THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume XC, Issue 87, 11 October 1915, Page 6

THE WAR

Despite Germany's denials, the fact that she has been badly stung in the west is shown by the manner in which' she is endeavouring to retaliate. An offensive has been carried out against her with such effect that she is forced to hit back at a disadvantage ; and a policy that can penetrate the enemy's lines, and compel him to make costly and unsuccessful counter-attacks, is altogether successful. Losses, which generally preponderate on the attacking side, tend to become equalised when the enemy is so placed after an action that he must make desperate efforts to recover himself. In the nature of things as they exist on the western front, it is t impossible to expect a clean-cut penetration to the German frontier. Only one military expert has spoken of such a thing, and it is possible that he (Col. Maude) was misrepresented in the cabled report. If he meant that the French might penetrate " in a couple of months " from the Champagne to the middle Rhine, he raised hopes that can only be characterised as very remote. But the capture of Loos and Hill 70, of the Vimy heights, and of the high ground* at Tahure are solid and commanding gains. Germany in one voice belittles them, and in another emphasises them by ordering disastrous counter-attacks. This is not a war of sudden thrusts; to use a well-worn phrase, it is a war of attrition. Therefore, the GermanAustrian diversion in Servia will hasten the end. If, as would appear from today's cablegrams, it involves an invasion on a large scale, it represents so much subtracted from the power that Germany and Austria can concentrate against the ever-ready France and the reviving Russia. At time of writing, there is the usual conflict as to the facts of the German-Austrian attack on Servia. Such an attack must begin with the forcing of the river-fronts (on which depends the fate of the Servian capital, Belgrade) ; and its second development, if it is to succeed, must almost certainly be a penetration of the Morava valley, which is the gateway to Servia Proper. But as to the initial operations at the river-fronts, the German^and Servian" statements are contradictory. The Germans and Austrians claim to have penetrated at several points, but a Paris communique asserts that only weak forces of the enemy have reached the Servian bank. Among other successes, Germany claims that Belgrade has fallen, and that her troops have secured a footing in the Semendria area, which latter is a necessary preliminary to an advance by way of the Morava. Where tie cabled news conflicts, it is generally risky to conjecture. But in this case one feels inclined to draw upon the lessons of experience, and to suggest that, if an Austrian army was able to force the Servian riverfronts last year, it is quite likely that a German-Austrian expedition will be able to do the same. Considering the gains in strength and skill that must accrue to the joint undertaking, can one reasonably expect that it would fail at its first obstacle? And if it succeeds, Belgrade has probably fallan. It is unlikely that the Servians would attempt, in the circumstances, a protracted defence of their capital. All^ experience- indicates that the Serbs will make their main stand on lines further south. [A message received late to-day states that Servia admits the capture of Belgrade.] There is another reason why Servia would not seek a decisive battle along the Danube. A Rome message received to-day indicates that Servia has concentrated 100,000 men on the Vardar railway at Ghevgheli, to hold the counterconcentration of Bulgarians at Strumitza. How these positions stand towards each other, and towards the Vardar railway, has been explained. To Servia it was vital to protect her communications with Salonika, and she could not make a flank concentration on such a large scale and at the same time risk a decisive battle on the front, with reduced forces, against the heavily-armed expedition from Germany and Austria. Relief for Servia in the flank area is now flowing in from Salonika (32,000 Entente troops had landed by Thursday, including 5000 British), and, by the time the German-Austrians in the north are getting into the Servian highlands, the reinforced defending army will have a reception prepared. If Entente intervention, with its corollary of heavy irtillery, has not come too late, the Servian gateway may be made invulnerable, even by the Austrian 'siege guns. But the Vardar railway and the port facilities of Salonika will have to work their hardest if sufficient of the indispensable material of modern war is to be landed in Servia in time to resist the frontal j»6s«ttre- -of the - Gcman.A.tatriaaa and-

the flank attack of the army of Tsar Ferdinand. The Bulgarian offensive is promised by a Rome telegram within a couple of days. The argument (reported In a Greek 1 paper) between King Constantine and M. Venizelos (then Premier) mixes up two things — Greek military aid of Servia against Germany and Austria, and Greek military aid of Servia against Bulgaria. If Greece was not committed to the former, M. Venizelos broke no compact when, he named certain conditions — Ru manian co-operation, Bulgarian neutrality, ami British-French-Russian military help. But if. .Greece is committed by treaty to defending Servia against Bulgaria, tie case is entirely different. Russian reverses and the German- Austrian concentration on the Danube do not alter the treaty, and King Constantine's reported argument is beside the mark. If Bulgaria attacks Servia, the Greek King may 6tdll prefer neutrality, but he can find, no justification therefor in the line of policy attributed to the exPremier. The argument indicates that the King was at the time obsessed with the German idea, but the policy of the new Zaimis Government (as communicated by the Greek Minister to France) opens the way for a complete accord with the Entente. To the Entente Powers, says the Minister,. Greece will continue "sincerely benevolent," and he significantly states that Greece's "armed neutrality will adapt itself to the course of events." Rumania, according to another message, continues to hold up enemy munitions. On the whole, the Rumanian. Government and the new Greek Ministry present an attitude which, though non-committal, might well make Ferdinand of Bulgaria pause before he engages the Serbs, French, and British at Ghevgheli. The Turkish talk "about 'a league of power from the North Sea to the Indian Ocean, with Turkey and Bulgaria as the .middle links, is obvious clap-trap. _ Nothing would contribute more hastily to & suppression of Turkish and Bulgarian freedom of action than a German victory. One of the factors now to be awaited with interest is the development of Bul-gar-Turkish co-operation. Both Bulgaria's coasts (on the Black Sea and on the JEgean) are contiguous to Turkey, and once they were Turkey's. Will the Bulgars welcome the return of the Turks? In spite of the etory of the Turkish and Bulgar troops fraternising at Dedea-gatch, the enduring quality of .this affection may well be doubted. Strategically, however, Bulgaria would gain by Turkish assistance on these coasts, which represent her rear and flank respectively. Varna is again suggested as a submarine depot and raiding centre for operations in the Black Sea. Reverting to the question of the use and development of monitors (discussed in this column last Thursday), it will be noted that Mr. A. H. Pollen, according to cabled advice, agrees that these vessels can evade torpedoes, and adds that they can defy mines. In the case of light-draught craft this is understandable in the caee of anchored mines; except, perhaps, at low tide. He confirm* the statement that the Admiralty ha* been energetically building monitors.

«

The public will have an opportunity of seeing the members of the National Reserve from 'the south end of the city, parade through the streets to-morrow evening. The Tramway Band will play them through the town, and as a big muster is expected, they should make a really good showing. A dispute regarding priority in handling in a telegram at the telegraph counter in the General Post Office on Saturday resulted in the appearance before the Magistrate to-day of one of the disputants, who was charged with assault. The defendant was fined £2, and ordered to pay £2 2s medical expenses incurred. Hawkestone-crescent, at the head of which Mr. J. B. Harcourt's residence stands, is about three chains in length and contains less than two score bouses ; but from that small locality four boys who were partly reared there and played together met in the middle of August on the beach at .Gajlipoli — Tom M'Elligott (who won the championship medal for signalling in Egypt), Q.M.S. Len. Carmichael, Sergt. Fergus Galvin, and Pte. Bing. Ryan. Needless to add that the foregathering proved a pleasant one.