Who, or what, would replace Gadaffi?

Press, 22 April 1986, Page 10

Who, or what, would replace Gadaffi?

By

JENNIFER PARMELEE

of the Associated Press (through NZPA) Rome What would Libya be like without Colonel Muammar Gadaffi? And without him, would it be any easier to deal with the country that the United States and other Western countries finger as an exporter of terrorism? Such speculation is fuelled by the United States bombing raid on Libya. The 44-year-old colonel has said his people could carry on in his absence. “The masses are now mobilised,” he said in an interview three months ago. “The people have their own authority ... they can go on without me.” But long-time observers of Libya and the Middle East are sceptical that any kind of "grass roots” government of the people

would prevail shoUld Colonel Gadaffi disappear from the scene. Many see the traditional military as the likely contender for power in the absence of any traditional Government apparatus or unified political opposition. Others say the revolutionary committees — radicalised, anti-Western groups that already compete with the traditional military for power — have at least an equal chance. Asked about the likelihood of the military taking over in Colonel Gadaffi’s, absence, Professor Fuad Ajami, head of Middle East Studies for the Johns Hopkins University, said: “When you have cannibalised the institutions and driven out the politically active classes ... you are left with the military as the only institution left to govern.” Lisa Anderson, a Harvard University specialist

on Libya, theorised that Army officers stepping into command might call on some of Colonel Gadaffi’s numerous exiled opponents to draft a constitution and hold elections. Ms Anderson said those opposition groups, which range from monarchists and Islamic fundamentalists to disillusioned former allies of Colonel Gadaffi, are “fragmented, institutionalised and — apart from common abhorrence of Gadaffi’s revolution — ideologically divided.’! But many observers inside and outside Libya feel the opposition-in-exile stands little chance alone of removing or replacing Colonel Gadaffi, even though its members reportedly have received sporadic support from the United States Government. Opposition to Colonel Gadaffi in the country is harder to gauge. The confrontation with

the United States apparently has broadened his support from “brother” Arab nations. Libyans demonstrate their support for him in the streets. Even the sometimes disenchanted military is said to have closed ranks. Rumours of power struggles, mutinies, and coup attempts swirl regularly through Libyan and foreign communities, but only rarely receive any tacit or official confirmation. Some diplomats believe such reports are floated by Colonel Gadaffi’s people to give the impression of his resiliency. But the ring of security around Colonel Gadaffi — his barracks headquarters guarded by anti-aircraft guns, the fleet of armoured Alfa-Romeos and jeeps, a bomb-proof cellar bedroom — indicates he is acutely aware of potential threats. Colonel Gadaffi surrounds himself with

trusted relatives and longtime friends. His righthand man and leader of the revolutionary committees is Major Abdel-Salam Jalloud. The head of the Army is Brigadier abuBakr Younis Jabir. Both were members of the Revolutionary Command Council that overthrew King Idris on September 1, 1969. Some council members, such as Muhammad Yusef Megarrief, have defected to become leading Gadaffi opponents. In November one of Colonel Gadaffi’s cousins, Colonel Hassan Ishqai, third-ranking officer in the Libyan Army, died after a bitter dispute with Colonel Gadaffi over foreign policy, according to Western sources in Libya. Although he was officially said to have died in a car accident, the sources reported talking to doctors who had seen his body full of bulletholes.

Asked at a news conference in January about reports of malcontents in his Army, Colonel Gadaffi replied sharply: "There are no such elements.” But in a later conversation he allowed that some of the military were disgruntled about his stated plans to disband the Regular Army and “put guns in the hands of the people”. “Every group wants to be the strongest,” he said. 1 The same could be said for the revolutionary committees, of which there are between 1500 and 2000 in the country. Their membership is made up mostly of young people steeped in revolutionary ideology, which is generally vehemently anti-Western or antiAmerican. Diplomats say they have infiltrated every level of Libyan life, much as Communist Party cadres have done in China or the Soviet Union.