BRITISH POLITICS

Dominion, Volume 29, Issue 93, 14 January 1936, Page 6

BRITISH POLITICS

Election Results Reviewed BIGGER BUDGE! LIKELY Dominion Special Service. London, December 1. The National Government is justified in regarding the results of the General Election as an unqualified vote of confidence. It is true that there has been a considerable swing over of votes to the Opposition and that Labour has captured a number of seats in industrial ami urban areas. For this swing over, however, there are a number of very valid reasons, nor is any undue significance to be attached to it. In the panic election of 1931 the most optimistic forecasts of the National Coalition supporters fell short of the results which have been obtained four years afterwards.

Tbc party in power, particularly when its majority is so overwhelming as that of tho first National Goveriuneut, always suffers from the undue confidence of its supporters and the natural instinct of waverers and people of no settled political convictions to vote against the Government. It may be laid down as axiomatic that a Government with a large majority will always loeo seats in an appeal to the country. This was illustrated it? the byelections which have taken place during the last four years, and which all showed a distinct swing to the Left. It was illustrated again in the General Election by the reduction of tbc majorities by which National members were returned. It may bo said thou, that the Labour gains in the General Election do not indicate any real change in national feeling. What is of significance is the circumstance that National members have in many cases been able to hold the seats which were

most unexpectedly captured from Labour in the election of 1931, Voting True to Type. In general, industrial, trading and most manufacturing districts continue to support the Government. Constituencies with a predominating mining population have reverted to Labour. But there has been notable discontent among miners during the last few months and the election was immediately preceded by a strike ballot among the miners in which an overwhelming majority declared in favour of a strike in the industry. Moreover, in normal circumstances it is anticipated that the mining vote will be cast solidly for Labour. In the same way the electorate in the counties and agricultural constituencies may usually be relied upon to return Conservative members, except in the West Country, where there is a strong element of Libralism. Again, in Scotland, the Lowlands have a distinct tendency towards Labour, while the Highlands have always been a stronghold of Liberalism. Finally, South Wales, with a .population largely engaged in coalmining and shipping, is essentially i Labour, whereas the representation of Northern Ireland is uniformly Conservative. These areas have voted more or less true to type, and where there have been any incursions into them, these have been all in favour of the Government. These results have confounded almost all the prophets. The general feeling among best observers tended to a Government majority of not more than 150. Business was done by brokers on the basis of a majority ranging from 150 to 190. Lloyds, while prepared to underwrite the risk of a Labour victory on the lowest terms ever quoted, namely ten guineas per cent., fixed a premium of fifty guineas per cent., on a Government majority of 150 or under, and no more than twenty-five guineas -per cent, on a Government majority of 200 or over. Lord Rothermere, who is famous as one of the most acute prophets of election results, forecast -a Government majority of loss than 100. It may be that the extreme conservatism of these estimates was due to the anticipation of more apathy among Conservative electors, and in‘fact, the strongest appeals of the party leaders immediately before the election were directed against the confidence, which it was feared would keep many voters away from the polls. In fact, a noteworthy feature of the results is the fact that the Labour vote has in most cases remained static, whereas the poll in favour of Conservative and National candidates shows a distinct drop, and this in spite of the circumstances that there are more than, one million more electors on the register than there were in 1931. It may be said with some confidence that a higher poll would have meant only greater National Government majorities and in seme few cases the saving of scats from Labour challengers. Tlie IToniinent Fallen. The elimination of minor Opposition sections was expected, on the ground that their parliamentary effectiveness was negligible. Their most notable losses include Sir Herbert Samuel, leader of the Liberal Opposition, and Mr. Isaac Foot, whose essentially Nonconformist Radical constituency has after many years’ connec-

lion rejected him in favour of a Conservative. Among Government losses by far tlie most notable is the defeat of Mr. Ramsay MacDonald, who was rejected by an overwhelming majority by his old constituency of Seaham. There can be no doubt, however, that the reason for this result was a personal one. The charge of treachery to the workers has been freely levelled against Mr. MacDonald and no charge could be more detrimental in the North, where the loyalty of man to man is almost a religion. Moreover, the recent promotion of Mr. MacDonald’s son. to Cabinet rank at tlie age of 33 was regarded as a job by the more virulent sections of tlie Opposition. , In no constituency was more rancour displayed and less free speech allowed. Mr. Malcolm MaeDonald, too, was rejected, partly, perhaps, for the. same reasons, though Ins seat was recognised as precarious no matter who the Government candidate might be. The Opposition will be strengthened in quality more than in quantity. Several Labour ex-Ministers have found their way back to Westminster after an absence of four years. The results guarantee the continuation of the Government’s policy in the all-im-portant matters of foreign aud trade relations, in tariffs and in armaments. They may be looked upon as the precursor of a bigger Budget next year and perlmps a reduction of reliefs to taxpayers. (World Copyright reserved by London International Press.)