BRAZILIAN UNREST ECONOMIC “MIRACLE” SHOWS DEFINITE SIGNS OF STRAIN

Press, Volume CXIV, Issue 33520, 29 April 1974, Page 12

BRAZILIAN UNREST ECONOMIC “MIRACLE” SHOWS DEFINITE SIGNS OF STRAIN

MARVIN HOWE,

(E

reporting to the “Neu l York Times," from Rio de Janeiro.)

(Reprinted by arrangement)

As they face endless lines for milk and vegetable oils. shortag< > of rice and sugar and inaccessible prices for meat, many Brazilians have begun to ask what became of their ‘‘miracle.” the economic achievement of a decade of military government: heady industrial development ar,-I controlled inflation at the same time. The questioning is important to the future of Brazil. It is the first serious problem for the nation’s new President. General Ernesto Geisel. who assumed office only a month ag". And the economic difficulties are compounded by their inevitable political consequences.

For U) years, Brazilians have endured repression of basic democratic liberties in return for economic improvement. Now the situation seems paradoxical: Just as the regime appeared ready to restore some political liberties, many Brazilians have become economically dissatisfied and are making political demands greater than the Government seems willing to grant. The result, for the moment, is both economic and political unrest.

General Geisel is the most (recent legatee of the military i take-over in 1964 that was. 'basically, a middle- and upper-class movement directed against the popularly elected, leftist President Joao Goulart, soaring inflation and the rising demands of the workers. The military men and their technocrat aides who have governed since have concentrated on two aims: development and security.

Press freedom and legal guarantees have been quashed, the political life of the country truncated and social development often neglected. But the authorities, in defence of their policies, point to the handsome growth statistics. Last (year the national product (increased at a rate of 11 per (cent, one of the highest in the world, and has averaged about 10 per cent over the past five years. Foreign investment was $3.6 billion last year and it is expected to double this year. Foreign reserves stand at a high $6.4 billion. At the same time, inflation has come down from a peak of 100 per cent in 1964 to 15.5 per cent last year, according to! official statistics.

The country still has all the signs of boom times: construction projects, labour shortages and industrial vitality. An aggressive foreign trade policy has pushed not only the traditional coffee and sugar but also shoes, pharmaceuticals, vehicles and computers, all over the globe. The aid and trade push in Latin America, particularly in Chile. Bolivia, Uruguay and Paraguay, has brought accusations of imperialistic designs. Brazilian authorities shrug off these charges and aspire to world power status as befits the country’s size (larger than continental United States), population of 104 million and natural resources.

The new Finance Minister (Mr Mario Henrique Simonsen) has pledged to pursue these growth policies but faces an.entirely new situation. Brazil imports 80 per cent of its oil and expects to have to pay $3 billion for oil imports this year. This means necessarily more exports, new shortages on the local market, continued containment of workers’ salaries and a rise in discontent.

President Geisel, former head of the national oil enterprise, Petrobras, is fully aware of those possible political effects. For several months, as the Government’s presidential candidate, he quietly initiated a policy of “decompression” or a relaxation of the previous authoritarian controls. His aim: to broaden the regime’s support and to bring in other sectors

■to share responsibility for limpending problems

General Geisel and his chief aides met critics of the regime among the press, intellectuals and the Roman Catholic Church. and promised to ease censorship, end tortures and other police abuses, and give a greater voice to congressmen, students and workers.

In his first major policy speech the week after taking office, without actually criticising the former Government of General Emilio G. Medici, President Geisel said that corrections and adjustments were needed. He acknowledged that serious regional disparities persist between the “flagrantly underdeveloped north and north-east and the fairly developed south and centre.” He said the gap between rich and poor was too broad.

The Finance Minister. Mr Simonsen, bears this out in his book “Brazil 2001.” In 1960. he says, the lower half of the population held 18 per cent of the wealth and the top 5 per cent held 27 per cent. By' 1970. the bottom 50 per cent held only 14 per cent and the top 5 per cent held 36 per cent.

At the beginning of this week, on the tenth anniversary of the military take-over, the Brazilian press published glowing accounts of stability and economic development. There were also grave reports on the state of education, health and the arts.

Infant mortality has increased from a rate of 62.94 per thousand children in Sao( Paulo in 1960 to 88.28 per thousand in 1970. Forty mil-1 lion people w’ere said to be undernourished and nearly

•.half the country’s cities with]out running water and ;i sewers. i “The country has such (serious social problems that i the regime. n.> matter how I (noble Geisel’s intentions, (won’t be able to relax con- : trols for long,” a Roman ' Catholic lay leader declared. Press censorship “Censorship is worse than ever.” .Mr Fernando Gas- ■ parian, publisher of the main opposition weekly, “Opinao.” declared. He pointed out that ■censors had even slashed j President Geisel’s policy (speech — the section on the (need for a better distribution of income. I Brazil’s leading daily. (“O Estado de Sao Paulo.” which has led the fight for la free press, continues to publish classical poetry in |the censored spaces and its sister afternoon newspaper. (“Jornal da Tarde,” fills its spaces with recipes. The only improvement in (the press was the appearance (of the newsmagazine "Veia" without cuts, an indication that its censor had been ipulled out of the newsroom. ( At the same time, the i Minister of Justice (Mr (Armando Falcao) announced the prosecution of an opposition deputy. His crime: denouncing the presence of General Augusto Pinochet, head of Chile’s militaryjunta, at President Geisel’s inauguration and attacking General Pinochet’s reported plan to create an antiCommunist axis grouping (Chile. Brazil. Bolivia and Paraguay. If convicted under (the National Security Law. the errant deputy could get ifrom two to six years in I prison.