POPULATION TRENDS WILL AFFECT FUTURE BUSINESS

Greymouth Evening Star, 22 September 1949, Page 6

POPULATION TRENDS WILL AFFECT FUTURE BUSINESS

Population trends especially concern members of the business community in two definite ways they show the kind of people who will be available for employment, and they’ indicate the type of demand that businessmen will receive for goods they make, ’handle, or sell. In New Zealand, as inBritain, the ageing population will bring a change in the type of- demand. The subject of population in relation to business is dealt with in an article in the Retailei, a magazine published by the New ; Zealand Retailers’ Federation. The’ latest figures on the general movement of New Zealand s population appear in the statistical report for 1947-48. These show that for the yqar ended March 31, 1948, the Dominion’s population increased by 2.29 per cent., states the Retailer. More important than this, perhaps, the net reproduction index for 1947 reached a new high figure. This index was down- to 1.077 in 1943, and has steadily increased since then to 1.567 in 1947. Statisticians.«teß us that!a net reproduction index greater than 1.00 iis required to- ensure a stationary : population, though this figure may be sufficient in favourable circumstances,’ . ! . Importance Of index It is important to take this, figure into account whenever considering the future of dur population. It is not always appreciated that the existence of a fairly substantial excess of births over deaths may, while proving that the population is increasing at the time, yet mask—because of the time lag—a state in which the population is failing to reproduce itself. The net reproduction index avoids this disability. These facts may provide consolation for those who have been disturbed by certain figures in the 1945 census returns. These show’, among other things, that the proportion, of females of reproductive age—ls-44 years—to the total female population was at its highest in 1906. The figure was then 50.94 per cent. This; ratio i declined steadily until in 1945 it was ’ only 45.19 per cent. There was also ' a fairly steady decline from 1896 onward in the number of children aged i 14 and under who would subsequent- | ly join the reproductive groups, i The great importance which these figures have for the retail trade, as a whole lies, of course, both in the change in the type of demand and in the numbers of nersons who will be .available for employment. . Changing Demand We will see, for instance, in relation to the change in type of demand that the tendency appears to be toj wards a decline in demand for the type of goods in which mothers as a class are especially interested. So far as this demand is concerned with the needs of children, however, it will no doubt be offset to some extent by encouragement given to the rearing of large families. If conditions remain stable and such social services as family benefits are maintained and possibly extended, be a tendency towards larger families. The figures showing the proportion of females of various ages will have given some idea of the general tendency towards an ageing population. This is confirmed by figures for the population as a whole. For instance, the average age of individuals—both sexes—rose from 25.12 in 1896 to nearly 33 in 1945. It is worth noting also that since the 1936 census the average age of females as been greater than that of males. The increased birth rate between 1936 and 1945 is shown in higher figures for the lower age'groups. Children under five years increased in numbers from 116,738 in 1935 to .162,155 in 1945. There was also an increase of nearly 4000 in the 5 and under 10 group. Retailers may be recruiting staff from this group in a year or two. The 10 and under 15 group fell from 135,316 to 118,751. There was a fall also of several thousands in the 15 and under 20 group. The 20 and under 30 group slumped from 258,528 to 229,288. Beyond that the figures rise. Actually, between 1921 and 1945 the numbers aged 50 to 59 increased by 75 per cent., the 60-69 group by 152 percent., the 70-90 group by 141 per cent, and those 80 and over by 89 per cent. About 145,000 people would have to be transferred from the 50 and over group to the under 50 group to bring the 1945 population back to the proportionate age distribution of 1921. , British Comment

The British Association of Retail Chambers of trade, in its comments on the report of the Royal Commission on Population, says the effect of population trends which have been predicted for Britain would be that there would be a higher proportion of dependents, the very young and the very old, to be supported bv the body of producers whose numbers would stay constant and whose average age is increasing. “This may mean,” the review adds, “that the community will lose qualities of vigour, enterprise and initiative which are characteristics of youth unless it makes up in skill and wisdom what it loses in strength.” This observation may have some bearing on the position in New Zealand. The 1945 census figures’’showed that the more vigorous group, aged 20 and under 40, contained in urban areas 294 persons pere 1000 of population. The under 20 group contained 319 per 1000 in urban and 375 per 1000 in rural areas. Those aged 40 and over, comprised 387 per. 1000 in urban and 334 per 1000 in rural areas. The figures show that the number of children per 1000 under 10 is far greater in rural than in urban areas.

Demand For Experience The comment of the British Retail Chambers on the problem of recruits to industry is also relevant. “Promising young recruits to trade and industry,” they say, /‘will not only demand the best staff-training facilities, but may easily get restive and frustrated at the promotion block above them if the best use is not made of their abilities. On the other hand, the customers will steadily get older as well as the staff, and there well may come an increased demand for the assistant of mature years and experience rather than for the young and smart.” Here, as in Britain, the ageing population will.bring a change in the type of demand, and not merely, of course, from the special group of women to whorh ‘ reference has already been made. There must already, for instance, be a greater demand for clothes of style and size to suit , elderly people. Any mass demand of this sort, as British retailers comment, is probably at the cheaper end. Apart from those with property, retired persons tend to be in a better relative position than in the past. Retailers may have found as a result that the quality of goods bought for children and young persons has improved. If the trend towards an older population continues here as it is expected to do in England, tastes arid habits also may change. This would be reflected in types of sport and entertainment, in furnishings, in a demand for quieter and cheaper comforts, and probably in a movement towards more sober design.