GERMANY AFTER THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume XCIII, Issue 48, 24 February 1917, Page 13

GERMANY AFTER THE WAR

INFERENCES FROM A CURRENT

PREDICTION.

Among the past week's numerous expert predictions as" to trade conditions after the war, one was of somewhat unusual character, yet came from, a noteworthy source (wrote the New York Evening Post on Bth Jannaiy). Albert Ballin, director-general of the HamburgAmerican line, and for many years the Kaiser's riglit-hand counsellor on maritime affairs, disagrees, with the view that a post-bellum boom will occur in the ocean shipping trade. This opinion is not of itself unusual. But what attracts attention in the Ballin interview is the reasons he assigns for his belief. He lays no stress whatever on the question of cargo-room, taken by itself. The depressing influences, from his point of view, will be the shortage of goods for export, high prices of raw materials and food supplies, and unfavourable rates of foreign exchange. These points have much larger application than that of shipping profits and ocean freight rates, and he is obviously speaking for Germany. If he is right, and goods for export from Germany will bo short, then the "flood of competing foreign merphandise " in our market, instantly on conclusion of the war, disappears at once.

On what he bases expectation of abnormally high prices for raw materials is not wholly clear. It has been believed that Germany must have full supplies of cottonl and copper, at any rate, before she can get. on. her industrial feet at all. If Ballin holds that her merchants will not be able to afford to pay the prices, that is only another way of saying that her industrial recovery will be long postponed. But most people would say .that Germany will buy such materials because oho must, and that prices, at least of tho metals, will certainly be lower after war.

Tho suggestion regarding . foreign exchange is highly interesting. It assumes continuance of rates adverse to Germany after peace. This is in fnct tho belief of all people who ascribe tho present 25 por cent, depreciation in Berlin exchange to inflation of the Gorman currency. But the inference is correct that, whatover is to be the depreciation after peace, German consumers will ha-ve to pay that much more, for all imported goods.