New Ethiopian drive

Press, 2 December 1978, Page 12

New Ethiopian drive

Such reports as are coming out of Ethiopia suggest that a new drive against the Eritreans is under way. The recapture of an important road to a Red Sea port is significant. After the drive against the rebels, who were assisted by Somalis, in the Ogaden Desert, the Addis Ababa Government was bound to turn its full attention to the Eritrean rebels. They have been fighting for autonomy for about 16 years.

Soviet and Cuban troops openly helped Ethiopian troops in the Ogaden. The Cubans, and possibly even the Soviets, are in a quandary over help against the Eritreans. The main Eritrean rebel group is the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front, which is completely dominated by a Marxist-Leninist leadership. The Cubans, rather more fundamentalists than the Soviets in their Marxism. appear to be playing no part in the drive against the province of Eritrea. The Soviets are playing a role that is at the most muted, though their equipment is being used by Ethiopian forces.

The Soviet Union is probably aiming to obtain access to a port on the Red Sea and is willing to bend its ideology to suit its strategic concerns. Even so, it will want to back a winner because its policies in northern Africa have not been working out well. From a time, when the Soviet Union has had chances in half a dozen Middle East and North African countries, it has been reduced

to strong influence in only one; South Yemen. It certainly has influence in Ethiopia but it is in no position to describe Ethiopia as a success story yet. Besides the military endeavours, the Soviet Union is reported to have been attempting to bring about a diplomatic solution for Eritrea by proposing a Marxist grouping. Eritrea, however, would then have far less autonomy than it has been fighting for. The West has much more reason to worry about what is happening in southern Africa than in northern Africa, at least on strategic grounds. The Soviet Union has chosen to associate itself with what may be reasonably described as a collection of criminals running Ethiopia. It has proved itself ham-fisted in dealing with less volatile Governments and may almost be relied on to make a mess of its Ethiopian policies in the long term, if not in the short run. Further south in Africa, much more is at stake. The worst aspect is that the Organisation of African Unity seldom sees fit to pronounce on matters of vital concern to Africa, for fear of offending one of its members. Yet there is really no alternative to that. African affairs have to be solved by African countries. The West has to encourage the O.A.U. to play a more active role over Eritrea in the hope that more sense will corpe out of southern Africa as well.