AFTER ETHIOPIA?

Dominion, Volume 29, Issue 99, 21 January 1936, Page 16

AFTER ETHIOPIA?

A Disquieting American Prediction ITALY’S ULTIMATE AIMS A disquieting foreign view of Britain’s position in regard to the Italian and Ethiopian (Abyssinian) situation is published in ‘The Nation,” the article being written by Albert Viton, an American correspondent in Italy. Well-informed Italians have no illusions about the economic value of Ethiopia, Albert Viton writes. They realise that had Ethiopia been as rich as sensationalists would have us believe, England would not have abandoned the country in 1808, nor would the French company, Bayard Brothers of Roubaix, have given it up after sinking millions in exploration.

As a field for colonisation Ethiopia would not be productive either. Italian officials admit that Italy can hope to settle there in the next 25 years, not more than a million men, and even these would mean a tremendous expense in transportation—-not only of the men themselves but of their wives and families and equipment. Eritrea with its 4188 registered Italian residents and Italian Somaliland with 1631 prove that even a million men in Ethiopia is likely to remain a pious hope. What, then, is Mussolini’s object? The answer is not economic but political. Mussolini has embarked on an extensive campaign which aims to convert Italy into an empire. Ethiopia is to be the beginning; the Mediterranean, an Italian lake, is to be the end. In the eyes of Italian military and diplomatic leaders Ethiopia is destined to be the Italian Gibraltar, the foundation of the new imperial Rome. But where will Italy expand? The answer will sound fantastic outside of Italy, but it is a commonplace in the Duce’s realm. Mussolini expects to plant the Italian imperial lion on the cadaver of the British Empire. Almost every Italian to the plainest man on the street is convinced that the British Empire is either collapsing, or already dead and that it will take only a strong will on Italy’s part to inherit its greatness.

When I first heard this conviction expressed by a military attache, I refused to believe he was serious. But repeated contact with high Italian officials has persuaded me of the universality of this view. “Italy will blossom on on the'grave of the British Empire,” one very prominent Italian economist told me. Mussolini is to be taken at his word when he says that British opposition will not deter him. He is ready if necessary to fight England. He believes that the British Empire will collapse and that Italy can then occupy Egypt, Palestine, and most of British Africa. How widespread is the belief that England is already dead is illustrated by the bombastic and insulting banners which the Italian soldiers carried at their parade in Milan after the recent manoeuvres. “England, your fleet, and army are old and weak; our fleet and submarines and airplanes are new and strong and our army is young,” read one and there were dozens of similar inscriptions. A Roman lawyer told me in all seriousness that Italy could fight England because Marconi has invented a weapon which Would sink at a moment's notice the whole British fleet! Starting from this conviction, Mussolini’s imperial plans are quite simple: he expects to use the Italian colonies as sources of man power for the conquest of British Africa. Even for the Ethiopian war the Italians have already raised more than 100,000 coloured soldiers, and once Ethiopia is conquered they expect to have a colonial army of half a million. Their next point of attack is to be Egypt, which they hope to wrest from England within the next 25 years. Once Egypt is in their hands, and this means the Suez Canal, the entrance to the Red Sea — they already control the exit from that sea—they would hold a stiletto at the heart of the British Empire, India, and under this threat England would not oppose their occupation of Arabia. With Arabia an Italian colony, Palestine, Iraq, and Persia would be easy prey. After that it would only be a matter of rounding out the empire in Africa—Sudan, Kenya, Tanganyika, Rhodesia. But this should be noticed : the whole empire is to be built without touching the interests of either Belgium or France. This is Italy’s dream and the permanent basis of its foreign policy. At the moment, aside from the inevitable war, Italy is carrying on a tremendous pacific campaign of cultural imperialism in all Mediterranean countries and is trying to foment trouble in Egypt. It is spending hundreds of millions of lire annually on this campaign. I have spoken with an Italian professor just returned from Egypt, where he is kept by the Italian government to give free lessons in the Italian language and to lecture in schools and clubs on Italian culture. There are dozens like him. A few days ago I met a group of Egyptian boys brought here to Italy at the expense of the Italian government; they all wore the avanguardisti uniform. The government subsidises all kinds of minorities, prints pamphlets and books in the various Mediterranean languages which are distributed free of charge, and pays teachers, lecturers, and business men to spread Italian culture. Economically the Italians are supreme in the Mediterranean even now. The greater part of the Italian merchant fleet is engaged not in transatlantic service but in cruising the Mediterranean. And they may be supreme even from a military point o£ view. Informed foreign military experts stationed in Rome are unanimous in the belief that British supremacy in this sea is a thing of the past. When :i military attache told me that in case of war no British ship would be able to enter the Mediterranean, I pointed out to him that Gibraltar and the Suez Canal are still impregnable and that Malta and Crete and Cyprus are still well fortified in British hands. Ho admitted this, of course, and added that in his opinion no Italian ship would be able to leave the Mediterranean, but nevertheless he insisted that Italy controls the Mediterranean and that British ships would he at the mercy of Italian submarines and airplanes. . Once Mussolini’s imperial dream is recognised as the basis of Italian manoeuvres in Ethiopia, and the Italian belief in the imminent downfall of Britain is comprehended, it is easy to forecast how Italy will play its diplomatic game. Under no circumstances will Italy take hostile action against France or Yugoslavia. It. must maintain friendly nations on two sides in case England decides to close the Straits of Gibraltar. Furthermore, it will try to remain on diplomatic toxins with the Soviet Union, which might be a necessary source of raw materials. On the other baud, it will oppose with

(lie same determination it showed last summer any attempt at independence on the part of Austria, which must remain a gateway for raw materials on the Continent. The Italian front Is solid against Britain, mid the key to this auti-British attitude Is the belief that Britannia is doomed.