THE SOUTHERN FLANK

Evening Star, Issue 15907, 13 September 1915, Page 6

THE SOUTHERN FLANK

RUSSIA'S SHREWD BLOW. A DIPLOMATIC HINT. ■ FEROCIOUS HARES. SKIMMED MILK. [By Criticus.] We may now, without undue optimism, entertain the hopo that our Russian Allies will succeed in holding up the Austro-Ger-man offensive before Hie enemy reach Petrograd and Moscow. It is evident that the strenuous efforts of the Allies in the productions of guns and munitions are beginning to make themselves felt. We are not yet out of the wood. The enemy may succeed m pushing much further into ' Russia before they are finally stopped. ! But it is now becoming clear that the I margin of superior strength over the Russians which they now enjoy is so small that we may reasonably hoj>© that their advance will be comparatively slow as a whole, and that the combined eifoTts of the- Allies arid the world at large will convert that margin of superiority into a margin of inferiority before they succeed in bringing off. their anticipated coup. _ In to-day's news honors are with the Russians. In the north liindenbiirg's advance is fairly stopped, but in the centre both Prince Leopold of Bavaria and Von Mackensen claim to be making progress. The former is stated to have gained some successes on the Zelwianka, a river running from south to north into the Niemetf, about 12_ miles to the east of Volkowysk, forcing the passage at several points." A struggle for the railway station at Kossow, on the line from Brest-Litovsk to Minsk, is being carried on by Von Mackensen's forces, and that general is also advancing along both sides of the railway towards Pinsk. But the latest Russian communique claims that the enemv were hurled back both at Skidel, 20 miles east of Grodno, and at Zelva, 12 miles east of Volkowysk. South of the Pripet the Austrians claim to have captured the town of Deuagno, on the Goryn river, about 22 miles to the north-west of Rovno. So they are working round to the north of that place. On the extreme southern flank the honors of the day are with the Russians. Some 5,000 more prisoners have been captured in the Trembowla and Tchortkoff sectors. Trembowla is to the south of Tarnopol, and Tchortkoff Iks to the south of Trembowla. True, the Germans claim that all Russian attacks in the Tarnopol region were " crushed," but, unfortunately for this grandiloquent claim, an Austrian communique admits that "we withdrew our Sereth front to heights east of the Strypa before superior forces." So 'the enemy in this district are not merely held up, but are driven back. The latest Russian communique an- - nounces that the Austro-German offensive has been stopped at Roshany, about 22 miles south-east of Volkowysk, and in the Rovno district-. In the Tarnopol region the enemy's obstinate resistance has been broken and 2,900 prisoners captured. Quick-firers, mounted on motor cars, rendered valuable aid during tho pursuit. Further north the enemy were expelled from Tioust, and SOO prisoners captured. If this continues the enemy will be compelled to weaken, their centre in order to strengthen their right flank. MUTUAL OUTFLANKING. The strategical position now developing is a very curious one. It is a maxim of military science that to pierce an enemy's centre is to turn both his flanks at once'. But another maxim says that he who outflanks is himself liable to be outflanked, j The Germans arc driving in the Russian centre, and threatening to turn both their flanks from that quarter, but their own flanks are seriously threatened. At present neither movement has progressed very far, but if present tendencies continue the position of the Austro-Oormans in the centre will become markedly salient. In such a game, where each side possesses, and is trying to develop, certain marked strategical opportunities, the advantage usually rests with the side whose fighting strength is greatest. At present the Austio-Germans have the superiority of force, therefore we may expect to see them proeress still farther yet. But with all the world working hard to support them, the advantage in strength may soon pass to the Russians. In that case the tables will be turned, and a swift Aust.roGierman retreat will become necessary. Still more urgent will this be if Rumania, should strike in along the lines Paid down in Saturday's note?. Prediction is not the I business of military criticism. But if a j prediction were hazarded, it '.vouid be 1 (hat the present Austro-German offensive j is likely to suffer'the fate of that of the I German offensive in France . It will prol> j ably bo definitely held up when within j sight of the goal. i A LACK OF GRASP. j While- all this is probable, iioihing is I gained by confusion of ideas. A cable I contains some remarks by Colonel Rep.ii,;- ' ton, some of which are sound, whereas others show a. lack of gi-asp of the major ! strategy of the situation. He justly observes that the supreme merit of the Grand Duke and his subordinates wasthat they were deaf to threats, and entreaties, and insisted on withdrawing their armies from a dangerous position while still intact, with the result that they now occupy a plane front with safe lines of retreat behind them. But ho then goes on to raise again the preposterous analogy between the position of the Germ.m armies and that of Napoleon. It- is a remarkable example of the hypnotic effect of fixed ideas. There can bs no comairison nctween the situation ofa'i army w'th an efficient network of railways behind :t and that of an a'my whxn vms dependent for its supplies on transport uhich had to i toil hundreds of miles uvsr few and very bad roads—roads in nothing except the name. Colonel Repington claims that the Germans _ are repeating Napoleon's r.iisu.idcrstanding. The misunderstanding is entirely Colonel Repington's. He says that! the perplexing problem is •>. hethi.-r to halt until the spring or to embark on a -nir.ter campaign, with the object of capturing Petrograd and Kieif. Th«ve is lothing perplexing whatever in this question t 0 those who have grasped the few simple factors which go to make the major strategy of this campaign. The Austro-Ger-mans have now a hope of mpturing Petrograd, Moscow, and Russia's chief industrial districts; but it is a hop© which is rapidly fading before ther eyes. Consider the position. Austria and Germany are almost entirely dependent on their own resources, while Turkey is crying out to them for aid. But Britain, France, Italy, Japan, the United States, and all the ether neutral nations are now working hard to assist Russia with guns and munitions. If the enemy should postpone their grand effort against Russia until the spring they will find when that time comes that their opportunity has passed away, never to return. To seize their present chance is their one hope of anything like a successful issue to, the war. The rainy season will hamper them, but not the frost and snow. Everyone knows that frost and snow are much pteasahter and healthier than rain and mud for outdoor work. The Germans fought through all last -winter, and there is nothing to prevent them from fighting through this. The frozen snow will be no serious handicap to transport, as wheeled vehicles can be readily placed on sledges. There need be no doubt, therefore, that the enemy will face the\ unpleasant necessity of a winter campaign, and if Russia hopes to win she must trust, not to Generals January and February, but to the strength of her fighting forces, which she must strain every nerve to in- '. crease.

BAD JUDGMENT. It is ill-judgment on the enemy's pait to raise the bluff about invading Serbia again at this moment, when it is so abundantly clear that they -have iheir hands full. Not only does Athens report- that aGerman attack upon Serbia is "imminent," but wc iearn from Geneva that Austria has closed the Swiss and Rumanian frontiers. There was a tim© when, this simplo move would have set in motion a flood of wild speculation as to its meaning, and fearful and wonderful conjectures would have been cabled as to the new direction of tho Austrian attack which this closing of the frontiers was obviously to conceal. Wc are wiser now. The repetition of tho devico has rendered it stale. Much the same is true of the device of setting abroad by Bulgaria of reports, of the cession to her of tho Dedeagateh railway by Turkey. The latest example of the trick seems scarcely to have excited a remark, so flat' has it fallen. M. Radoslavoff, Bulgarian Premier, declares that Bulgaria has not accepted the obligation to return tho ceded territory to Turkey, as it is regarded as the price of r.tu-trality hitherto. A't least, so he is reported by the ' V'Otssisehe Zeitung.' It will be of but small credit to our diplomacy if Bulgaria, ever concludes an agreement with Turkey for the cession of the Dedeagateh railway. It- should be made clear to the former country that she will got just- what she fights for, and no more. Our most tactful diplomatist should he deputed to convey, in his silkiest tones, that the Allies will reserve to themselves the right to dispose of Turkey's possessions in the event of victory, and will decline to recognise any agreement which cedes territory to Bulgaria as the price of her neutrality. Nothing is gained by clumsy brutality of speech, and it is extremely undesirable to axitaaonis-s Bulgaria jvst now. But she should be left under no misapprehension of the fact that if she such an agreement the Allies will lie low, like Brer Rabbit, and "say nutria" vntil the straggle is ci«'id-?d. But then, if victorious. ' they will bluntly intimate -to Bulgaria : '' It is not consistent with our dignity to pull chestnuts out of the fire foT so insignificant a fragment of the earth's surface as yourself. Got- out!" Thus Bulgaria should be given to f imdersta-nd that oif she wishes to gain anything by the war she must make, a definite choice between one side and the other. And if she goes against us it should be with the. knowlodsro that shw does so at the risk of being wiped off the map. M. Ver.-pzelos. when interviewed, said that he intended to preserve a hermefcical silence. But he added: "I am endeavoring to regain my old path, and will get there. Acts, not words, are now needed, and, above everything, discretion until October." The "old path" referred to appears to bo the e-ndea-vor to re-establish the Balkan League, with the object of intervening and gaining Smyrna, for Greece. Certainly.-if any man can do this. Venezelcs is the man. He will be aided by Rusfiia's successes. THOSE FEROCIOUS HARES. A poacher in the Old Country, when charged by an estate owner with a breach of tho game laws, demanded in terms of honest indignation if he was to submit without an effort at self-defence to the attacks of the other man's ferocious hares. Just as has been anticipated in these, notes from the first, the German submarine commanders are putting forward similar excuses for the sinking of merchant vessels without warning. ' Naturally enough, America does not regard as adequate the German excuse that tho Arabic tried to ram the submarine, particularly as there is the evidence of the"r>ass?ntrers to refute the claim. But the German nation will eagerly grasp at such excuse;-., and we thus have at once the elements of a pretty dispute. _ If such an excuse is accepted bv America as sufficient, there is no ream'n why_ the. submarine campaign should not continue exactly on the old" lines: a pretence that an effort to sink the submarine was made being put forward whenever awkward questions are raised by America. _ On the other hand, it is an unquestionable fact that in giving warning a submarine runs a serious risk of being rammed, or sunk by gunfire. So that the temptation to sink'first and dwell on the ferocity of the unfortunate hares afterwards is an ever-r.rcsent temptation with the submarine commander, who naturally places the rafety of his own vessel first. The difficulty is just the natural result of Germany's lr.wless methods of warfare, and it is not one out of which we are under any obligation to assist her. "It is realised in America that the submarines need only declare that they feared attack in order to justify them in murdering non-combatants." Precisely. A little insight would have detected that at the start. In America it is anticipated that President Wilson will take strong measures—at least- by the more optimistic. But that gentleman's sternness is apt to be of a very Pickwickian character. A LOAN. Fortunately the Allied Financial Commission are taking steps to secure a big loan in America, and have already secured promises amounting to £150,0G0',000. If America has money to lend we might- as well avail ourselves of the opportunity to reinforce our war chest and redress the balance of exchange at the same time. The mere borrowing will not in itself redress the balance. It will be necessary to buy up the British bills of exchange throunh the bankers. A committee of the British Association, after reporting that Germany's ore-war debt was £1.000,000,000. and that thrro j s ]ik?lv to be an additional £1.500,000.000, goes on to state that the British will emerge in a better position from the war than the other belligerents will be skimmed may disadvantage as compared with the United States. The latter will have the cream, Britain the milk, and the other belligerents the skimmed milk. That the United States will have the cream and the other belligerents the skimmed milk may be granted. But how the debt of several thousand millions of pounds which Britain is likely to incur through this war can be described as "milk" passes imagination. Thp so-called debt of £1,000,000.000 with which Germany began the war really represents in large measure the capital of national railways. mines, forests, etc., and the capital of municipal undertakings like tho Dunedin tramways.