BABY BOOM PREDICTED

Press, Volume CXV, Issue 33934, 29 August 1975, Page 5

BABY BOOM PREDICTED

| (N.Z. Press Assn—Copyright) WASHINGTON. Two population experts say the unprecedented decline in America’s birth rate is ending and a new. baby boom may be on the way. If it materialises, responsibility for the boom will rest with women who decided in the 1960 s to postpone having their children, steadily pushing the United States fertility rate to its lowest level ever. But two Californian* demographers, or social statisticians, say they see evidence that these women—now in their late 20s and early 30s —still intend to have children, and will begin making up for lost time.

i “In sum, our evidence suggests that the American I birth rate may have bottomed out, and that the country is likely to see a rise in reproduction.” June Sklar and Beth Berkov wrote in an article in “Science” maga- ; zine. Sklar is a research demo-) grapher at the University of; California at Berkeley and Berkov is a demographic; analyst at the California i State Department of Health.; ! They said their study was) ■based on 1974 California: |birth statistics, which were; imore recent than those avail-! |able for' the country as a; ■ whole. The conclusions were) checked against data from) i other states, and they believe i I trends seen in California'will) ■be found elsewhere. America’s most recent baby■ iboom came in the 19505,: when the nation’s general fertility rate reached 3.7 children per woman in 1957. Many communities were hard ■ paced to keep up with pro■viding schools, for example, ) and teachers were in demand. The fertility rate began a gradual decline, reaching 1.9: children per woman in 1974,, the lowest rate in the i nation’s history. 1