WOOL OF THE WORLD

Evening Post, Volume CIII, Issue 144, 21 June 1922, Page 11

WOOL OF THE WORLD

IS THERE ENOUGH TO GO ROUND?

SUPPLY BELOW DEMAND

SIR ARTHUR GOLDFINCH'S VIEWS.

Sir Arthur Goldfinch was British Wool Controller. He is now president of the British-Australian Wool Realisation Association, known as "Bawra.". In a recent communication made to the Dominion Government, Sir Arthur gave an exhaustive review of the wool position of the world, and he came to the conclusion that the wool supply of the world is below the consumptive demand. Our New Zealand wools consist of more than 87 per cent, crossbred, and*it is these that have suffered most in all the markets of the world, all attention being concentrated on the fine wools. They are recovering in price, however, and the outlook for them must be good,if Sir Arthur Goldfinch's deductions are even nearly correct. They ought to be, for he has had opportunities that no man has even had before of obtaining first-hand statistical information as to wool, especially that grown in the British Dominions, and he was in the South American wool trade for years before becoming- controller.

He regards the position of wool supplies as an interesting and perplexing subject. ' In endeavouring to arrive at the statistical position, difficulties are encountered at every point. The figures most accurately ascertained are those o{ the production of wool in North and South America, Europe, and the British Dominions, but even in the minor European countries the figures of _ production arc unreliable, and in Russia, and Turkey, and in Asia outside British India, they are to a great extent conjectural. , For the commercial and industrial purposes of Europe and America some part of this uncertainty is of no great practical' im-•• portance. Wool consumed in semi-civi lised or barbarous countries within their own borders with very primitive treatment may be ignored^ for our purposes, and only such quantities as are exported to the industrial countries need bo reckoned.

tic sources figures which will show with broad accuracy the movement of wool during 1921. The figures of wool production recently published by the American Textile Division, compiled princpally from Amercan official sources, are by far the most up-to-date and complete which have recently been prepared! I have gone through them very carefully, and with the exception Of a somewhat exaggerated estimate- of the production in Spain, I believe them to,be the closest possible approximation to the truth. The figures relating to the United States, England, Argentine, .Uruguay, the Union of South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, British India, and the principal countris of Western Europe may. be accepted as accurate. Those of the Balkan States and other minor European countries are by no means so reliable, and the figures relating to China, Russia, Turkey, and some other Eastern countries must to a large extent be conjectural. I have recast in an abbreviated form the useful comparative statement of the Textile Division of the estimated average production in the few years preceding the war and the estimated production, for 1921 as follows (in millions of pounds):—

"It will be seen," Sir Arthur Continues, " that a reduction of 300,000,000 pounds in the production of wool is estimated to have taken place in the world as a whole, with the exception of parts of Asia and European Russia, and Turkey. A further reduction of 243,000,000 pounds is conjectured to<-,have occurred in Russia and Turkey, and it is safe to say that, whatever the real reduction may be, the inhabitants of those countries have been compelled to dimmish their wool consumption to about an equal extent. Their trade relations with the 'outside world have since ths war been insignificant, and they are without the means to supply by , purchases . from abroad any deficiency in their own con•DinpUon. Witli the exception of the wool which is, no doubt, finding its w»y

Turkey and all Asia, except British India and China. If this total is comparedl with the available supplies of thosS countries above reckoned at 2,340,000,000 pounds, it. will be seen that the coemption ex-, ceeded the rfew, growth to the extent of 260,000,000 pounds. ' AUSTRALASIAN PRODUCTION. "The British-Australian' Wool Real-* isation Association published .on 23rd November, 1921, and on 13th January,1 1922, certain calculations leading up', tothe conclusion that in 1921 the consumption of Australasian wool had exceeded the production by 540,000 bales, equal to about 180,000,000 pounds. It has been claimed that in this calculation not sufficient allowance was made for the increase of invisible stocks during tho i twelve months. These invisible stocks were not abnormally large anywhere at the end of 1921, and in several countries they were certainly below the 'pre-war average. It is, however, probably true that the rectification of the abnormal shortage in stocks in Central;and Eastern Europe absorbed rather more wool during 1921 than was allowed for in the calculation referred to. The utmost deduction that can be made on that account is 50,000,000 pounds, making the net excess of consumption of Australasian wool 130,000,000 pounds. The visible stock , of wool grown in the Argentine, Uruguay, and South Africa, which are the other principal exporting countries, was reduced in the same period by an amount which cannot be accurately ascertained, but which was certainly not less than 100,000,000 pounds. The exports of tho two River Plate Republics during the twelve months ended 30th September, 1921/ very largely exceeded the wool grown during the same- period, and the exports from South , Africa were 230,000,000 pounds as against a clip of about 127,000;000 pounds. There was no compensating increase anywhere in the stocks of wool in, those countries which consume their domestic production, and there is sufficient basis therefore for stating that in all the commercial and industrial countries taken' togetlier, the consumption iii 1921 exceeded the wool grown during the same period by not less than 230,000,000 pounds. These figures, which have been arrived at by an absolutely independent process, tie up to a remarkable degree with the excess consumption of 260,000,000 pounds mentioned in the preceding paragraph. , THE HAVOC OF WAR. , 1 . "It is natural to inquire how far the reconstruction ')t. Europe and the teestablishment/ of orderly; conditipna in the

Average pre-war. 1921. tforth America 249 South America 587' 1461' Surope (less Russia and Turkey) 497 544 Uriea L; 210 177 Australasia 904 799 3ritish India 60 60 ]hina SO SO '■ 2640 2340 Jest of Asia and Euro- •'' ' ■; pean Russia and Tur- ; . .] key '511 3151 2608