ON WHICH SIDE?

Evening Star, Issue 15916, 23 September 1915, Page 6

ON WHICH SIDE?

BULGARIA MOBILISES. UNKNOWN QUANTITIES. STRATEGICAL POSSIBILITIES. RUSSIANS GETTING CLEAR. [By Cnixicus.] Bulgaria has ordered a general mobilisation, with the object of maintaining an ‘ armed neutrality. - ’ A curious excuse this for mobilising at the present moment, when neither side is in a position to threaten that neutrality. This is not the first time we have had this report, but this time it has the look of. the real thing. AH Bulgarian officers and reserves have been called home from Germany, Austria, France, and other countries, and following closely, as it does, on the announcement that the Dedeagatch railway has been taken over by Bulgaria, there seems good reason to accept the report as true. And, if true, it will probably mean that Bulgaria intends something more itlian mere armed neutrality. She probably intends to intervene, but upon which side? Wo have to face possibilities, and there is no gainsaying the fact that the intervention of Bulgaria against us would be extremely awkward for the Allies, and would much prolong the war. Moreover, such a policy on 'lulgaria’s part would be at least intelligible, ’the acceptance as a sufficient reward for all her hopes of the Dedeagatch railway and the territory west of the Maritza is beyond comprehension. But with, a king whoso sympathies are with our enemies it is quite understandable that sho should accept what she can get from Turkey and hope to be able to conquer Macedonia from Serbia. UNKNOWN QUANTITIES.

The difficulty of gauging the exact effect of Bulgaria declaring- against us lies in the fact that there are so many unknown quantities in the problem. AH' would depend on tho action of Greece and Rumania, and that cannot bo predicted. M. Venezelos has had an interview with King Constantino, in which they are said to have discussed the attitude of Greece in view of the threatened Austro-German invasion of Serbia.. Not only that, : they ah» discussed _ tho possibility of Bulgaria invading Serbia Ministerial journals declare that there is absolutely no divergence of opinion between the King and the Premier. Tins is remarkable, if time; but is it true 5 ’ When Constantine’s brother poorge was High Commissioner in Crete he developed autocratic tendencies which ill-suited Venezelos, then the chief patriot and power in the island. So he took to tho hills, organised a. revolution, and sent Prince George home again. Constantine has never forgiven the injury to his family pride. Moreover, his Queen is a sister of the Kaiser, and it. is said that Constantine is strictly disciplined—a lion on the battlefield, but a meek and docile spouse at homo. His sympathies are unquestionably pro-German, and he took the opportunity a r , Berlin to attribute the victory ul in the second Balkan. War to the lessons obtained from Germany; , whereas it was the French, called in try 1 enezolos, who had organised the Greek army. But a considerable number of its chiefs had received their training in Germany the cause of a pro-German attitude on their part which is one of the greatest stumbling-blocks of Yenezelcs. Rumania also is doubtful. True, we have been told by 1 The Times's ’ correspondent at Bucharest, that the Germanic Powers are aware of Rumania’s determination to intervene if .Serbia, is attacked; but this does not commit Rumania, and her position would be a very difficult one if Bulgaria should invade Serbia. She would be between two fires. Her dynasty is Hohenaollern, and there is a considerable pro-German party in the country. Moreover, she dreams of one da.v regainrng Bessarabia, anciently a part of Rumania, and with a population one-half of which is Rumanian. Nevertheless, her position would be so dangerous in the event of Bulgaria joining the AustroGermans that it is not improbable that she would strike in on our side. HIT FIRST. Private messages from Berlin declare that a new offensive against Serbia is being carried out. As the essence of successful war is secrecy and surprises, these loudlyadvertised “private advices” provide the best evidence that no such attack is at present contemplated. Should Bulgaria attack Serbia, however, an Austro-Ger-nian army would certainly co-operate, in order to divide the Serbian forces. If Rumania and Greece decided to intervene in aid of Serbia, it should be their policy to strain every nerv-j to crush. Bulgaria by a combined attack before the Central Powers could effectively intervene. It would bo necessary for both Rumania and Serbia to place a part of their armies on the Austrian frontier to hold back the enemy, while General Tvanoff, commanding the Russian armies in the south, struck with, all his force in order to occupy tho Austro-Oermans. Then the rest of the Rumanian and Serbian armies and the Greek army should fall upon the Bulgarians in a combined, convergent attack from three sides, and endeavor to overwhelm them before the Austro-Germans could com© up. Tho Bulgarians would obtain a, certain amount of help from the Turks, but probably nob a great deal, as tho Turks are not well supplied with ammunition. Here the Allies would have the advantage, as both Bulgaria and Turkey would be completely cut off from outside supplies, and, if hard pressed, might run short.

Much would depend in. such a struggle on the trunk Hue of railway running from Salonika up through Serbia to Belgrade. If the Serbians and Greets have been alive to their opportunities, that line should have been double or treble-tracked and plenty of rolling-stock provided. Salonika is a fine port, and with good communications there is no reason why a large Italian army should not he landed there. The Sorb inn army has been reorganised, equipped, and provided with a powerful artillery, so if Rumania, and Greece do not hesitate to act Bulgaria’s hostility need not. prove fatal. ILL-CO-ORDINATED' RETREAT.

Colonel Repington criticises recent Russian strategy with some justice. Ha points out that since the Grand Duke left the front his wise policy of a skilfully coordinated retreat all along tho line has not been effectively followed. Tho Russian army has not maintained, that plan© front which was tho despair of German strategists. The Russians have held on too long at particular points instead of promptly abandoning them when abandonment became necessary in order to co-ordinate the retreat with that of the rest of the line. The long delay at Skidel, to the east of Grodno, has been commented upon in these notes, and it resulted in the formation of a pronounced salient to tho disadvantage of tbe Russians. Colonel Repington now declares that they are partly enveloped at Czuezzin, to the east of Skidel,

Moreover, they hung on too long nt Vilna, a place winch ceased to be of any great importance when the Germans had freiaed the junction at Landvarovo, to the west, with the result that Hindonburg saw his opportunity, and struck a blow to envelop them. - Colonel Repington asserts that the German cavalry advance from the Sventa, though through a difficult lake and marsh region, where a few divisions should have been able to hold up several times their number, does not seem to have met with any formidable resistance. In the absence of details of the fighting, it is difficult either to accept or reject this view; but it is fair to point out that there have been persistent reports from Petrograd of great cavalry battles. The presence pi a of. Spa forces

on the river Dvina (or Duna) is asserted frr Colonel Itepington— a very singular place for them to have reached. Possibly it, is a cable error. GETTING CLEAR.

Fortunately the Russians retreating from Vilna have succeeded, if the later reports are trustworthy, in manoeuvring out of their dangerous position with the aid of stiff rearguard actions. The Germans fought bard to cut them off by desperate attempts to cross the Vilia fords at Molodetchno, but were driven back by the Russians, who escaped through the gap thus broadened. Fierce fighting for the fords across the Vilia is still proceeding. That river, it may be explained, runs from east to west, almost parallel with the Russian line of retreat, and there are immense bodies of German cavalry, said to amount to 50,000,. to the north of it . If those can break through they may hope to cut off the Russians, or, if the retreat has progressed too far. to harass their rear and make large captures. Part cf the Russian forces are following the line from Vilna to Minsk, while those to the north are falling hack upon Lida, and thence along the branch line which connects that place with the Vilna-Minsk railway. General Russky has slowed up the German advance on the Dvina-, and tho fighting there has assumed the character of siego warfare for the present, consisting of a senes of costly assaults upon trenches.

General Von Eichorn’s artillery and infantry are reported to have halted at Vilna, and the German infantry are alleged to present a pitiable spectacle—bearded, round-shouldered, and hardly able to move under their equipment. But this sort of thing must he received with caution. Germany has half a million youths reaching military age every year, and it is doubtful if‘she has, as yet, any difficulty in finding able-bodied recruits. Autumn is in full' blast in the Baltic Provinces, the country is being swept hy cold, raw winds, and an early winter is expected. CENTRE AND SOUTH. Prince Leopold of Bavaria has forced the passage of tho Molezady, which is a tributary' of the River Niomen, running from south to north, between Slonim and Lida. Ho has cut the Vilna-Rovno lateral railway. No further progress by Von Mackenson is reported. In jbhe south the Russians have captured a forest south-eastward of Lutsk. They have also dislodged the enemy from the small town of Ivanie, which stands on tho eastern shore of a small lake immediately to the north of Duhno. which is formed by a broadening out of the Ikwa River, a tributary of the Styr. In addition, they have captured some villages to the west nf Krenenetz, which stands on a- lino of hills at the head of a branch line .of railway from Dubno, and is 25 miles due south of that place. Evidently the Russians are holding their own in the south, and are able to take tho offensive. Tho complete absence of claims from the enemy to have made progress in that quarter is sufficient indication of the state of affairs. This ability of the Russians to take the offensive in' the south will become, of supreme importance if Bulgaria’s dubious attitude should develop into open hostility. It will be necessary for the Russians in the south to occupy the Austro-Germans in order to give Rumania a free hand to deal with Bulgaria.