THE PRESS THURSDAY, MAY 10, 1979. Raids into Lebanon

Press, 10 May 1979, Page 16

THE PRESS THURSDAY, MAY 10, 1979. Raids into Lebanon

The most dangerous conclusion that Israel could draw from its signing of the peace treaty with Egypt was that it no longer had to woiry about the security of its southern borders and could concentrate on fighting Arabs over its northern or eastern borders. Perhaps that is not an adequate explanation for what is happening between Israel and Lebanon now, but many Arab and other observers might think that it is sufficient. The raids of Israeli forces into Lebanon are intended to destroy guerrilla bases; i.ut that is not the way their intention or effect are viewed in Beirut or m Washington.

Israel has been provoked by raids into its own country These have been both savage and deplorable, though there have been times when even those among the guerrilla groups described as extremists have shown restraint. The Palestine Liberation Organisation seemed determined, for a period, to be regarded as a responsible organisation. The argument that violence can accomplish what negotiation cannot achieve is one of the factors that leaders of toe Palestinians have to face among their own people. If progress towards settlement can be achieved without fighting the hands of the moderates are strengthened; if it cannot be won in Inis way, the hands of those who prefer violence become the stronger. At the moment Israel seems intent on helping to range its enemies against itself. The alternative, of course, is to run the risk of more and more guerrilla attacks on Israelis, and these must be seen as a costly way of encouraging Palestinian moderates to persuade their more ruthless colleagues to yield in favour of negotiation. Guerrilla successes might even convince the Palestinians that negotiations will never be necessary.

The provocations against Israel do not seem to account for all its motives. The recent call by the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Begin, for peace talks with Lebanon and accompanying ideas of the removal of Syrian troops from Lebanon and the resettlement of Palestinians in other countries is

hardly to be taken seriously. Even in Tel Aviv, Mr Begin was accused of making dramatic and futile gestures. To outside observers it would seem more dangerous if Mr Begin believed that the gestures were to be taken seriously than if he knew he was posturing. It would suggest that Israel was determined to impose its own solution on the whole Lebanon problem. The raids would fit that theory. Israel has been arming Christians within Lebanon and has been giving them other support and encouragement. Israel’s attitude towards the Lebanese Christians is not shared elsewhere to any great extent. One of the arguments that Israelis face is that the events surrounding the persecution and extermination of Jews during the Nazi era could not be repeated today because of a more enlightened world and one in which communication has become easier. To Israeli eyes the Lebanese Christians were facing a similar situation to the Jews and Israel wondered why there was no outcry from the rest of the world. Israel would use this interpretation of what was happening to a group within their neighbouring country to further their own plan for a divided Lebanon.

The events in Lebanon will be closely watched by the Islamic countries now represented at a meeting in Morocco. The exclusion of Egypt from that meeting because of the peace treaty with Israel had to be expected. Egypt feels it can afford to be nonchalant about its exclusion and about any economic boycott because of the aid it is receiving from the United States. Yet the key io developments in the whole Middle East may not be found in Beirut, in Tel Aviv, Cairo, or Fez, Morocco,’ where the Islamic conference is being held. The answers may be found in Washington. The United States has no mean task in helping the Egyptian economy but, in time, the Americans may find that this conflicts with their relations with other Middle East countries from which it wants oil. The Israelis are testing American patience and they seem determined to find out how far they can go.