The Disunited Kingdom

Press, 2 December 1978, Page 12

The Disunited Kingdom

From the “Economist,” London

Late last month the starting gun was fired for referendums in Scotland and Wales; the House of Commons approved the orders for them to be held on March 1, 1979 (St David’s day).

The referendums are an extension the Government did not want to its devolution battle (the original draft legislation looked no further than Parliament for approval). They remain a hurdle at which devolution for Wales is quite likely to fall, and that for Scotland will be at risk because of the requirement that 40 per cent of elig i b 1 e electors vote “yes”. Polling will be two weeks after the new February register (electoral roll)

comes into force. The survey for the register W'as carried out in early October so it will be four-and-a-half months old come polling day. In Scotland this would mean, on last year’s figures, there would be about 26,000 dead votes to bury. With other subtractions for those on the register awaiting their eighteenth birthday, the twice-registered (principally students living away from home) and prisoners, about 100,000 votes will have to be taken away from a register of just under four million. As the referendums have only advisory force, Parliament need not be bound rigorously by the strict arith-

metic. But the credibility of the result is going to turn on that 40 per cent being achieved.- Last March 1 there were snowdrifts in Scotland. If God is an anti-devolution-ist, he will make it snow again.

The Labour Party is throwing itself into the campaigns, with only Mr Callaghan and his senior colleagues perhaps keeping some distance from an uncertain winner in the run-up to a General Election.

The Tory leadership, though, is keeping well clear, while some of it still strongly hopes for a “no” vote. Outright opposition would be unwise. Besides Mr Leon Brittan, the Tory devolution spokesman, was careful to remind the House of

Commons that he and his former boss, Mr Francis Pym, concede the need for constitutional change.

Unlike in the E.E.C. referendum of 1975, there are not just two state-plus-pri-vate-funded umbrella “yes” and “no” campaigns. There is some co-ordination at least between groups in the “yes” camps, but the Labour “noes” in Scotland and Wales are steering clear of the better financed business-cum-Tory campaigns. The Labour party has just given £50.000 to its Scottish arm and £35,000 to its Welsh for the “yes” vote.

This confusion puts newspapers and televison on the spot. Balanced coverage will not be got by an easy equaltime rule of thumb. It will be further complicated by the close direct involvement of a number of Scottish journalists. Indeed they virtually spawned one pro-de-volution party, the breakaway Scottish Labour Party.

No easier is the fact that the devolution to be voted on is so mealy-mouthed. No revenue raising powers to either assembly, no legislative powers to the Welsh one, and arbitrary retention by Westminster of a basket of powers including control of forestry and abortion — all make it hard to explain the assemblies in theory, let alone in practice. To top off a fine mess, the two nationalist parties will be selling a yes vote not as an endorsement of even quarterwav devolution, but as just a first step to independence. Voters will have to decide if they are voting for or against independence: another tier of local government: federalism: more money for Scotland; or the moon.