Farmers’ confidence on rise

Press, 22 June 1989, Page 26

Farmers’ confidence on rise

PA Wellington Confidence among New Zealand farmers and growers is on the rise, according to a national Ministry of Agriculture survey of livestock farmers and horticulturists.

The survey, commissioned by MAFTech’s rural policy unit, asked farmers and growers to rate the next season as well as the next two to three seasons in terms of their expected gross incomes.

The majority of respondents said gross incomes would improve over this

time. The trend was most marked among dairy farmers, 83 per cent of whom are expecting an increase in income next season.

Sevety-seven per cent expect a rise over the next two to three.

Three-quarters of the kiwifruit growers surveyed expect their gross incomes will go up next season and 83 per cent expect incomes to carry on climbing over the next two to three years. In the long term however, most farmers and growers are still cautiously optimistic about

the future of agriculture. Just over half of those farmers and growers expecting a rise in income said the increase would be in the order of 10 per cent. Most of the rest expect a leap in gross income of as much as 20 per cent. In line with this renewed confidence, most farmers and growers say they will spend more on their properties in 1989/ 90 compared with 1988/9. In particular the survey points to a continued rise in use of fertiliser. The trend is especially

noticeable among sheep and beef and kiwifruit growers, although nearly all farmers surveyed say they will be applying fertiliser at maintenance or above maintenance levels. The majority of dairy farmers kiwifruit and pipfruit growers are also expecting an increase in physical production, while most sheep and beef farmers seem to be expecting much the same as last year. The consensus is that the lift in production will be about 10 per cent. The decline in sheep numbers appears likely to continue. As this happens

there is a corresponding rise in the numbers of beef cattle, dairy cows, deer and goats.

The survey also indicates that inflationary expectations have improved. The mean estimate of farm cost inflation over the next two to three years, across both livestock and horticultural farmers, is in the range of 5.5 per cent to 6 per cent.

The survey forms part of MAFTech’s June farm monitoring round, a sixmonthly update on the state of play in the agriculture and horticulture industries.