CANNOT BE FORETOLD

Dominion, Volume 24, Issue 200, 21 May 1931, Page 13

CANNOT BE FORETOLD

Earthquake Disasters

SCIENTIFIC OPINION

Earthquakes and the impossibility of predicting them with any accuracy were referred to by the president of the Ne\v Zealand Institute, Dr. C. Coleridge Farr, in addressing the annual meeting of the institute yesterday. . "The deplorable earthquake which happened in February last in Hawkes Bay lotuses our attention once more on these matters,'’ he said, "it must be realised -—indeed, it probably is realised —that New Zealand, like Japan, is in a region of the earth’s surface more liable to such disturbances than some others. We cannot help these things, but as scientific men we can point out what has been already learned and indicate the steps which should be taken to increase our knowledge. , , ■•Here 1 would like to say that at present whatever his pretensions may be, no one can predict these disasters. Localities where earthquakes are not unlikely can be indicated, but neither the exact place nor the time can be foretold. There are some who claim to be able to do so, but whose claim will not stand the light of scientific examination. Such persons very often do not even know the rudiments of scientific inquiry, and are in themselves very often otherwise ignorant. I do not say they are always charlatans, for I have no doubt that they have iu their own minds satisfied themselves they are right, but so are those who claim to he King George V or some other distinguished person. “These claims are not based on exhaustive scientific inquiry, and it is only by these means that the knowledge will conic which will enable us perhaps to predict those most disastrous events. That time has not yet come, but still much has to be ° “One thing that has been learned and has come out with startling clearness, both in Japan and in Hawke's Bay, is that where the earthquake occurs in thickly populated districts, the resulting fire is more disastrous than the actual quake itself. In these days of townplanning steps can be taken, and should be taken, to put in lire breaks so that the fire which is sure to start may find itself checked and unable to spread to other places not already alight. “It is Important, too, to keep a watchful eye on the fault movements always taking place. It is unfortunate for New Zealand that the main earthquake line in this country seems to run through the North Island, extending as it does from Hawke's Bay to the West Coast of the South Island.”