THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume XCVI, Issue 43, 19 August 1918, Page 6

THE WAR

No marked change has occurred on the West front in the past few days; the events reported are in accord with the probabilities after the recent French successes. In the south of the battlefront the heights in front of Lassigny have been nearly, if not quite, mastered ; but so far the result anticipated in some quarters—a withdrawal from the positions between Roye and Noyon—has not-yet been recorded. The rest of thi» battlefront shows- little change; to use the now popular war-jargon, it has become "stabilised." Various small further withdrawals, notably in Flanders and on the Ancre front, have been made. The German attitude, as General Maurice points out to-day, has turned swiftly from offensive to defensive, and this outWard appearance is supported and given the aspect of reality by the recent changes in the German command. It remains to bo seen whether the Allies will undertake another offensive this season, but if they do, the enemy will probably give ground extensively as the result.

Since the Admiralty many months ago stopped the issue of weekly reports of the sinkings of merchant snipping public interest in the subject has undoubtedly become less. But the quarterly returns subsequently issued are really much more instructive to those . who study them. They move the heart less, but give better data for calculation; and the subject of tonnage should not be put aside as "dull," except when it happens to touch upon the shipping of New Zealand prodiice. It remains the key to the war; and promises to affect, perhaps to a yet unforeseen extent, the peace after the war. Notwithstanding the- unlimited effort which the enemy has spent to reduce the world's tonnage below a practical working level, he has failed. It is now possible to say, with something like unqualified confidence, that he cannot succeed. During the second quarter of this year the amount of tonnage of all nationalities lost from all causes was 946,578 tons, and the amount of new tonnage built was 1,243,274 tor.;;, giving a net gain of 296,696 tons.

This is the first time new construction has overtaken destruction, and the great importance of the event is that it is the result not of a spasmodic effort, but of the steadily and rapidly increasing growth in the output of the American shipyards. This is now contributing far more to the new phase than the diminished rate of loss, though the effect of that is also great. Britain's output, on the latest figures, remains disappointingly low; and with the lately increased necessity for diverting more men to the army, and the simultaneous appeal for a, greater production of coal, asy"tho most important of munitions," one can ha.rdly suppose that the labour problem of the shipyards is on the way to rapid solution. At sea, as on land, the world depends upon the United States, and that nation has applied the spur to her own flanks by undertaking, for th.c support of the army in Franco, a transport system far in excess of what was anticipated six months ago for the present stage of the war.

During the April-June 'quarter, Britain lost 614,818 tons, and replaced 442,852 tons, leaving a net loss of 171,852 tons for. the flag. In foreign countries (among which none counts seriously besido the United States in the matter of construction) the loss totalled 331,760 tons, and the replacement 800,303 tons, a net gain of 468,548 tons. Setting against this the net British loss, there is a replacement of- nearly 300,000 tons. During July, there were several reports about individual enterprises by submarines, and there was at the time some suspicion that the favourable course of events was about to suffer a set-back. Happily this proved groundless, and a few days ago it was announced that the July losses showed a still further diminution as compared with those in the preceding month. On the other side of the account, July, though an unfavouiable month, especially on account of holidays and an influenza epidemic, gave a British, output which was higher than that of June, and has only been exceeded twice (in March and May) since last November. The American figures for July represented a record; so that the current quarter has made a good beginning towards still more severely sotting back the career of the German* weapon.

' Favourable and impressive as these figures are, they do not tell a simple story of such rapid triumph over the Üboat as would be implied by the restoration of comfortable conditions in the 'matter of commercial transport. It is not clear whether the foreign output figures represent ships actually completed (as the British do), or whether they include also vessels only "built." But, assuming that they mean completed ships, it yet remains to be seen whether any of this new fleet is yet available for the common service of the world. During the April-June quarter the total net gam in tonnage was just under 300,000 tone. Prior to that period the total shipping of the world had been steadily declining. Yet by the beginning of June the United States had already over a million men in France, and had established a transport system to carry 300,000 men a month. Ships have had to be set aside to carry those men and supply them with food, clothing, and ammunition, and many million tons of ships are employed upon this vast work, and other newly increased duties which do not serve the civil populations.

The United States has sprung during the war from being a minor in the shipowning world to real greatness. According to an American newspaper, she possessed on Ist January over 9,000,000 tons of merchant ships, not counting those used for transport and service purposes. Since then, up till Ist July, about 1,000,000 tons more had .been added j hut by this time the tremendous commitments of the army must have made serious inroads into this vast store of ships, and it will continue to tax it more and more as the American Army grows. Hence the turn in the tide of shipping losses, in spite of the impressive American figures, may be a long time in making itself felt in the civil world. Its effect is being concentrated upon the battle-lines of Europe, and, as the statement of the American Secretary of State for War, published to-day, shows, America has had to be liberally assisted by the diversion of a large amount of British tonnage. Transport facilities govern all warfare; and the extent to which Allied intervention in Asiatic Russia, may be developed is also largely dependent upon shipping.