The Gisborne Herald. WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED "THE TIMES" GISBORNE, WEDNESDAY, MAR. 24, 1943. THE POST-WAR WORLD

Gisborne Herald, Volume LXX, Issue 21051, 24 March 1943, Page 2

The Gisborne Herald. WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED "THE TIMES" GISBORNE, WEDNESDAY, MAR. 24, 1943. THE POST-WAR WORLD

It was commented yesterday that certain facts in Mr, Churchill’s postwar plan would inevitably make their impact felt on the economy of New Zealand. It is desirable that some, at least, of these points should be studied in closer detail. Primarily, it will have been observed, or" should have been, that the basis of Mr. Churchill’s scheme for rehabilitation and reconstruction was the development and expansion of trade and industry through private enterprise and individual initiative. In New Zealand, to the limited extent that plans have been formulated; they hinge almost entirely on the provision of work by the State —an increase in the bureaucracy which Mr. Churchill condemns --and a consequent increase in the burden imposed on existing wealih rather than the creation of more wealth. This is a fundamental defect which must be remedied if the Dominion’s future is to be made economically secure. Any plans which art made by New Zealand must, moreover, be in cohsonnace with the broader plans formulated by the United Nations and, in particular, by Great Britain, with whom the interests of the Dominion are indissolubly linked. The first step to be taken by New Zealand, therefore, is to study to what extent its policy, past, present and contemplated, is inconsistent with that of the Mother Country. There were two points made by Mr. Churchill which have a direct bearingon the economy of New Zealand. The first was that Britain’s agricultural industry,'Which had been so greatly developed during the war, must be maintained. Now Zealand's past and; present prosperity has been chiefly due to its ability to dispose of unlimited quantities of primary produce on the British market. Will this market still be available to the same extent and on the same conditions in the post-war Britain envisaged by Mr. Churchill? If not, how will the Dominion dispose of the primary production which must, for many years to come, remain the backbone of its industrial life? It is possible that there will not be a substantial diminution in the volume of exports which can be absorbed by Britain, but even if this position does exist New Zealand will have to compete with the increased British production and this will tend to reduce the return to the grower. There will, of course, be ah increased demand for foodstuffs from the Continent, but again the question arises as to whether an impoverished Europe will be in a position to pay the prices that are hecessiiry if blew Zealand’s artificial standards are to be maintained. A prudent one suggests that even if the Dominion’s exports are maintained its export income will be considerably reduced. The second point made by Mr. Churchill was in regard to the postwar re-establishment of •Britain’? c-xport trade. Britain, he said, must strive to get Her ihir share of, the augmented world trade and in this connection negotiations had already been opened with the Dominions and the other allies. Mr. Churchill’? reference to how much Britain owed to the free trade policy of the .Victorian era indicated the channels in which his thoughts are running. Current American thought is along the same lines and the same principle is implicit in the Atlantic Charter. These things surely point to the necessity for New Zealand considering the position of her secondary industries in a world in which trade ■'•barriers and currency manipulation have been greatly reduced. How many of New Zealand’s secondary industries could survive under the present artificial conditions if they had to compete with the more-or-less unrestricted competition of highly-industrialised oversea?, countries? This, too, is a question to which early consideration must btaddressed, for if, in addition to a lessened market or lessened returns for primary produce, ’the ’ secondary industries are to be threatened the outlook for the Dominion will be grave. So far, there is little evidence that these prospective problems have even been considered.

Bound up with the question ol overseas trade is that of population, another point With which Mr. Churchill. dealt. I-Tis “soVnb’fe anxieties”, regarding the diminishing population of Britain apply with at least equal force '.to New Zealand and in this country, too. it will not be many yearn before a reduced active population will be required to support a large? number in the older-age groups. To. remedy this Britain must rely on am increase in the birth-rate but New: Zealand could largely overcome the position by a policy of immigration. This is the obvious course, yet only yesterday the Minister of Defence was reported to have told a conference in Cairo that tire Government had not considered the question of immigrationl Instead, he seemed to pin his hopes ih war‘•brides'- from overseas—of which the number must 'be severely limited—and quite overlooked the -Met that New Zealand'might lose as much population by the same process as it could hope to gain. In any case this is a negative approach to the question which might be the niqst vital the Dominion has to face. With several timer, its present population New Zealand would have gone'a considerable distance towards solving the problems of disposing of its primary produce and making its secondary industries economic. With a stationary population and the new international outlook that is to be expected after the war its prospects would be gloomy indeed. .