IS REFORM WANING?

Evening Star, Issue 18138, 30 November 1922, Page 3

IS REFORM WANING?

AUCKLAND PROSPECTS NOT ROSY. SOME SURPRISES PREDICT LTD. IMPRESSIONS OF “OUR SPECIAL.” AUCKLAND, November cO. Tho election -prospects in the Auckland province present some interesting possibilities, both in the urban 'and rural electorates. Tho campaign opened with a confident Reform Party, but in spite of one or two factors, -usably tho shipping strike, calculated to operate to the advantage of the Government, that confidence has been materially shaken in the past few weeks. In several of the suburban electorates tho official 'Reformers arc either 'haunted by rival supporters of the Government or by tho unpleasant pastime of pitch and toss in personalities. From the country districts come continuous reports of hostile motions to tho Government passed by the small -farmers, who in the past put Reform into office and for years made c-f Air Massey a political deity. Alas for Reform, tho times are surely changing, -and in the Auckland province' at all events several surprises are discussed with .lively anticipation, and in which tho turnover vote is spoken of a.s an important factor. In and about tho city itself the chances of Messrs Parry and Glover are -reckoned a'bout even for Central. Labor has bright hopes of capturing Auckland East from Mr Clutha Mackenzie with Air Lee, and Mr Savage will probably bo returned at tho top of a close poll for Auckland West. Reform is -putting up a good fight with Mr Holdsworth in Grey Lynn, which has always been Radical, bat is generally held to -have been weakly represented by Mr Bartram. Waitemata is a pretty safe -thing for Air Kerries, the silting Reformer. In 1919 Mr I. W. Dickson went back to the House for Parnell with the biggest majority in New Zealand; but what with a willing little Reform colt in Mr &. AI. Wren and Mr W. Norton, the Liberal candidate, going hard for the sporting chance in tho split vote, Air Itiykson’s margin looks like a narrow one this time.

Ricking the winner for Roskill is not easy, but opinion id growing that it will nob be Mr V. IT. Potter, the late representative. Miss Melville's prospects are becoming more -favored daily, with .Mr Hall -Skelton, who is something of a Roderick Random on tho platform, but a ding-dong hustler, as a not improbable fast finisher.

In Eden tho Alinisler of Education has been experiencing “ the slings and arrows” of -political fortune throughout a strenuous campaign of charge and counter-charge. His popularity is not bis strong suit, -and on the present face of things a straight-out fight between him and the Liberal candidate would probably result in a Ministerial vacancy after the elections. Labor is, (however, likely to poll enough votes to give him back bis seat.

In Manuk-au also the Reform man -is on the wane, and Sir F. W. Lang will probably squeeze iido his last Parliament, popular (though ho is personally. From tho far north the report comes that Air Allen Bell is likely to turn over the Bay of Islands seat lor Liberalism, and even the Hon. d. G. Coates, the bright particular spot in the Reform Cabinet, is lighting for his political life against the Liberal onslaught. Marsden, after many faithful years of adherence to Alasscyism, promises to become a Liberal electorate at the hands of Mr A. J. Murdoch.

Looking south, Franklin can be passed over, though Mr Massey's two-to-ono majority of the last election Is not likely to 'bo repeated; but in Raglan “Dick” Bollard is thinking -anxiously, -and in the new electorate of Waikato tho rm-sl-favored chances are those of the Liberal candidate. Air F. Lye.

Air Young will probably annex Hatuilion, his old love, under a new name, -and Air T. IV. Rhodes is regarded as a certainty for Thames.

Alessrs Poland and Allen are likely to run a close race in Qliine-ninri, with the chances in favor of tho Liberal war horse.

Taura-nga is looked upon as a near thing for Fir Wm. Homes, though a turnover against the veteran Reform Alinister would not ho a big surprise.

Mr l iockly is likely l£ retain Tiotorna on a closn poll. (ind Mr .ti'iinings' is thought quite sate alt. Waitomo. His neighbor, .Hobby Smith, promises to RufTo.r from an excess o ! f liberal ski.rtm in AVaimarino, .however, which appears to be a probable loss to the Opposition.