Italy's election may mark Europe's turning point

Press, Volume CXVI, Issue 34131, 19 April 1976, Page 13

Italy's election may mark Europe's turning point

(By

CHRISTOPHER MATTHEWS,

N.Z.P.A.-Reuter correspondent)

ROME, April 18. Amid resignation, despair, and incomprehension, Italy is preparing for an early General Election that may mark a major turning point in modern European history. A maze-like sequence of political impasses has brought about a crisis in which, apparently, only a near-miracie can prevent the election being held in midJune. But in a sense, timing is immaterial. The root issue remains the same, whether the election takes place in two months time or at the normal end of the present legislature, next spring. That issue is: Will Italy’s electors vote the Communists to power, and so set off a chain reaction that mayspread in Western Europe? Whatever the merits of *>r Kissinger’s new “domino ’ theory, it is possible that if the Italians elect a Commun-ist-led Government, and ; t functions smoothly and reasonably, the French might be tempted to elect a Social-ist-Communist Government in 1978. and other nations might vote similarly thereafter. The sight of 56 million Italians living normal lives under a Western-style Communist regime might not only serve as an example to Western democracies. It I

might also — and that is Moscow’s worry — “contaminate” a number of Eastern European capitals. Violence likely So it is hardly an exaggeration to say that the impending Italian elections represent a political event of momentous importance. A recent Rome opinion poll forecast that in elections held now, the ruling Christian Democrats would scrape barely half the votes they won in 1972, and end third behind the Communists and the Socialists. But predictions of electoral intentions tell only part of the story. A more important consideration is that the climate of the coming election campaign may be so brutal, violent, and extremist as to make any cooperation between Roman Catholics and Marxists inconceivable. The mysterious “Red Brigades” who made their first appearance in last May’s divorce referendum, have already been at work raising fires at Fiat’s factories in Turin. Arsonists styling themselves the “Proletarian Action Squad” have struck at warehouses of a giant de-partment-store chain. The trade unions are setting up a defensive system of workers’ “vigilante” squads. The battle lines are already being drawn up. Collision course

No-one can say who is responsible for political vio-

lence in Italy. — Rightwingers masquerading as Leftists to provoke a Rightwing backlash? Left-wingers striking at the Left on the assumption that the Right will be blamed? Yet every popular ballot since 1972 has been marked by violence. A head-on, all-out collision between the Right and Left is in the making. The veteran Christian Democrat, Mr Amintore Fanfani, who warned Sicilians last May that divorce would not only open the way to pornography and euthanasia, but encourage lesbian affairs between wives and housekeepers, has been brought out of the wilderness to lead the party through the election. This is widely being interpreted by the Left as a sign that the Christian Democrat right is preparing to launch a steamroller “red scare” campaign. One question that arises is whether it is likely that, after such a campaign. Communists and Christian Democrats will sit down to do business together as though nothing had happened. Historic compromise The last thing the Communists want is to be manoeuvred into leaving to form a popular-front Government with the Socialists. For them, as for the Socialists, this would represent a last resort. The opinion polls indicate that the two parties, which won 47 per cent of the vote in last June’s regional elec-'

tions, will improve their performance next time round and should be able to achieve a slim majority. So, if the polls are right and the Christian Democrats refuse to join the grand coalition that is the Left’s declared preference, there will be no alternative but to set up a Communist-led Left-wing Government. The Communist Party leader, Mr Enrico Berlinguer, with the example of Chile fresh in his mind, is desperately anxious to stop it coming to that, even at the cost of holding off an election he knows he could win. Good excuse Officially, the communists’ reasoning is that this crisisridden country can be effectively governed only on the basis of the broadest possible consensus — a grand coalition with the Christian Democrats which they refer to as the “historic compromise.” But there are other equally important considerations, apart from the sheer vulnerability of a weak popular front regime. One is that a grand coalition would prove more acceptable to the Americans, whom the Italian Communists are anxious not to alienate. The other is that an alliance with the Christian Democrats, would provide a useful excuse for Mr BerJinguer and other moderate Communist leaders to resist; pressure from their own! Left wing, and from Moscow. i