Next eruption ‘likely to be big one’

Press, 30 July 1985, Page 6

Next eruption ‘likely to be big one’

PA Auckland Auckland’s next volcanic eruption is likely to be a big one, with up to 100,000 people and property worth $3600 million at risk. This is the scenario of an Auckland University scientist, Dr lan Smith. He told a seminar planning to meet any volcanic danger that the warning time of an eruption was likely to be short — from as little as a day to a week, using scientific warning instruments. Scientists could not say when the next eruption would occur, but it was likely to be anywhere within the present volcanic field which covered 640 sq km, and included more than 50 volcanoes. Many eruptions were comparatively small, but Dr Smith said the trend was towards eruptions spewing greater amounts of lava and ash. Volcanoes were a serious potential threat to metropolitan Auckland, said Dr

Smith. He discussed types of volcanoes including one which would cause largescale destruction within a 3 km radius of the vent. Lava “fountains” spewing material into the air would be a danger up to 1 km from the source. Falling ash could contaminate water supplies but was considered less of a threat if a volcano erupted in Auckland. No-one could say which area was likely to have an eruption, but an early warning system with seismometers was vital and three meters were to be installed to cover the region. The Auckland field stretches in a roughly circular pattern from Lake Pupuke, from Orakei Basin, Mount Wellington, Wiri, Mangere and Mount Albert. Dr Smith had one bright hope for Aucklanders living on a volcanic minefield — if Rangitoto erupted again (it’s once thought to have spewed out material for several hundred years) it could be turned into a tourist attraction.