Glut of energy embarrasses France

Press, 3 August 1983, Page 20

Glut of energy embarrasses France

By .

ALLISON MAITLAND,

of Reuter, in Paris

France’s huge independent energy supply, developed in response to the 1973 oil crisis, is turning out to be too much of a good thing. The Socialist Government is being forced to cut back France’s nuclear power programme, one of the world’s most ambitious, because energy needs have been greatly over-estimated and the country risks a costly surplus in the year 1990. In a July report, the govern-ment-appointed Long-Term Energy Group said: “Even if the economic recovery looked more definite and vigorous than the present scenario indicates, the capacity already installed would easily satisfy the growth in demand.” This abundance of energy is throwing up political, economic, and social problems that were unforeseeable a decade ago. A Government announcement last week that it would build two nuclear reactors this year and in 1984 and possibly only one in 1985,

after constructing three a year since 1981, brought widespread protest. The Centre-Right opposition lamented the cutback in an advanced industry that had saved billions of dollars on oil imports. The nuclear constructors warned of heavy job losses, while ecologists, opposed to nuclear power in principle, said that the Government’s failure to slash the programme even further meant wastage and colossal cost for the country. The energy Secretary of State, Jean Auroux, indicating that the Government was counting on an economic upturn, said that the Government still intended France to be at least 50 per cent selfsufficient in energy by 1990, compared with 35 per cent now. Some critics argue that the Government has avoided the politically difficult choices between France’s over-supply of electricity, gas, oil, and coal in the face of shrinking demand.

The Socialists inherited a large nuclear capacity from the CentreRight Government of Valery Giscard d’Estaing, which threw itself into developing an independant energy supply after oil imports suddenly became costly and unreliable in 1973. From 1974 to 1981, nuclear reactors came on stream at a rate of six or seven a year. There are now 32, providing nearly 40 per cent of France’s electricity, and 27 more are being built. The Socialists came to power in 1981 promising to curb the programme. They finally decided to cut reactor construction from nine to six over two years, a less drastic change than expected. Meanwhile economic recession — combined with energy conservation and lower consumption by many modern industries — upset predictions about French energy needs. A 1981 government report envisaged an annual economic growth rate of 5 per cent and forecast that energy needs in 1990 would be nearly 232 million tonnes of oil equivalent. This month’s Long-Term Energy

Group report, based on a projected annual growth rate of between 1.2 and 2.2 per cent, forecast that France would need only 178 to 200 million tonnes of oil equivalent in 1990, little more than last year’s needs. With its costly power stations already installed and the Stateowned Electricity of France (E.D.F.) supplier a showcase for the country’s advanced technology, the Government decided to concentrate on making electricity France’s number one energy. Despite the reactor cutback, Mr Auroux said E.D.F. would be given a billion francs ($127 million) in 1984 to expand both exports and domestic sales to industry. Critics say that the Government has not yet answered the question of which of France’s other energy supplies will be squeezed out in the narrowing market. Each choice open to the Government has its pitfalls. So far the Socialists have spoken only of a cutback in oil imports, which provide 46 per cent of France’s energy and cost it around 140 billion francs ($lB billion) a year. “Burning oil means burning

dollars,” one E.D.F. official said. Mr Auroux wants the oil share to be cut to a third by 1990 but he would also like to see France’s oil companies continue prospecting and convert their refining capacity in the face of growing demand for petrol rather than heavy fuel oil. Critics say that if the oil firms’ sales fall, they may choose to cut their refining capacity instead of converting it, thus forcing France to import more costly petrol. Cutting back on gas could be diplomatically embarrassing, commentators say. The Socialists, who recently signed long-term contracts with Algeria and the Soviet Union, are committed to gas imports of 30 million tonnes of oil equivalent in 1990, nearly 10 million more than last year’s consumption. Mr Auroux said the Government did not plan to renegotiate the deals. Energy analysts conclude that France’s loss-making coal industry will be the main victim of the latest energy strategy, an irony when the International EnergyAgency is pressing the West to expand its use of coal as the best petrol substitute.