AFTER OTTAWA

King Country Chronicle, Volume XXVI, Issue 3449, 24 November 1932, Page 3

AFTER OTTAWA

TWO VIEWS OF RESULTS. PLAN WILL TAKE TIME. Export trade authorities making a close study of proposals advanced at the Imperial Economic Conference at Ottawa placed entirely different interpretations on the significance of the meeting, says the New York Times. Dr. Paul V. Horn, Professor of Foreign Trade at New York University, in an interview said the present conference constitutes the first step in a plan which will deprive American producers of a considei--able share in the British markets, while F. K. Rhines, export councillor of the Ernst B. Filsinger Company, predicted that the results of the meeting will have but a slight bearing on this country's future business with the Empire.

In a warning to exporters against taking the British conference too lightly, Dr. Horn said that England intends to knit her possessions together in close trade unity and the final result will be the erection of preferential trade within the Empire," Dr. Horn continued. "No agenda were drawn up for the Ottawa session and the statesmen sent there were left free to express their ideas on the needs of each Dominion. After setting up the machinery for further consideration of the problems, the conference will adjourn to meet again a year later in the Orient or Africa. In the course of the year ideas broached at the initial conference will have an opportunity to crystallise in each of the colonies. "It may take from two to five years before the plan is developed to its ultimate conclusion. In that time concessions and agreements will probably alter the programme in minor respects, but beyond a doubt the final result will be a serious setback to this country's sales to the British Empire." Offsetting to some extent the detrimental effects which Britain's action will have on American exports, Dr. Horn said, will be the fact that the United States will be drawn into closer trade relations with nations outside the British Empire, and, particularly, with Latin-Ameri-can countries. South American nations, excluded from British markets, he believes, will become more dependent economically upon the United States, and close tradingagreements will be worked out by the United States with the LatinAmerican Republics. Results of the Ottawa conference, in the opinion of F. K. Rhines, will be slight so far as their bearing upon the United States of America's exports are concerned. After the discussions regarding high preferential duties have been concluded I doubt if the general duty preferences now enjoyed by England and other members of the Empire will be increased by an average of more than 5 per cent.," Mr. Rhines said. "At the present time nations outside the British Commonwealth must overcome a handicap of

10 to 15 per cent, in preferential duties. In the majority of lines an additional 5 per cent, will not work a major hardship." Conflicting interests within the Empire itself, Mr. Rhines continued, are the best insurance the United States has against high tariff barriers and further trade restrictions. "Many of the Dominions do not accord preferential treatment to other colonies, as in the case of Australia and New Zealand," he said. "Australians also are friendlier to the United States than they are to Canada, and can be depended upon to vote against relations intended to hit this country's trade. India is closer in her trade relations with the United States than with England and many of the other colonies look to this country as their market for goods. "The one tangible result of the conference may be to put England back on the gold standard, and if that happens it will compensate ten times over for any trade disadvantages which may come to this country as a result of agremeents reached in Ottawa."