The Dominion. TUESDAY, MARCH 4, 1941. A CRITICAL BALKANS OUTLOOK

Dominion, Volume 34, Issue 135, 4 March 1941, Page 6

The Dominion. TUESDAY, MARCH 4, 1941. A CRITICAL BALKANS OUTLOOK

Events in the Balkans have developed rapidly and ominously. There is no longer any doubt that the Bulgarian Government, by its declaration of “adherence to the principles of tjie Berlin-Rome-Tokio Pact,” has placed the little kingdom unreservedly in the hands of the Axis and capitulated to every military demand made by Germany. Indeed, at the time of writing it has become a question whether this capitulation will or will not involve active participation by the Bulgarian forces in an enemy thrust toward the Aegean Sea. Troops are reported to be concentrating on the Bulgar-Turkish ’border. This being so the move not only appears to make a mockery of the recent vaguely-worded pact of non-aggression between Bulgaria and Turkey, but also suggests an undertaking by Bulgaria to protect the left flank of a German attack on Greece. The case of Bulgaria has been largely that of Rumania over again. But the probable consequences of permitting the entry of the German army, and providing a wider pathway for eastward aggression, are even more serious for King Boris’s people than they have been, so far, for the former subjects of King Carol. It is true that the German occupation of Rumania has been accompanied bypolitical venom and terrorism, bloodshed and oppression. But the country itself is behind the front line of a German thrust—buffered *by the southern Balkans. Not so Bulgaria. When Professor Filoff, the Premier, signed the protocol of “adherence” at the end of last week he committed his country to a hopeless future. If the Allies restrain a German advance upon the northern frontier of Greece, Bulgaria will become a battleground. If the Germans succeed in breaking through to the Aegean, Bulgaria will remain the seat of their operations—a Nazi-dominated and controlled outpost of the Reich.

The strategic effect of the so-far bloodless German penetration of the Balkans is undeniably far-reaching. It creates an urgent and vital need for the utmost solidarity among Britain’s allies and potential allies throughout the whole of the Near East. The bulk of the Balkans peninsula is under Axis sway. This places Yugoslavia in a most embarrassing territorial position. The invaluable assistance she could give to Greece and the Allied cause cannot—at least at present—be relied upon. On the east of the peninsula Germany has gained control of the entire coastline of the Black Sea from the Soviet frontier to the border of Turkey-in~Europc. This includes several important oil ports —depots for the _ important oil trade from the Russian-owned Baku fields. Today oil is more valuable than territory to the German war machine. It may even be that Hitler plans to concern himself first with an attempt to create and protect a direct oil route between Baku and the Reich rather than to rescue Italy from Greece.

Whatever the immediate enemy plans may be, ‘the trend of affairs—and the comment thereon in Axis countries —suggests a further postponement of the long-threatened onslaught against the British Isles, and a concentration upon the eastward drive. And whether the immediate German objective is the crushing of Greece or the unimpeded tapping of Baku oil for the expansion of the Luftwaffe’s programme of aerial frightfulness, the attitude of Turkey is a factor of immense importance. Turkey is in a position to assist materially in shaking either objective—-but particularly the latter—difficult and And for this reason the assurances that the Turkish Government is remaining uninfluenced by Nazi diplomatic pressure, and faithful to her understanding with Britain, may be looked upon as a strong/encouraging light amid the Balkans shadows.