LETTERS TO THE EDITOR.

Hawke's Bay Herald, Volume 13, Issue 1086, 24 September 1869, Page 3

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR.

The Editor does not hold himself responsible for opinions expressed by correspondents.

LIEUT. SAXBY'S PREDICTION. Hubert. My Lord, they say, five moons were seen to-night. King John. }?ive moons P Hubert. Old men and beldams, in the streets, Do prophesy upon it dangerously. —I saw a smith stand with his hammer, thus, The whilst his iron did on his anvil cool, With open mouth, swallowing a tailor's news. Shakspeaeb— King John. Sir, — Allow me to say a few words on the " predicted tidal wave," which, some say, is to play the very "Dragon of Wantley" with us, and to swallow up poor Napier! I should have earlier essayed a few words to some of your more credulous readers, witha viewto allaying their foolish fears, as I have had not a few enquiries made, both personally and by letter, concerning this said sea invasion ; provided that .any appeal to reason can do so much in a time of uneasy excitement and apprehension ; only you, in your article of the 17th, said, "We have taken steps to get a scientific opinion on the matter, which, when received, we shall at once place before our readers." First, then, I would call their serious attention to this fact, that we have in England a noble and united band of hardworking public men of first rate scientific attainments, whose whole life has been more or less spent in the study of astronomy and meteorology; now these say nothing whatever about* any such/alarming occurrences, not even in the British Nautical Almanac for 1869, wherein every little deviation or. apparent aberration of nature from her old established rules and laws is accurately noted. Secondly, the same may be said of the numerous skilled astronomers of all other civilized kingdoms, particularly of those of Germany, France, t"he United States, &c, by none of whom either officially or independently has anything of the kind been published. Now such being the case, are we in the face of all,this,,to adopt the single utterances of such men as Saxby or " zJadkiel," or any others of the cunning followers of " Francis Moore, physician ?" The Chinese have a proverb, that "no lie is so bad as that which has truth in it," (which is a pretty good exponent of the depth of experience of that ancient people,) and so in this case of the " tidal wave," (bosh !) there is just this amount of truth in it, — that very likely at that date, from the situation of the planetary bodies, the sun the moon and the earth, there may be a somewhat higher tide than usual ; but certainly no higher than some of us old settlers have already more than once seen at Port Ahuriri. Indeed, if any credit is to be given to any portion of Saxby's statements, past, present, or future, (which, I confess, I am not inclined to do,) then, I would call attention to that portion in which he says — " this year the two hemispheres will be affected alike ;" if so, then, by his own shewing, the equilibrium will be preserved. You state in the article referred to, that " Saxby had alluded to the accuracy of a former prediction ;" (oh !) and you speak, undesignedly no doubt, as if you endorsed it. Any " accurate prediction," however, on his part, according to the usual and common meaning of the words, I deny. It was just such a prediction as any one might make in saying the sun will rise at 6 o'clock on Saturday morning next, — or, the westerly winds will blow strongly several times during the month of October, — or, that thrice during tho mouth of November the shopkeepers in Shakespeare road will have to close their doors on account of the great dust, and that * * * and * * * will be then seen wearing blue specs. It is a wonderfully easy matter to " predict " after this fashion : — I could make 26 such every year, that high tides would arise on my 26 predicted periods and do great damage in some parts of the world ; and sure enough such would aftewards be found to have taken place somewhere ! It would seem as if we still needed not a little of reasonable enlightenment on even natural matters. A few dozen of cheap edition copies of Lecky's noble work on "The Eise and Influence of Eationalism," circulated among us, might, prove a step in the right direction towards removing many such preposterous and credulous beliefs. Some may remark, " Ah ! it is all very well for you, W. C, there on the hill at Scinde Island to talk like this." Well : I believe I should talk and act the same if I still lived at my old residence at Waitangi, low and close to the sea ; and even now I am quite willing (if my doing so would tend to make any of Saxby's too credulous followers more easy,) to spend the said fated day and night locked-in in any decent room on the lowest flat about Napier. I quite agree with you when you say, "We should not be surprised if the sth October passed without any unusual occurrence." I would, however, that you had not given publication to that foolish anonymous letter from Wellington. Surely the writer, if in earnest, which I doubt, must forget that such a general high tide as would " wholly sweep away" our western town, would also shew little mercy on the shops and stores on Wellington beach! But he, too, travels far to vent his cheap pity. Writing of Wellington reminds me of another false prophet, named Sohmidt, a character not wholly to the old settlers here: I knew him a little too well. In January, 1855, he went overland hence to Wellington ; he was there at the time of the severe earthquake, which happened on the 23rd of that month. Very shortly afterwards he gave a kind of lecture on volcanos and earthquakes, and " predicted" that a far severer shock would take place in the night of a day which he named ; consequently, it being a time of great fear and excitement, and small shocks being also common, many left their homes and passed the dreaded night on the hills in the open air. But that night passed off quietly, and the prophet Schmidt quickly skedaddled to the Middle Island. For my own part I would that all such vagabond and vainglorious false prophets or alarmists, who Eve by their wits, whether theological or natural, as Schmidt, Saxby, Cumming, or Baxter, were just fairly though rudely dealt with, as Peter of Pomfret is said to have been by King John,—laid hold of and put into ward until the predicted time had passed, and then, if correct, rewarded ; if not, immediately strung up a'la-lanterne. Such fellows, in my estimation, are far worse than " Hauhaus." In conclusion, I will just give an extract and received this evening by the inland mail; he says, (after mentioning the deaths which had recently occurred among his people,) — " Here is yet another new talk among us, it is currently reported and by some believed, that the ocean is soon to come in rolling over the land even over the Euahine mountains, and then the moon and the stars are also to fall!" Credulous, easy men of Napier, don't laugh at the. Maori. —l am, &c, William Colenso. Napier, Sept, 22, 1869.