AXIS STRATEGY

Evening Post, Volume CXXXIII, Issue 47, 25 February 1942, Page 5

AXIS STRATEGY

PROFESSOR'S FORECAST

INCURSION INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN

(By Telegraph—Press Association—Copyright.) LONDON, February 24. In an address specially interpolated in the Empire broadcast today, Professor Harlow, of the Ministry ->f Informauon, outlined the strategic situation of the war throughout the world and forecast the development of the Axis strategy in the next few months.

His picture made clearer the relative importance of the various theatres of war and showed their inter-reliance.

He pointed first to the central Allied core, composed of Russia, China, and India. Outside this core lay Germany and Japan. In the vest, Germany was holding a line from northern Finland to Libya. In the East, Japan flanked the core from the North Pacific to the Dutch East Indies, and was exerting considerable pressure in Burma and against Java, the sole remaining Allied stronghold in the South-west Pacific.

Outside this squeezing Axis ring was another ring, this time of ships—ships of the Royal Navy and the United States navy strained to the limit to maintain a blockade of the Axis countries and at the same time maintain intact our lines of communication. The Allies, through their navies and shipping, were able to maintain communication between the core and outer ring through the Indian Ocean, and so long as this avenue was kept open Axis plans would be frustrated.

Professor Harlow forecast that the Axis leaders would shortly launch a violent drive, to close the Indian Ocean to the Allies. Germany, striking from Libya and through the Caucasus, would endeavour to reach the Indian Ocean through Egypt, Irak, and Iran, and join up with Japanese naval forces which would try to break out from the China Sea. IF ENEMY PLAN SUCCEEDED. If they could succeed in this, Russia, having lost most of her oil resources in the Caucasus and being cut off from supplies coming up the Persian Gulf, would slowly strangle to death, especially if a German naval drive with her reassembled battle fleet succeeded in interfering with the Allied North Atlantic supply route. On the Far Eastern front Professor Harlow spoke of an attack by Japan on Russia from Manchuria as being a probability, with a renewal of pressure on the Chungking forces. In the [ 1 Netherlanas East Indies, he expected , a desperate attempt by Japan to re- : duce the ,Allied stronghold on Java.! While the Allies held Java, he said. I Japan was unable to use Singapore as a base for her projected incursion

into the Indian Ocean via the Sunda and Malacca Straits.

The problem before the Allies was a difficult one. It could be summed up in the questions: "Can sufficient naval forces be concentrated in the Indian Ocean to fling back the warships Japan can concentrate there? And, in doing so, can the vital North Atlantic supply route be kept open against redoubled German attacks?" On the reply to this depended not only the capacity of Russia, China, and India to carry.on the pressure against the Axis from the inside, but also the safety of the Allied forces massed in Asia Minor and round the Suez Canal, Professor Harlow answered the question with an emphatic "Yes," but stressed that it would be an immense strain. With the Indian Ocean kept open, he said, Allied production would ultimately win the day.