SAXBY'S PREDICTION.

Hawke's Bay Herald, Volume 13, Issue 1091, 12 October 1869, Page 3

SAXBY'S PREDICTION.

(From the " Southern Cross.," Ootober 8.) So far as Auckland is concerned it is impossible to conceive of a more complete contradiction of the prophecy hazarded by Lieutenant Saxby than nas been given by the nature of the weather during the past three days. Fine light westerly winds prevailed- during the greater portion of the sth and 6th, and, although: a change took place in the direction of the wind on the evening ofthe 6th and continued during yesterday, it was not marked by any particular atmospheric disturbance, all three days being extremely fine. The tides also, as will be seen from the table Eublished below, have not been unusually igh for spring tides, and the barometer has been most equable, the mercury standing high. No positive rule can be laid down to define the difference in height between spring and neap tides at any given place, the causes regulating the action of tides rendering it very variable. In some places the increase has been known to be over 18ft. during the course of one moon, and not more than 10ft. during another. The difference exhibited in Auckland is never so much as in the instances mentioned, 'but nothing extraordinary or unusual is disclosed oy the figures below, which, we believe, represent about the average daily rise of the tide at Auckland on the approach of new moon. The new moon dates from 1.59 a.m. on the morning of the 6th, and we have had four tides since the time that the unusual position of sun and moon so much feared by Saxby occurred, without anything remarkable being experienced. Considerable credence was given by tho pooplo of Auckland, to Sn*--by's prophecy, and we are informed that several persons stayed up during the whole of Tuesday night in anticipation of the predicted storm ; but the greater proportion of those who had even placed some degree of faith in Saxby were reassured by the fineness of the weather during the sth and preceding day, and took no precaution against the anticipated evils. It is very probable that storms have occurred in some parts of the globe during the days fixed by Saxby, and possibly in New Zealand, as it is seldom that fine weather on any particular day at this season of the year is universal throughout the colony, the differences in temperature and other local influences operating strongly on the weather. Should it be proved, however, that storms have occurred in some parts of the colony, it does not necessarily follow that Saxby's prediction has not virtually failed. The grounds laid down by him as the basis of his theory were not local, but, if they possessed any influence at all, would have affected the whole earth ; that they have not affected Auckland is a proof that the hypothesis is a fallacious one, and goes to support the opinion expressed by Sir John Herschel and other eminent astronomers, that no weather prediction given months before the day treated of is reliable. The tides and barometrical readings for the week have been as follow :—

High Tides at Hokianga —The Bonded Stoees Flooded. — It appears that Saxby 's predictions^ which have caused so much uneasiness in the minds of many throughout New Zealand, have been fulfilled in some places. A passenger who arrived by tho p.S. Ooomoremg -act ovoxuxigfrom Hokianga, via Eussell, informs us that on Monday last a very high tide was felt at Hokianga. The tide rose between four and five feet above the usual level of high water springs, necessitating the removal of everything from the bonded stores, which were flooded. Several of the settlers were much alarmed, fearing a higher tide on the following day, and the bonded stores have since been removed. At the Bay of Islands and other places on the coast the tides have been unusually high, but no damage has been done. At 10-30 p.m. on Tuesday, when the tide was about last quarter ebb, the sea rushed at a rapid rate up the Kawa Kawa river for about a quarter of an hour and then receded. The p.s. Coomerang, which was swung with the tide, was turned right round with the force of the tide. — N.Z. Herald, Oct. 9. The Pbedicted High Tide.— -Mr. Ellery, the Government astronomer, supplies the following interesting particulars respecting the prophecy of Lieut. Saxby, as to the unusually high tides to be expected on the sth October next : — " Some few weeks ago a paragraph appeared in most of the daily journals, to the effect that Mr. Saxby had foretold the occurrence of unnsually high tides about the 4th and sth of October next. As these critical days approach, this prophecy seems, avalanche like, to gather to it more alarming signifiance, until the high tide becomes a tidal wave, something on the scale of the great wave that did so much damage in the Pacific on the occasion of the late Peruvian earthquakes. About midnight on October 5, Melbourne time, the moon will be in conjunction, or in other words, it will be new moon; at that time the moon will also be on the equator, and in perigee or nearest to the earth, about six hours previously. Spring or high tides always occur at full and change, .and they are likely to be higher when the moon is at perigee than when she is at apogee, and in all probability the ti/3fisun-11l Jba_lii(^ifir-iiiJH^_^Qn^S_Ba}Z-i'^ n *> usual by a few inches on the date named, if the wind does not happen to be N.N.E. or E., in which case they might be even lower than customary. In the Bristol Channel, and other places, where the rise and fall is 50ft. or 60ft. instead of about 30in. as it is here, the difference may be, as it often is on suoh occasions, a matter of serious moment. Meteorological conditions have a much greater influence on the tides in our harbour than astronomical ones, and we may get the highest tides at apogee, if strong S. W. and southerly winds prevail. It is therefore possible that heavy south-westerly gales, with continuous rain, might co-operate, and add a greater significance to the few extra inches of tide, as it did on the 11th to 13th December, 1863, bringing ebout unusually high tides and floods ; Dut whether such a state will obtain at the time of the October new moon can no more be foretold than the date of the millennium. But so far as astronomical predictions are concerned there is no reason whatever to anticipate dangerous or even unusually high tides on the Sth October. The moon has been frequently in closer perigee at full and change, without making any sensible difference in our tides. On the 26th February last, she was nearer to the earth at full than she will be this time at new moon, and on March 26, 1865, her position at new moon gave her far more influence than it v will do in October next, and nothing occurred on either of these occasions." "Doyou re-cover umberrills (umbrellas) here P" asked an old lady of an umbrella mender. . "Yes, urn." "Then I'd like to have you reoover the one I lost last Sunday/

Tide. Barometer. Winds. ft. in. Oct. 3, a.m. 7 3 3020 southerly p.m. 7 6 3018 southerly 4, a.m. 8 4 3020 overcast p.m. 9 0 3022 variable, It. 5, a.m. 10 3 30*20 westerly, It; p.m. 10 9 3017 westerly, It. 6, a.m. 11 0 3018 variable, It. p.m. 11 6 80.20 variable, It. 7, a.m. 12, 0 30,34 fresh, easterly