PEAK OF UPWARD MOVE REACHED

Evening Post, Volume CXXVI, Issue 80, 1 October 1938, Page 23

PEAK OF UPWARD MOVE REACHED

WHAT FIGURES FOR CURRENT SEASON SHOW

(By "Rangatira.**)

Totalisator turnovers in the Dominion last season remained so buoyant that one was still wondering, towards the close of the term, how long increases in the figures would continue. The upward move, however, came to ; a sharp stop at the commencement of the present season, and, although no definite decline has as yet set in, it is probable that in the near future one will find slight decreases rather the rule than the exception.^ The totalisator at present is hard pressed to hold last year's mark, which is evidence that the buoyancy that has marked race investments during the past four years or so is departing.

So well were the increases. maintained last season, even with a gradual falling away during the winter, that the completed term found the aggregate/in trie racing sport, nearly 15 per cent, above the previous season's aggregate. In actual figures racing clubs handled a sum of £5,283,766, compared, with £4,605,159 the previous season, which, was an increase of £678,607. Three seasons ago the aggregate for racing was only £3,505,998, and that "was nearly 20 per cent, better than four seasons ago. Such a momentum could hardly be expected to be maintained indefinitely, and it was in a way surprising that it continued for so long. EARLY DECREASES. When the present season opened there were immediate. declines, both in racing and trotting. There were very large crowds at Riccarton and Addington during the Grand National Carnival early in August, but at both the gallops and the trots the investments fell below last year's mark. The decrease at the Metropolitan Trots was aggravated much above what it would have been by ill-for-tune in the weather on the days the trotting was held. At most meetings subsequent to the Grand National Carnival there have been small increases, but up. till last weekend, when fine weather prevailed generally whereas twelve months previously this particular weekend : was very wet, none of the improvements had been substantial. An apparent exception was the New Brighton Trots; but last year this meeting clashed with the Test football match at Christchurch and the meeting was started at 10 a.m. Without last weekend both the racing and the trotting aggregates for the first two months of the season would have been slightly down on last year's figures. The sport of racing, for the first time in the new term, got its head just in front in the totalisator race, and the sport of trotting recovered much of its leeway with a substantial increase at Hutt Park. The following table gives a list of the meetings, both galloping and trotting, that have been held during the first two months of the present season, along with the figures for last season and two seasons ago for the purpose of comparison. The table is:— RACE MEETINGS. • 1936. 193 T. 1938. £ £ £ Poverty Bay Hunt 3,802 5,356 3,231 Canterbury 145,122 174,721 171,716 Pakuranga Hunt . 18,102 34,662 35,760 Otago Hunt 11,271 14,154 17,453 Combined Hunts . 17,242 24,974 27,105 Wanganul -.. 24,926 34,738 35,332 Ashburton 15,786 15,286 15,232 Foxton 9,250 13,539 12,295 Avondale : 42,587 68,341 62,910 Geraldine -..- 23,936 19,569 23,681. Marton ........ 9,569 10,955 ,16,146 Totals £321,593 £416,295 £421,861 1 TROffING MEETINGS. - ''■■"'*"" 1936. 1937. 1938. Metropolitan .... 102,435 130,0"46 113,903 Auckland 20,919 34,913 29,747 New Brighton ... 21,192 26,153 33,797 Wellington 10.627 24,409 29,050 Totals \.. i. £164,173 £215,521 £206,497 At this" period: last season the trend was towards an improvement of over 25 per cent., which was a maintenance of the rate during the previous winter. This is very different from the even going this season. Up till last week, Indeed, the figures were still showing a slightly negative trend in aggregate

in both racing and trotting, and the two totals combined are still some £ 3000-odd below last year's mark for the first two months of the season. BEVELLING MOVEMENT. The steadying of the trend, as is now clear, set in definitely last season. For the first two months the percentage of increase was near its maximum of 28. At the end of the next month, that is, till after the Labour Day weekend, it had dropped to just over 20 for the first quarter of the term. For the first third it was 18, and after the Christ-mas-New Year period it was down to 15. The early autumn saw a further falling off, but there was a temporary bump back at Easter, when the investments were up over 20 per cent, for the week's racing. The rate was steadier and declining during the winter. At th* Wellington Winter Meeting the increase was only 10 per cent. With the close of the season it was found that the percentage of increase for the whole term was about 15. At the beginning of last season it was forecast that racing clubs, without the assistance of trotting club totals, would about reach the £5,000,000 mark for the term. That mark was passed with nearly £300,000 to spare. There is a much greater uncertainty about everything at present this year, but, without any serious reverses, it seems that a £5,000,000 mark is again as high a total as the most optimistic official might hope to see the racing figures attain this.season. LIKELY FUTURE TREND. It is more than probable that the aggregate for the season will be lower than it was last term. The larger meetings are a better index to the general trend than the smaller. The Grand National Carnival, which is the only such leading index for the current term, gave a lower return, which could not be wholly set off by the weather, as the gallops enjoyed the most favourable racing conditions and the fields were well up to average in quality and size. The table of figures will convince many that the betting power of the modern racing public has now been fully tapped. It is clear that there is going to be no continued movement back to the "boom" totals of a few years after the war. In the 1920-21 season no less a sum than £7,979,595 was put through the totalisators on galloping alone, which was just over 50 per cent, more than last season. In the last season prior to the commencement of the depression, that is, in 1929-30, the aggregate for racing was £5,312,484, which is very close to last season's aggregate. It is finally doubtful if any change in the betting system can now press the betting power of the racing public .to yield larger turnovers. The Geraldine Club, for instance, changed over to wiri-and-place last week, but the increased return was not as large as that for Marton, where no such change was made.,- : When capacity limit .has been reached it is impossible to draw out more,.as betting and potential power to bet are coincident. If this limit has now been touched, as seems probable from an inspection of recent turnovers, it may be assumed that any trend in the future will be back from that maximum limit and thus towards at, least slightly-declining turnovers. Much, however, still depends on national and world events during the next month or two, which could bring about effects at present quite outside the realm of prognostication.