the present wet period is probably only temporary. These notes might he extended indefinitely, but I shall conclude with a word or two on the supposed influence of the moon oil the weather. It is the popular belief that the moon has an effect upon the weather, but a scientific observer (Sir R. Ball) says that " oareful comparison between the state of the weather and phases of the moon has quite discredited the notion that any connection of the kind really exists." and this opinion is held by many observers, though not by all. One competent observer says that " there are at present signs, if I mistake not, that the denial of lunar influence on weather has been made too confidently." He has plotted a number of curves of daily barometrio pressure, from Greenwich data, to see whether any extensive correspondence with the moon's phases could be made out, and remarks that we seem to find this state of things : " A oertain definite relation to the moon's phases (speaking roughly, a barometric wave to each new and full moon) appears from time to time, and persists, perhaps half a year or more. Then it may disappear (from some cauße or other), to reappear later on." Others observers reply that there is no such influence except in a general way, and so the matter rests, but the discussion is interesting, as illustrating the fact that the judgment of science has sometimes to be revised, and in showing that some grains of truth can be found among the rubbish.