The Gisborne Herald. WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED “THE TIMES” GISBORNE, WEDNESDAY, AUG, 20, 1941. FAR EAST UNCERTAINTY

Gisborne Herald, Volume LXVIII, Issue 20639, 20 August 1941, Page 4

The Gisborne Herald. WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED “THE TIMES” GISBORNE, WEDNESDAY, AUG, 20, 1941. FAR EAST UNCERTAINTY

It is a strange thing that while Japan continues to complain of encirclement she apparently takes every possible step to strain her relations with the nations she accuses of ulterior motives. She has continued her advance towards the south, thus threatening British and American interests, she refuses to allow American nationals to leave Japan, and now she is accusing Russia of anti-Axis activities. This policy is open to one of two explanations. It may be that Japan aims at concealing her real intentions by making feints in several different directions or, alternatively, her plan may be to keep irons in several fires in order to be able to take advantage of any opportunity which might occur. At the moment, particular attention is directed towards Vladivostock and it is significant that the Japanese press has launched a new campaign against Russia. The serious reverses suffered by the Russians at the hands of the Germans in the past few days may suggest 1o Japan that there is an opening for a successful venture in that direction. She is thus preparing an excuse for action should the opportunity offer. It is a matter for speculation, however, whether Japan could launch an attack on Russia without becoming embroiled in operations over a much wider sphere.

There are some indications that Japan is less willing to challenge Britain and the United States by persevering further with her southward drive, but it would be a mistake to place too much reliance on this view. It is certain, however, that the measures already taken by the United States and Great Britain have gone a good deal further than Japan ever expected, and it may be taken for granted that Japan is extremely anxious to obtain some relaxation of them. The refusal to permit of the departure of American nationals may, therefore, be nothing more than an attempt to bargain and it is probably considered, also, that a Japanese move to the north would be less unpopular with Britain and America. Japan is rightly perturbed at the proposed increase in collaboration between Russia, Britain and America and at the prospect of a mutual defence pact between them. She has further ground for concern and resentment in the fact that while the United States has placed an embargo on petrol for Japan she is shipping large quantities to Russia. This comes within the category of what Japan terms anti-Axis activities, but even Japan can hardly overlook the fact that whatever steps have been taken have been prompted by the aggression of the Axis Powers against other nations.

It is now suggested that relations between Japan and the United States are near breaking point and subject to exceedingly acute strain. America, however, is not alone in this position, for her action has been paralleled at every point by Britain and the Dutch East Indies. The position of Russia still remains somewhat uncertain, but she has everything to gain and nothing to lose by joining a defensive alliance designed to counter any aggressive move by Japan. Were this to eventuate it would mean that Japan would be threatened from north, south, east and west —exactly as she claims that she is being encircled —and the vulnerable position in which she would be placed offers the best hope that she will not make any precipitate move. It is questionable whether Japan, with her already severely-strained army, can maintain adequate land forces in Manchuria and Indo-China and continue her operations against the Chinese. Her navy is admittedly powerful, but it is extremely doubtful whether it could be pitted successfully against the combined forces of Britain, the United States, Russia and the Dutch East Indies. The obvious tactics for Japan to adopt, in these circumstances, is to try and drive a wedge between her possible opponents, and this should not be an easy task.

One of the weaknesses of the situation from the Allied side is the extent to which the hands of the United States Government are tied by its constitution and this may be exploited by Japan, but the possibility of complications are apparent. America is pledged to assist those nations which are fighting Hitlerism and this would mean that if Japan entered the war America would be assisting her enemies, How long she could do this without becoming •embroiled herself is a point for speculation. It is uncertain, too, whether if Japan attacked Russia, Britain would declare war on Japan. That would depend upon the extent to which Russia was prepared fully to collaborate with Britain, a point on which there appears to be some doubt. The whole situation is about as completely confused as is possible, but it must not be assumed that this is an advantage to Japan. On the contrary, if Japan contemplates going to war in any direction she must count on being attacked from all sides. She would be challenging a powerful combination of Powers but she could not count on the slightest degree of assistance herself, since her Axis partners are remote and isolated. The whole situation in the Far East is full of possibilities, and no one at this stage dare predict what will occur.