Labour’s popularity in poll lifted at Socred’s expense

Press, 19 August 1981, Page 16

Labour’s popularity in poll lifted at Socred’s expense

Amid all the. turmoil of the Springbok tour, the’level of support for .the National Party remains unchanged. But Labour, continuing a climb in popularity that began between March and Mdy, has moved up four, points at the expense of Social Credit; - The-, present relative popularity of the political parties is shown in the latest “New Zealand Herald” - National Research Bureau poll'conducted between July 25 and 30, and it

Twenty-two- per cent of eligible voters are uncommitted . saying that they would not vote, or did not know, or refusing to state which party they would vote for — compared with 20 per cent in May. ’ The poll figures are subject to a maximum statistical sampling error of plus or minus 2 per cent.

The loyalty and switching patterns of current intending voters, with May figures in parenthesis,, are:

Of 1978 National voters, 89 per cent would remain loyal (89 per cent), 3 per cent would switch to Labour (3 per cent), 8 per cent to Social Credit (8 per cent). Of 1978 Labour voters, 77. per cent would remain loyal (76 per cent), 6 per cent would switch to National (6 per cent),-16 per cent to Social Credit (18 per cent), 1 per cent to all others (0 per cent). Of 1978 Social Credit voters, 76 per cent would remain loyal (83 per cent). 13 per cent would switch to Labour (9 per cent), 11 per cent to National (8 per cent). Of 1978 Values voters, 6 per cent would remain loyal (25 per cent), 44 per cent would switch to Labour (20 per cent), 21 per cent to National (34 per cent), 26 per cent to Social Credit (21 per cent), and 3 per cent to all 1978 Vote National

may reflect reaction to the Budget of July 9. Two thousand eligible voters-selected, by random-probability methods, fr.om-the 20 main population centres were asked: If an election had been held yesterday, which - party would you have voted?for- < A . The following list shows their answers, and compares them with the; results of previous polls and the 1978 General Election:

others (0 per cent). Of newly eligible voters, 49 per cent support National (40 per cent), 24 per cent Labour (177 per cent), 24 per cent Social Credit (41 per j cent). 3 per cent Values (2 per cent). ' Of 1978 non-voters who would now vote, 35 per cent support Labour (22 per cent), 45 per cent National (46 per cent), 19 per cent Social Credit (30 per cent). 0 per cent Values A (1 per cent), and 1 per cent all others (1 per’ cent). Support for National is at present highest in . Dunedin provincial areas, among voters aged 55 and over, and men: and lowest in Christchurch provincial areas, among 45 to ! . 54-year-olds, and women. Support for Labour is at present highest in Christchurch provincial areas, among voters aged 55 and over, and women; and lowest in Dunedin provincial areas, among 18 to 24-year-olds, and men. Support of Social Credit is at present highest in Dunedin provincial areas, among 18 to 24-year-olds, and men; and lowest in Christchurch provincial areas, among voters aged 55 and over, and women.

Present supporters of the main parties and the uncommitted group voted as follows in the 1978 election (read downwards): Labour Socred Uncommitted

TOMORROW: Does the rise of Labour popularity reflect in the popularity of party leaders? '

July 81 % May 81 •_ Mar 81 Jan 81 ' %. . Nov 80 Julv 80 Mav 80 Nov 79 Julv 79 • May Noy 78 » • 79 Election 1 National 42 42 ? 43 ' 38 38 40 41 38 36 33 40 Labour 34 30 27 30 30 39 38 39 43 ' 43 : -40 Socred 23 27 29 31 31 19 19 21 19 22 " 16 Values 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 ■ 2 j ; 2 ' All Others 1 1 - 1 1 ; .i'- 1 V;

% % '0 National 71 3 11 13 Labour 5 75 23 16 Socred 3 5 44 8 Values 1 3 2 1 All Others - 3 1 Did not Vote 9 8 7 53 • New Voters 11 6 10 8 The sex and age characteristics of current main party supporters and the uncommitted group are: National Labour Socred Uncommitted ; % % % Women 48 52 47 54 Men 52 48 53 46 18-24 year olds 20 < 16 27 24 25-34 year olds 22 20 26 18 35-44 year olds 16 15 17 15 45-54 year olds 14 15 15 18 55 t 28 34 15 25 Copyright, 1981 — the "New Zealand Herald"