The great ‘domino’ debate in Western Europe

Press, Volume CXVI, Issue 34132, 20 April 1976, Page 17

The great ‘domino’ debate in Western Europe

(By

MOHSIN ALI,

Reuters diplomatic editor, through N .Z.P.A.)

LONDON, April 17. The reaction on the European side of the Atlantic to Dr Henry Kissinger’s domino theory on the spread of communism in Western Europe has varied from deep concern to irritation and scepticism. It has certainly made Government Ministers, politicians, diplomats, and news analysts sit up and take heed' of his warning that the United States opposes the sharing of power in Western Europe even with those Communist parties that appear to be independent of Moscow. Dr Kissinger told a gathering of the American Society of Newspaper Editors in Washington, that Communist participation in a West European Government would be a historic change which would have long-term and very serious consequences. Western diplomats concede that a Communist presence among the 15 countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, the lynchpin of Western defence. would complicate the workings of the alliance. This would be particularly true for N.A.T.O.’s Nuclear Planning Group, the alliance's top-secret nuclear strategy body. A permanent member of ’ this is Italy, which may be heading for a General Election which could bring the Communists to power in Rome in about two months time. Very different reactions to Dr Kissinger’s domino theory were reflected in leading articles in two London newspapers. The Right-wing “Daily Mail.” under the heading, “Kissinger tries to wake up

the West,” said that the Secretary of State believed that if there was a substantial Communist participation in Western governments it was inconceivable that the United States could maintain ground forces in Europe. “The question is: How many governments, and how substantial?”, the newspaper asked. It added: “If Italy goes half Red, would the United States call that enough to scuttle N.A.T.0.? Surely not. N.A.T.O. has already survived a Communist phase in Portugal without lasting damage. Kissinger’s apocalyptic warnings should make us wake up, not give up.” But the liberal “Guardian,” in its leading article, headed, “Kissinger’s Italian doom watch,” said that the car-workers in Turin were not going to read his domino theory speech, and that even if they did its effect would probably be counter-productive. “N.A.T.O. exists to defend democracy,” the newspaper said. “There is nothing, therefore, that N.A.T.O. could properly do to interfere with the democratic process. Dr Kissinger, and everyone else, would have to wait the results of an Italian election and assess them afterwards.” The Great Domino Debate has now been publicly joined by the West German Chancellor (Mr Schmidt), who, on television, has expressed concern about the ability of some West European States to govern themselves: but he does not regard Communist participation in them as inevitable. The Chancellor argued that the present weakness of Europe was the internal political weaknesses of several governments. However, he did not consider it inevitable that governments with

considerable Communist influence would be formed in Western Europe. "The N.A.T.O. alliance has endured the participation of Communists in two of its member-States, Iceland and Portugal,” he recalled. In a rare public criticism by a West German leader of Dr Kissinger, Mr Schmidt said that the American Secretary of State should ha-, e been" more restrained in the way he spoke when he sa'd that the stationing of United States forces in Europe would be unimaginable if there was a strong Communist participation in West European governments. “One should be restrained, even when one is the foreign minister of the greatest and most important Power in the world and, at the same time, the leadir g Power of our alliance,” he observed. The domino theory controversy may be touched on next month, when the N.A.T.O. Foreign Ministers, including Dr Kissinger, hold their annual spring session in Oslo to review East-West relations and the defence preparedness of the alliance. Reuters correspondents in various European capitals sum up the impact of Dr Kissinger’s pronouncement as follows: ROME The almost daily warnings from the United States Administration against the spread of communism in Western Europe, and particularly in Italy, are registered in Rome with a mixture of concern and irritation. While the press, from the Left to the Right, has rejected America’s constant barrage of warnings as an interference in Italian internal affairs, the Government has carefully avoided any

direct confrontation with Washington over the issue. The country is now preoccupied with one of its most dramatic economic and political post-war cris es, and a painstaking process of finding a way out of the present dilemma, short of bringing the inert :asingly powerful Communist Party into the Government. The repeated warnings from President Ford and Dr Kissinger are thus considered in Rome as c ounterproductive and inopp ortune, and news coverage of the subject has been moved into the inside pages. PARIS France’s moderate Conservative Government is disturbed by the prospects of Communists comin g to power in neighbouring Italv, but French officials, think that Dr Kissinger’s Emropean domino theory is somewhat far-fetched. The domino theory grew out of . American concern about South-East Asia, and the French believe that it is simplistic to draw parallels between that poor, underdeveloped part of the world and highly-industrialised Western Europe. “To roll out this old theory about Europe is perhaps dangerous and probadblv unrealistic,” one official said. But although the French see an element of Presidential election politics in the most recent of Dr Kiss inger's warnings on thev are aware that the ev»ents in Italy could make a deep impact. Many Frenchmen believe that a Socialist-Communist government would not work in Paris: they base t’his belief on the evidence that French Socialists, despite the Left-wing alliance, are essentially anti-Commi mist.

BRUSSELS Diplomats at N.A.T.O. headquarters think that the impact of any Communist coalition in Italy, Portugal, or France would depend, in the end, on the American reaction, not the European response. On the military side of the alliance, General Alexander Haig, ’Supreme Commander, N.A.T.O. Forces in Europe, has expressed grave concern at the blossoming of the West European Communist parties. In Belgian Government circles, scepticism about Dr Kissinger’s suggestion is mixed with an element of annoyance that the United States feels so free to comment on the internal affairs of its Atlantic partners. “We agree that a Communist presence would cause some head-scratching for the N.A.T.O. strategists, but we do not accept that it is inevitable,” one official said. “Indeed, we think that the Spread of communism can easily be contained in France, whatever the outcome in Italy.” LUXEMBURG For Luxemburg, its Prime Minister (Mr Thorn) has said that he believed the European Economic Community would suffer if coalitions containing Communists came to power in E.E.C. member-countries. "I think that such a Socialist Government, by reason of its revolutionary ideology, would not help integration,” said Mr Thorn. THE HAGUE The Dutch Prime Minister (Mr Den Uyl) has said that he sees no objections, in principle, to Communist participation in any West European government.

He was recently quoted in an interview in the Italian weekly, “Espresso,” as saying that he felt the problem should not be approached as a matter of principle. “Adopting a standpoint must depend ou the concrete circumstances in which the Communists would attain power,” he said. He explained that this meant a victory in free elections with a clear mandate from the people. In addition, there should be a precise declaration of preparedness by the Communist party in question, that it would at all times keep to the rules of democracy and leave the government after a defeat at the polls.

“This means that a Communist party wanting to take part in a West European government must officially undertake the obligation to accept the will of a majority of the people and their legally elected representatives as decisive,” Mr Den Uyl was quoted as saying. STOCKHOLM Official sources in the Swedish capital describe Dr Kissinger’s domino theory as overstated and too rigid. They say that they see nothing particularly new in his statement.

The Swedish Prime Minister (Mr Palme), in a speech earlier this year, referred directly to the possibility of the domino theory applying in southern Europe, the Communists assuming a democratic disguise in order to take power. But he pointed out that the Soviet Union Communist Party had stiffened its ideological posture, while ideological tensions were also reflected in the delay in convening a conference of European Communist parties. Mr Palme, who has just discussed relations between

European Communists and Social Democrats in a fivehour private meeting with the Soviet Union Prime Minister (Mr Kosygin), raised the question of Moscow also embracing a domino theory. “What would happen if the ideological disintegration in the West European Communist parties spread to Eastern Europe, and notions of a Communism with a human face were once again to gain ground inthese countires?” Mr Palme asked. “Actually, it is a fascinating thought: two infinitely strong super-Powers each pondering over its set of dominoes, with the pieces set up so that the other can see them, fearing the change in the status quo that might emerge from the ideological struggle and the demands of the people.” MADRID There has been no official, or press, reaction in Spain to Dr Kissinger’s statement. The question of Communist Party participation in a future Spanish Government is somewhat moot, because the party is outlawed, along with all other parties except the Francoist National Movement, and Government Ministers have made it clear that they intend to maintain this situation even after other Opposition parties are legalised sometime in the near future. LISBON Dr Kissinger’s warning has made little impact in Portugal, largely because attention is focused on Portugal’s, election campaign for a Legislative Assembly. Opinions similar to his were prevalent in Lisbon last year, when it seemed that the Communists were unstoppable in their drive to seize position of power.

However, the apparent lesson that to allow the Communists a tiny foothold in power leads to eventual Communist dictatorship has been disproved by events in Portugal. Concerted attacks on Communist offices throughout the country by rioters, an upheaval in the armed forces, and an election in which non-Communist parties won hands down, all contributed to a backlash which swept the Communists from ail major positions of power — at any rate, for the time being. MOSCOW CONCERN Over the last few weeks the Soviet Union has expressed concern over what it considers growing American interference in West European politics. While the Kremlin would welcome any reduction in American influence in Western Europe, and probably the rise to power of Western Communist parties, too, it has repeatedly expressed displeasure at the ideological independence of the two main Western parties, in Italy and France. The Moscow ideological chief, Mr Mikhail Suslov, launched a scathing attack on “national brands” of Communism shortly after the twenty-fifth congress last month,'where the Western parties emphasised the need for each country to develop its own style of Communism.

“The fundamental principles of Marxism have international significance,” Mr Suslov said. “Therefore, everything the opportunists present as some regional or national version of Marxism have . nothing in common with revolutionary theory, and do harm to the cause of working classes.”