GERMAN BIRTHRATE

Greymouth Evening Star, 28 October 1931, Page 10

GERMAN BIRTHRATE

BELOW THAT OF FRANCE.

The marked decrease in the 1930 German birth rate, which carried it for the first time below that of France, is a source of great concern to economists, who foresee the development of many serious problems during tne next generation. There has been a steady drop in the birth rate since pre-war years. In 1923 the figures were 27.5 births per thousand as against 1J.9 in 1929 and 17-5 m 1930. France’s figures are only slightly less than they were before the war, the decrease being from 19.0 per thousand in 1913 to 18.1 last year The 1913 figures include Alsace and Lorraine, without which the birth rate was only 18.8 per thousand. These two nations are not the only ones affected in this way. Italy, which in former years was kept from overpopulation only by emigration, has experienced a drop from 4.3 births per marriage in 1910 to 3-2 in 1930. England has the lowest rate of any European country, with 16.3 per thousand but due to her isolated position does not need to worry as much as do the more densely populated countries on the Continent. The number of births per marriage in Germany was only 1-94, far below the figure usually taken as necessary for the upkeep of a nation’s normal growth, three births per marriage being ordinarily considered the figure. Urban and industrial districts are naturally much lower than rural ones. It seenis very likely that the decrease will go on without check, as the more remote districts of the Reich, always resistant to change, are at present just beginning to undergo modern development, during which process their birth rate will tend to decline towards that of more advanced sections.

In the larger cities of Germany, as in the' rest of Europe, the working classes have a lower coefficient of birth than the leisured classes of a half generation ago, and the decrease in the birth rate has been much more pronounced in the lower strata than in the upper- In the opinion of economists, the next 10 years will bring to pass what is as yet only a latent truth, that the birth rate will no longer be enough to maintain the normal, healthy increase of population. The lines of the birth and death rates are approaching nearer and nearer, and w'hen the meeting point is reached, a decline in population will inevitably set in. It is an international phenomenon from which even Russia is likely not to be excluded, although accurate figures for that country are not available. It will eventually result in a complete change of the economic condition, due to lack of capital and of labour.