POSITION IN OTAGO

Evening Post, Volume CXXXVI, Issue 73, 23 September 1943, Page 6

POSITION IN OTAGO

O.C. DUNEDIN, This Day. The twelve seats from Waitaki southwards are at present equally divided between Labour and National, and the general impression which existed' at the beginning of the campaign that the position was not likely to be altered to the advantage of the Government has been confirmed by subsequent indications of the trend of public opinion. It cannot be contended, however, that the feeling of the electors has been revealed in any decisive manner. Election meetings have' been quiet and orderly, giving the impression that the audiences have consisted largely of the candidates' own supporters. Questions have been asked in a goodnatured way, and there has been almost an entire absence of the bitterness displayed at the two previous elections. The one outstanding feature has been the increased strength with which the National Party's case has been presented and the growth of public interest in it which the electors have displayed. This was exemplified in the fact that Mr. Holland was able to attract an audience of 2800 to the Town Hall compared with an attendance of 2000 at Mr. Fraser's meeting. National Party candidates have not appeared at any disadvantage in comparison with their Labour opponents, and, whatever the ballot-box may reveal, there can be no doubt that as a political force fne Nationalists have largely re-established themselves in this area. \ NATIONAL v. LABOUR. In the Otago and Southland districts the National Party will start at an advantage, as two of its candidates. Brigadier Hargest (Awarua) and Mr. T. L. Macdonald (Mataura), have been returned unopposed. For the remainder of the seats the contest will almost certainly be between National and Labour. Apart from any consideration of the qualifications of the candidates, the Democratic Labour platform ' has aroused little apparent public interest, and the Independents are not a force to be.reckoned with. Democratic Labour votes, it appears, will be cast largely to the disadvantage of Labour. Mr. A. H. Nordmeyer's Ministerial status may be expected to strengthen his position in Oamaru, -where he had a comfortable but by no means substantial majority at the last election. In Waitaki Mr. D. C. Kidd (National) had a very small majority at the last election, but it is considered that the figures on this occasion will be more decisively in his favour. . Labour candidates had no difficulty in winning the four Dunedin seats in straightout contests in 1938. On this occasion the results may be expected' to reflect the feeling of the electorate as a whole, the only other factor; being the improved qualifications of the National Parts'- candidates. In Dunedin South the Minister of Defence "(Mr. F. Jones) appears assured of a substantial majority. In Dunedin West, where Brigadier A. S. Falconer (National) and Lieut.-Commander P. G. Connolly (Labour), two men with fine war records, will have a straightout contest, the indications, unless there is a decided change in public opinion, appear favourable towards the Labour man. But if factors other than their allegiance to the Government are to play an important part, neither Mr. J. W. Munro, in Dunedin North, nor Mr. Peter Neilson, in Dun-

edin Central, can be assured of —his - return. Mr. W. A. Bodkin, in Central Otago, and Mr. J. A. Roy, in Clutha, appear to hold "safe" seats, and in Awarua Mr.-Adam Hamilton's service in the War Cabinet may strengthen his position. The strongest challenge to Labour in a city seat may come from, the Nationalist, Mr. W. Bell, in Invercargill, where Mr. W. M. C. Denham is the sitting member. In brief, the indications are that there will be little change in the Otago , and Southland areas, though one or I two gains by the Nationalists would not cause surprise.