Statistics cause confusion

Press, 13 April 1989, Page 35

Statistics cause confusion

■ By DAVID MCCARTHY , The only thing certain t about the current battle | raging for the trainer’s * premiership is that at < the moment Graeme J Rogerson is winning. < No one seems certain ’ by how many and the ’ leading protagonists disai gree among themselves j on how great the differi ence is. j The whole exercise is j a reflection on what i seems a casual approach j by the Racing Confer- , ence to record keeping ‘ of this sort at a time j when it has great public j interest. | The situation in recent ; weeks has been almost t farcical. Last week the 1 Conference issued a i laughable set of statistics i on the trainers’ ratings I which were taken at face ! value by some publicaj tions. This list had ! Rogerson, for example, ; with 72 wins when he ’ was at least seven short ; of that. Among some of i the other embarrassing ; statistics include the j Gore trainer Rex Cochi rane being credited with

44 succeeses, a number he may be pleased to attain but which he is well short of at this stage of the season. The statistics had the McKee stable level with Busuttin on 57 wins when McKee’s true total was 42 and O’Sullivans on 66, ten more than their The Conference hastily withdrew the list with the excuse that a computer breakdown had resulted in manual compilation of the figures which led to the errors. The previous week the Conference had issued figures which bore no relation to the one issued a few days later and no one seemed to notice. The fact that these totals are not being monitored may be a reflection on the emphasis placed by the Conference on such statistics. Last year there was another embarrassment when Rogerson compiaind loud and long he had been short changed on the winning list and was ultimately proven correct. The explanation given,

that the computer cannot produce the right figures if there is any change in the information being fed it (such as one initial being left off a trainer’s name) is not good enough at a stage of the season when such statistics have considerable importance. Yesterday the Trainers’ Association, promoting their NRM Award Series, issued winning statistics up until Monday which showed Rogerson on 63 wins, the O’Sullivan partnership on 58, and Busuttin on 56. These figures are obtained by the Conference. Yet Rogerson was quoted as having trained 66 winners last Sunday and a further win at Blenheim would have him on 67 if that were correct That is the figure he believes is accurate. His keen rival, Busuttin, disagrees with each of those possibilities maintaining Rogerson’s total is 66, seven ahead of Busuttin himself, who is now one in front of the O’Sullivans — if the

statistics can be believed. The confusion which reigns at a late stage of nearly every season in recent years should not be difficult to resolve. Conference spokesmen have maintained in the past, with substance to the argument, that information sent in official books to be put on the computer is often the cause of errors. There is no quibble over an odd mistake (such as the one which credited Grant Davison with 100 wins a week before he achieved the feat because the relegation after an appeal of a horse had not been picked up) but the continuing variety of the statistics put out by Conference smacks of a cavalier attitude toward official records. With the $150,000 NRM Awards now at stake the Conference could be headed for something more than embarrassment if its figures are continually called into question.