Labour’s popularity leaps in latest poll

Press, 1 August 1989, Page 7

Labour’s popularity leaps in latest poll

By OLIVER RIDDELL in Wellington The fortunes of the Labour Government, seemingly doomed to electoral defeat next year have been revived by an Auckland public opinion poll result. The week-end 89FM radio poll of 500 people showed that National’s 27-percentage-point lead over Labour a month ago had been reduced to seven percentage points. The poll showed the popularity of the Prime Minister, Mr Lange, had more than doubled and he has replaced Mr Winston Peters as the country’s most popular politician. The previous poll was taken in late June — a time of turmoil and disunity in Labour. Since then, Mr Lange has survived a “no confidence” vote in his caucus and the Government has produced a broadly acceptable Budget. A question in the poll on the Budget showed that 40.6 per cent approved, 36.7 per cent disapproved, and 22.7 per cent were unsure or had no opinion. As a result support for National had fallen from 60.9 to 50.2 per cent, while support for Labour had risen from 33.9 to 42.7 per cent. Support for the New Labour Party had fallen from 4.2 to 3.2 per cent, while support for the Democrats and Social Credit had risen from 1 to 3.9 per cent. The shift among uncommitted voters has helped Labour most in the poll result. A month ago the uncommitted totalled 31.7 per cent, but last week-end they totalled 20.9 per cent.

Like other polls, this one extrapolates party support to add up to 100 per cent. Party support has to be scaled down so that it, plus the uncommitted voters, make 100 per cent, to give a truer picture. When this is done, real support for National has fallen only slightly, from 41.6 to 39.7 per cent, while real support for Labour has risen sharply, from 23.2 to 33.8 per cent. These figures are explained by a real fall of 10.8 per cent in uncommitted . voters, of which nearly all have gone to Labour. The real gap of 18.4 percentage points between National and Labour a month ago has narrowed to a real gap of 5.9 percentage points. According to the poll, Mr Lange’s popularity rating has risen from 15 to 31.5 per cent and that of Mr Peters has fallen from 36.3 to 25.3 per cent. Also up are the Leader of the Opposition, Mr Bolger, from 8.8 to 10.8 per cent; Sir Robert Muldoon, from 5.7 to 8.7 per cent; and Mr Jim Anderton, from 3.1 to 3.7 per cent. Down are Mr Mike Moore, from 12.4 to 6.2 per cent; Mr Roger Douglas, from 10.4 to 7.9 per cent; and Mr Geoffrey Palmer, from 7.3 to 6.6 per cent. The method and small sample of this poll make its figures of lesser statistical importance than larger poll samples, but it is considered a reliable guide to trends and movement and support for parties and individuals.