The horrors of nuclear winter described

Press, 10 October 1984, Page 9

The horrors of nuclear winter described

New Zealand and other small island States in the Southern Hemisphere are best placed to survive the nuclear winter that would follow a large nuclear attack but even New Zealand people would most likely die, according to a visiting Australian atmospheric scientist.

Dr Barrie Pittock is a principal research scientist in the Atmospheric Research Division of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation in Australia. He is visiting New Zealand privately for five days with the sponsorship of Scientists Against Nuclear Arms and the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War.

He addressed a public meeting at the University of Canterbury last evening and tomorrow he will present a paper on nuclear winter at the Meteorlogical Society of New Zealand’s annual conference in Wellington. In Christchurch yesterday he said in 80 to 100 main cities in the Northern Hemisphere would be enough to start a nuclear winter.

The ensuing smoke would allow radiated heat from the Earth’s surface to es-

cape, but prevent heat reaching Earth from the Sun. In inland areas the temperature would drop 30 deg. to 40 deg. C. below normal. Oceans store heat, and if onshore winds prevailed, temperatures would not get so cold.

Within two ,or three weeks the smoke would reach the Southern Hemisphere, where it would first appear at high altitudes, before in wisps forming a full cover.

The cold temperatures would kill growing crops, Dr Pittock said, and people would lose most of their food production. “Sheep would experience severe cold stress and a lot would die of cold. Freshwater supplies would freeze over and the rest of the animals would die of thirst,” he said. Because of the heat of the fires the smoke clouds would remain high, too high to be affected by rain which would wash them clean. “Present estimates would say that it would last at least a few months and possibly a few years,” Dr Pittock said. “I suspect it is very unlikely that people would survive.”

Precautions against a

nuclear winter are “very unpractical,” according to Dr Pittock. People would have to store one or two years’ food and water. “To guarantee survival is to prevent its happening,” he said, “All non-nuclear Powers have a common interest in seeing that this does not happen because they are all threatened by it.”

Dr Pittock also believes that the smoke after a nuclear attack might increase the destruction of the ozone layer. “After the smoke cleared there would be increased

ultra violet coming through. The main effects of this would be biological: sunburn, skin cancer, and eye cataracts.”

The discovery of the nuclear winter came as the result of a recalculation of the effects of nuclear attack on the ozone layer in 1981., The first paper on the phenoma was written in 1982 and published later that year. From that publicity an international study group was formed to document the scientific basis of the nuclear winter and to determine how credible it is. “All recent findings support it,” Dr Pittock said. President Reagan’s science adviser has recently advocated the allocation of SUSSO million ($lOO million) to study nuclear winter, and the Soviet Union has expressed official interest in the international study programme which has so far met in Stockholm, New Delhi, and Leningrad.